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How I Called Dow 30,000 in 2020 — Back in 2008

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 1/4/2023 11 min read

Finally! The Dow 30,000 milestone fueled by a COVID-19 vaccine rally. What. A. Day. I LOVE it! Keep reading to see the video where I called Dow 30,000 back in 2008. (And why you shouldn’t try to predict the stock market.)

Check out the DIA ETF one-year chart…

dow jones 2020 chart up to 30k
DIA chart: 1-year, daily candle, DOW 30,000 — courtesy of StocksToTrade.com

This should make more people realize just how amazing this market is and that we’re living in a special time in history.

Google Dow 30,000 and you’ll get nearly 15 million search results. From Forbes to MarketWatch, financial sites and blogs started writing about it in mid-January. That’s when the Dow first crossed 29,000. Everyone was making guesses about when it would cross 30,000. It’s a financial pundit’s dream to be the one to perfectly call it.

Check out these headlines from earlier this year:

From NBC news…

The Dow at 30,000: What investors need to know

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And from Fortune…

The Dow will hit a historic 30,000 sooner than you think

Here’s another from Investor’s Business Daily…

Dow 30,000! How It Happens In 12 Months (Or Less)

MarketWatch used this headline…

Charting the Approach of Dow 30,000

And then there are the people out there who so badly want attention they buy vanity plates years in advance. The Wall Street Journal ran an article with this headline…

Forget Dow 30K. It’s Already Hit 40K on License Plates

Everyone wanted in on it. And why not? It was kinda cool that the stock market looked like it was ready to break through the milestone. It’s human nature to keep track of milestones. And it’s human nature to try to predict when it might happen.

How the Pandemic Spoiled the Dow 30,000 Party

If it wasn’t for the pandemic, the Dow might have hit 30,000 months ago. At first, the market seemed to shrug off the pandemic. Frankly, I was surprised. Then, as reality set in, the market crashed.

But crazy as it seems, the stay-at-home culture turned more people into day traders than at any time in history. We saw a beautiful bounce off the March 23 low that turned into the best 100 days in stock market history.

By early September, the Dow made it back over 29,000. Again, people started playing guessing games. Most pundits agreed it should happen within 12 months. But you’ve gotta remember that most of the time, the pundits are wrong.

Human Nature and Milestones

I don’t like guessing games or milestones. But it’s human nature. Not only do we like milestones…

… we’re addicted to predictions. Think about that for a moment. And there’s some evidence that people who make predictions don’t have to be right very often. Get it right once in a while and their followers believe every prediction they make.

The pundits on financial TV are a prime example. How often do you think they get it right? Not very. But we flick the switch on the television every day and listen to what they say.

They’ll tell you when they got it right….

Predicting DOW 30,000

I just have to sit back and laugh for a variety of reasons. But the big reason is…

I called Dow 30,000 in 2020 … back in 2008. 

I know that sounds weird, and it is. Anyone who’s followed me for a while knows I don’t make predictions about the market and I don’t like guessing games.

I’ll come back to it. First, let’s take a look at ‘Dow 30,000’ specifically as a way to demonstrate why you shouldn’t believe what the pundits say…

The headlines I showed you above are just a few of many thousands you can find at the top of recent articles on the internet, in newspapers, magazines, etc.

But they’re not even close to being the first to predict Dow 30,000.

Check this out…

In May 2018, Gene Simmons, the lead singer of KISS, was interviewed by Barron’s. In the interview he said, “there is no question in my mind we are going to go past 30,000.” He didn’t give a date, during that interview. But in another interview with a well-known bald guy you see regularly on financial TV  he said “probably within two years.”

Kudos … maybe an old rocker is a better judge of the markets than the so-called experts and financial analysts who’ve been predicting Dow 30,000 for far longer.

Like this guy…

In 2008, Robert Zuccaro authored a book titled “Dow 30,000 by 2008: Why It’s Different This Time.” Zuccaro is a chartered financial analyst who used to run a mutual fund called the Grand Prix Fund. It folded eventually. I think you can still buy used copies of this book if you want to understand the guy’s thinking.

But it goes even further — which is how this post came about.

Here’s how it happened…

TimRAW and Dow 30,000

BIG day trading risk is not using the right tools. Tim Sykes at Nasdaq closing bell StocksToTrade
© 2020 Millionaire Media, LLC

In late 2008, I recorded my DVD guide called “TimRAW.” In the first DVD, I did a book review.

