Valentine’s Day. It conjures up images of chocolates, flowers, and cards. I hope if you have a significant other you get them something to show your appreciation. After all, it’s nice to be on the receiving end but even more satisfying to be on the giving end.
Now for a little tough love. Read the rest of this post — it might be a wake-up call. I hope it’s a wake-up call. And apply for the Trading Challenge today so you don’t get duped into buying lingerie stock just because it’s Valentine’s Day.
Above all, avoid the Cupid’s Arrow play. (What it is and how to avoid it later in this post.)
If you search for information about stocks to watch this Valentine’s Day you’re gonna get a bunch of fluff. Except here. I’m keeping it real. I can pretty much tell you what you’ll find …
I mentioned chocolates, flowers, and cards already. Guess what recommendations you’ll find for stocks to watch this Valentine’s Day?
Did you guess chocolate companies? If you did, you guessed right. Let’s think about this for a minute. What else might someone give on Valentine’s Day? Jewelry? Lingerie? (Men, this might be a bad idea because it’s more for you than her. Seriously. Think about it.) Shopping trips?
What else might you do hanging out with your partner? A weekend getaway? Binge-watch Netflix? Go to the movies or the theater? Check out a concert? For the less romantically inclined, maybe it’s a trip to your local Costco? (I’m cringing at this as a Valentine’s gift, but I know someone who did it once and it made his wife completely happy. Whatever.)
What gives?
According to the National Retail Foundation, expected average spend for Valentine’s Day 2019 is $161.96 per person. The total? A whopping $20.7 billion! That’s a pretty big shot in the arm for retailers and e-commerce sites.
You’d think this would be great for the share price of companies involved with Valentine’s Day, right? And so the articles and blog posts become very predictable …
Almost every article or blog post you read will mention 1-800 Flowers.com. I put the link there so you can buy some flowers for someone — not because I think you should trade their stock on Valentine’s Day.
You’ll find recommendations for Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Bodyworks’ parent company L-Brands. You’ll see recommendations for Hershey’s or Rocky Mountain Chocolate Company. You might find recommendations for travel stocks like Expedia. You’ll see Berkshire Hathaway Class B on the list as they own See’s Candies and a chunk of Cadbury’s.
What I’m trying to say is that most of the bloggers and finance sites want to make their Valentine’s Day stock picks somehow tie in with …
… Valentine’s Day.
Makes sense, right?
Wrong.
I’m a trader. I trade stocks on the move — with price action and a catalyst. I look for former OTC runners breaking new highs. I look for patterns. This is what I teach my Trading Challenge students and it’s what I want to teach you.
Maybe the stocks above and the other dozen or so unimaginative stocks you find will be in play. And maybe they’re great for buy-and-hold investors. But it’s not my thing and I can’t, in good conscience, tell you to buy stocks just because it’s Valentine time.
So, about Valentine’s Day…
I’m taking a contrarian view. I’ve got a bunch of haters on social media and YouTube. This is what they hate. Transparency. Honesty. Reality. This video is not specifically about stocks to watch on Valentine’s Day. But it’s pretty funny because of the reactions I got from some in the audience. And in the comments below the video.
I tell the truth about the way trading works.
(To the best of my knowledge based on two decades of trading success. I’m not a financial professional. If you want “safe” Valentine’s Day stock picks, see a financial professional. Most of my haters don’t have two nickels to rub together. I’m being very nice right now for my lawyers. What I’d like to do is tell my haters to [deleted for lawyers’ blood pressure]).
Stock Trading on Valentine’s Day
Yes, the markets will be open for a full day of trading on Valentine’s Day. Cupid’s arrow can’t stop that from happening. Quick aside here: the markets will be closed for President’s Day on Monday, February 18.
The markets only consider holidays as the days they’re closed. Valentine’s Day isn’t one of those days. That includes the NYSE, the Nasdaq, and the bond markets. So buckle up for another day of trading. If you’re in study mode then strap in for another day of studying.
History of the Market on Valentines Day
Historically, the stock markets consider Valentine’s as just another day on Wall Street. The Dow has closed up roughly 51% of the time on Valentine’s Day since 1897. The S&P 500 has closed up roughly 40% of the time since 1928. The Nasdaq has closed up roughly 64% of the time since 1972.