You might know that when I first got started I read every book in my dad’s vast financial library. So I wanted to review some of the books and give recommendations for students.

Quick aside here … you have to read a whole bunch of stuff if you want a solid background. Many people don’t want that broad of an education. I think that the more you study and the better you prepare, the better your chances of success. Preparation is key.

Also, if you have a broad background you might find a different strategy is better for you. While I want to be the mentor to you that I never had, I really only teach pennystocking. So if you find a different niche or strategy is better for you, that’s ok. (New to penny stocks?  Start here with my FREE penny stock guide.)

Back to how I called Dow 30,000 in 2020…

So, when I got to the book “The Next Great Bubble Boom” by Harry Dent, I kinda joked about it. He predicted the Dow could get to 40,000 by 2010. I said maybe we’d get Dow 30,000 by 2020.

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Here’s my Dow 30,000 call…

 

How’s that for a call? But I hope you understand the important lesson there … You can learn a lot from people who are wrong.

Mark this date on your calendar, because you are witnessing a historic milestone.

November 24, 2020: The Dow Hits the 30,000 Milestone

After its 38% drop in February and March, it looked unlikely that my ‘prediction’ would come true. But it did. I’ll take it as long as you get the most important lesson of this post…

Don’t play guessing games. Don’t try to predict the market. Learn my strategies and rules, and then react to what the market gives. (I trade using these rules.)

That’s EXACTLY what all my top students are doing…

Trading Challenge

2020 has been crazy. It’s my best year ever. So far I’ve made $969,870 in trading profits*, all of which I donate to charity. And while I’m excited to make more to donate, I’m more proud of my students.

Jack Kellogg is my latest millionaire student.* Roland Wolf also passed the $1 million milestone in 2020.* Matthew Monaco has made over $418,000.* Kyle Williams is over $561,000 in trading profits — $435,400 in 2020 alone.*

(*Please note: These results are far from typical. Individual results will vary. Most traders lose money. My top students and I have the benefit of years of hard work, dedication, and experience. Trading is inherently risky. Do your due diligence and never risk more than you can afford to lose.)

What do these traders have in common? All my top students are in the Trading Challenge. Every single one.

The Trading Challenge is my most comprehensive program. Everything I’ve learned over two decades of trading and 12 years of teaching is there for you. But you have to want it. Dedication and study are the keys to freedom.

Why You Should Apply for the Trading Challenge Today

Here’s what you get as a Trading Challenge student…

  • Thousands of video lessons. These video lessons are like a running documentary on trading strategies working at any given time. Thanks to millionaire student Mark Croock, they’re all categorized. That way you can focus on one strategy at a time.
  • Hundreds of archived webinars. Want to learn how to trade like the OG Tim Grittani? Watch his more than 60 webinars in the archives. Nuggets of gold.
  • Live webinars. Every week, Trading Challenge students get two to four live webinars.  Every webinar features Q&A. Some show live trading. Others are trade reviews showing the best trades from each of the Challenge mentors.
  • Trading Challenge chat. My favorite chat room anywhere. During market hours, you’ll see trade alerts by all the top traders in the Challenge. When you study their trades in real time (NEVER trade based on an alert) you start to understand their thought process.
  • Hundreds of hours of DVD guides. This is the foundation for your trading education. From learning to read SEC filings, to understanding level 2, all the basics are here. (HINT: Watch TimRAW disc 1 at the 1:49:35 mark to see my Dow 30,000 2020 prediction. Woo hoo!)
  • Daily watchlists. Learn how I make my watchlist and my thought process for potential trades.
  • Trade Alerts. Again, NEVER follow me, or anyone else, into a trade. That said, if you watch my alerts and pick apart my trades, it can potentially speed up your learning curve.
  • Access to the 30-Day Bootcamp. This is my most recent guide. It’s getting such rave reviews that we’ve made it part of the Trading Challenge orientation. BOOM.

You ready?

Apply for the Trading Challenge here

What do you think of the Dow 30,000 milestone and my crazy ‘prediction’ in 2008? Comment below … I love to hear from all my readers!

 


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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity. Read More

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (205) 851-0506 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”