Before you start thinking “Well, it’s obvious: Choose stocks on the Nasdaq on Valentine’s Day for an easy win,” let me hit you with another dose of reality. Because I like reality — and since you’re still reading I think you appreciate honesty. The fate of the index has almost nothing to do with that trade you’re about to make.
While it’s true that roughly three-quarters of stocks follow the overall market trend on any given day, that still leaves a lot of room for error. Anyway, I hope you approach trading like a sniper. Plan your trade. Execute your trade. Get out when you’ve hit your goals or mental stop loss.
Keep Your Heart Out of Valentine’s Day Trading
What if I told you logic rules all so you should keep your heart out of it? I hope you’d tell me I was nuts and the markets are not efficient and not logical. Then I hope you’d tell me that this is a clear advantage you can gain over other traders in the market and …
… that you’ll heed my warning.
The stock market is inefficient. It’s not logical. And it’s a battlefield. Sometimes it’s completely ruled by chaos. Which is why I pay attention to patterns and cut losses quickly. It’s all the more reason to keep your heart out of it. Not just on Valentine’s Day. Every day.
Develop self-discipline. Create a trading plan. Trade your plan. If you need any help with this process (and you do) then apply for the Trading Challenge. Even if you’re an experienced trader and you want to refine your process or stop blowing up accounts.
Heck, I can’t tell you how many students I have who come to me with years of experience and years of bad habits. They have to unlearn the bad habits — and a lot of the time the bad habits go against my ‘keep your heart out of it’ advice.
Here’s a few examples:
- Revenge trading (“I have to win back my losses.” Instead, take the rest of the day off. Then learn the lesson from the bad trade.)
- Trading with leverage. (You might as well flush a stack of Benjamins down the toilet. Maybe the lottery is a better option for you — because by trading with leverage you can also lose more. Maybe more than you have.)
- “This stock is the next Microsoft.” (Stop! If you fall in love with one of these companies then Wall Street Cupid shot you in the ass. It’s not the next Microsoft.)
So keep your heart out of it. Don’t trade angry. Don’t trade with leverage. And for the love of everything you hold dear, don’t fall in love with a stock!
There are enough ups and downs to learning the skills I teach without living in some fantasy world. Valentine’s Day is no different. Assuming you’re following the rules (some of you aren’t and it makes me want to scream) then trade on Valentine’s Day as if it’s any other day.
Now I’m going to give you some stocks to watch on Valentine’s Day and they have nothing to do with what every other lame-ass post out there is saying. Major caveat here: I’m writing this a few days ahead of time. By Valentine’s Day these stocks might not be in play.
Here’s a huge hint: I’m getting these stocks from the screens built into StocksToTrade. It’s always my starting point. I’ll explain more about StocksToTrade below because it’s totally badass. And remember, none of these stocks is the next Microsoft …
5 Stocks to Watch: Valentine’s Day
#1 LifeApps Brands, Inc (OTCPK: LFAP)
LifeApps acts as a developer and publisher of apps for the Apple App Store, Google Play, and Amazon Appstore. There’s a lot of chatter on Twitter and in chat rooms about a possible partnership. There’s a bit of pumping going on as well. It may or may not be promoters pushing the stock.
Here’s a chart of LFAP showing last Friday’s trading and how it opened this week. Even though it looks like this one is back on the way down, I dip bought the morning panic for a $511 gain.**
LFAP went on my watchlist over the weekend based on the price action on Friday. Notice the huge trading range the first minute after the market opened — the long grey candle shadows go all the way from $.01545 up to $.1465 (its February 8 high) in one minute! The bulls and bears were locked in battle.
LFAP might be completely out of the action by the time I upload this post. But there’s a good lesson to be learned from it: These stocks can move very fast. Learn the patterns. Paper trade on StocksToTrade. Watch the Trading Challenge webinars.
#2 Turner Valley Oil & Gas Inc (OTCPK: TVOG)
Turner Valley Oil & Gas announced a new $4 million investment round back on February 8. You can see from the chart below the news caused the stock to spike. It’s been a little choppy since then but seems to be staying above support levels in the $.027 range. The main issue with TVOG at the time of writing is the drop in trading volume.
#3 Natural Shrimp Inc (OTCQB: SHMP)
Natural Shrimp has been running ever since January 29 when they announced a new environmentally friendly method for growing and harvesting shrimp. I’ve bought and sold this one a few times on the way up. It keeps surprising me. No idea how high it could go.
Before the announcement, it was trading in the $.01 to $.015 range. As of writing, it’s hit a new high of $0.9376 and is up nearly 38% on the day.
Here are two charts — the first is a one year chart with one-day candlesticks:
This one is a two-day chart at the time of writing. Notice the big morning gap up and spike followed by consolidation:
#4 Nightfood Holdings Inc (OTCQB: NGTF)
This former runner was elevated to the OTC Venture Market as of the day of writing. Last Friday (February 8) NIghtfood announced they’d won a product of the year award. Best thing is … it’s ice cream. How’s that for a Valentine’s Day stock to watch? Good ice cream with good news and a big price move! Lingerie be damned!
Let’s look at the one-year chart first. Notice it’s a former runner hitting new highs:
And now the 2-day chart with 5-minute candlesticks:
#5 Sears Holdings Inc (OTCPK: SHLDQ)
How the once mighty has fallen. Who would think Sears could end up in bankruptcy and trading as a pink sheet stock? Well, they have. It’s been a pretty dire year for Sears stock, but check out the chart below.
On news about the underfunded pension plan being ‘an asset rather than a liability,’ the stock is spiking. Look at the last 3 candles on the right side of the chart. As I write it’s still going up. Almost as romantic as that Costco trip, right?
Each of the above charts and stocks showed up on screens I set up on StocksToTrade. There are a lot more — I picked some I’ve traded and some I’m still watching. My point is, if you want to know how to find stocks with potential quickly and easily, there’s no better tool than StocksToTrade.
Take Advantage of StocksToTrade Features
What is StocksToTrade? If you’ve been following me for a while you already know. If not, it’s my favorite stock screening and trading software on the planet. Especially for penny stocks. Full disclosure: I helped develop StocksToTrade. It was developed to my exact specifications. And we’re continuously making it better.
The reason I got involved is because I spent years trying to find the perfect software and having to use multiple sites to get what I needed. Sometimes this meant having 10 different websites open at once on multiple computers.
StocksToTrade has everything in one place:
- Advanced charting tools — including multiple screen options so you can see a stock in more than one time frame with almost any technical indicator you can imagine.
- Stock screens (including all of my favorites) — all the better to screen for stocks using the same criteria I teach you in the Trading Challenge
- Custom screener options — because we all develop our own style and focus on one or two strategies. Setting custom screens saves you time finding the perfect stocks to fit yours.
- News — finally, news about penny stocks right on the platform you use to screen and trade. You’ll be hard pressed to find this anywhere else.
- SEC filings — you need to learn to read SEC filings if you’re serious about trading. With StocksToTrade, you can read the filings right from the same screen with the chart. Sweet.
- Twitter feed — Twitter is one of the largest online spaces for traders to share their ideas, their trades, and their research. Now you can see who’s tweeting about that stock you’re considering adding to your watchlist.
- TipRanks — See what industry analysts have to say about any stock. Are they buying or selling? Bearish or bullish. All in one place …
StocksToTrade is like the supercar of penny stock trading. Get StocksToTrade here.
Conclusion
When the stock markets open tomorrow, on Valentine’s Day, it will be like any other trading day. Keep your head about you. The classic poem “If” by Rudyard Kipling comes to mind …
“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting, too …”
That poem is all about equanimity. I don’t recommend the part where it says to “risk it all on one turn of pitch and toss.” You don’t have to do anything like that. Join the Trading Challenge and learn risk management skills and self-discipline instead. But the overall idea of the poem — nice.
Are you a trader? What are your thoughts about trading on Valentine’s Day? If you’re still new to trading, what did you learn from this post that you can use in the future? Comment below. I love hearing from you!
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