Table of Contents
- 1 Adventures in Food: European Edition
- 2 Trading Lesson of the Week
- 3 Learn the Lesson the Market Is Teaching
- 4 Big Shout Out to Students and Baby Traders
- 5 Question of the Week
- 6 Millionaire Mentor Market Wrap
Adventures in Food: European Edition
Last week I flew from South Africa to Copenhagen for another foodie week with The Hungry Tourist. It’s called the Best of Nordic Food Tour. Otherwise known as the Grand Viking Food Trail. It included restaurant excursions in Sweden, Denmark, and the Faroe Islands. We did food tastings at five of the best restaurants in the world.
We went to Frantzén in Stockholm and Fäviken in north-central Sweden. These are restaurants I’ve been wanting to go to for a while. Both have multiple years of wait lists. Fäviken is pretty crazy; we had to take two flights to get there.
After Stockholm, we went back to Copenhagen and ate at Alchemist, which is one of the most hotly anticipated restaurant openings of the year. It opens in a few weeks and we were able to get a sneak peek thanks to The Hungry Tourist.
Then we ate at Noma, where they divide the year into three seasons and change the menu with the season. It’s currently seafood season at Noma — a celebration of Scandinavian seafood.
We finished the tour with a visit to the Faroe Islands, where we ate at Koks, a Michelin-starred restaurant. Whenever possible they serve locally sourced produce, which is pretty amazing when you consider the restaurant’s location. They serve both ancient and modern dishes, and they care about sustainability. Pretty cool.
Visiting five of the world’s top restaurants in one week: beyond awesome. Now I’ve got some weight to lose. Totally worth it.
Trading Lesson of the Week
As always, I’ve been trading. I got a question from someone in the Trading Challenge about how little I’ve been trading…
“Tim, you haven’t taken as many trades this week. Is it because of your schedule?”
No. I’m on a good time zone — the U.S. markets open in the afternoon here in Europe. I’m always willing to trade.
The morning dip buys that I usually like right near the market open have been happening later. Say, 10 a.m., 11 a.m., or even 12 p.m. Eastern. I’ve had a little difficulty adjusting. You know, that happens sometimes with some patterns.
I’ve been a little off on my dip buys the past couple of weeks. In last week’s update I gave you some examples in my trade with CBD Unlimited Inc (OTCPK: EDXC) — a 100% bouncer off the lows on April 23 and I made a lousy $25. Too early.
Also on April 23, Medicine Man Technologies Inc (OTCQX: MDCL), I was too early. On April 25 it was Body & Mind Inc (OTCPK: BMMJ) … too early. And then on May 3, it happened again. I could have made some good money on the dip buy and I was too early, this time on Precipio Inc (NASDAQ: PRPO).
PRPO chart: morning dip buy; later than usual
I tried to dip buy this recent runner as it was dropping hard. I waited longer than usual as I was attempting to adapt to the market. It was also approaching multi-day support. I added to my position on a further dip — realizing I was too early on the first very small position.
I felt lucky to get out of it with a small gain. I was on the right track and made a little money — but missed out on the bounce that happened around noon. You have to adapt. So I’m trying to get better. Which brings me to this…
Learn the Lesson the Market Is Teaching
From each of the trades above, I received a lesson…
I recognized that I was on the right track — all four of them bounced. But in each case, I was too early. Even though I was still too early on PRPO, I bought it later than usual at 11:11 a.m. Eastern. The ultimate dip wasn’t until around noon. So while I was around 50 minutes early, I was adapting to the shift.
Another pattern I’ve had to adapt recently is the first green day. I love to hold first green day, OTC runners, with a strong news catalyst overnight. I think I’ve adapted well by learning to sell late market on the first green day. Not holding overnight but selling half or more into strength at the end of the day.
You have to learn to overcome your expectations. On KBLB (which I talked about a couple weeks back when asked about the veracity of press releases), I stuck to what I saw. I very quickly got rid of my expectations. When price action isn’t there you have to snap out of it — and fast. You adapt. You adapt or you lose big.
Next week the market might teach me a new lesson. I’ll keep adapting.
That’s all you can do, you know? If you’re too early, you keep trying. You shift your trade a little later. Let the fakeout dip play out — so you catch the real one. If you’re too aggressive, take smaller positions. Be less aggressive. Every trade you should be adapting to the market.
Big Shout Out to Students and Baby Traders
I want to give a shout out to a couple of Trading Challenge students…
Ramesh reported some success shorting PRPO on May 4. If I’m not mistaken, it’s Ramesh’s biggest reported win since becoming a student. Congratulations, Ramesh! Well done, my man.
Also, Atiqe, who I mentioned in a recent post about my Rolls-Royce also reported making some impressive moves. Congratulations, Atiqe! Awesome!
Welcome, Next-Generation Traders
I won’t mention names here because privacy is a big deal to me and there are, frankly, some psychos on the internet…
I want to send huge congratulations for a few babies born into the Trading Challenge community. A few of my top students have had babies in the past few weeks. May your children be blessed with health and lead peaceful and prosperous lives.
Pretty cool stuff. I look forward to the next generation of traders.
Question of the Week
This one is another Trading Challenge student question. It’s related to the late morning dip buys I mentioned earlier in this post.
“Tim, will you please comment on some of the late-morning dips with strong bounce over the last week? (e.g. $EVLV $PRPO $BMMJ $EDXC). Are these just a variation of the morning panic dip buy?”
[That way of writing the ticker symbol — a dollar sign followed by the ticker — is common on Twitter and in trading chat rooms, including . So if you see it on my Twitter feed you know what’s going on. Most of you reading this already know, so this is for newbies.]
They’re still morning dip buys. The pattern still works to a T. It’s just later in the timing than I’m used to. Like I said before, you have to adapt.
FOR EXAMPLE: In the past, maybe the pattern didn’t work past, say, 11:30 a.m. Eastern. Or it wasn’t as common. Maybe as soon as the volume started to drop the pattern wouldn’t work. For whatever reason, now in the market, the pattern seems to be working a little later. That doesn’t mean it will stay later.
Trying to figure out the reason…
…it might be because there are more people trying to dip buy and they get faked out earlier. So the ultimate crashes aren’t happening until the early people are getting faked out.
I’m speculating, but it could be similar to what we’re seeing with short squeezes with newbie short sellers. They’re shorting too early so we’re seeing bigger short squeezes. I think something like that is happening with the morning dips. That’s part of the reason.
The Solution to Trading’s Moving Target Lies in Your Ability to Adapt
When you try a pattern and it doesn’t work, you keep testing. You take smaller positions. If it’s working later in the day, you try to trade later in the day. If it’s working earlier in the day, you trade earlier.
It’s important to remember this is NOT an exact science. You have to adapt. You have to respect this is a moving target.
The good news…
Even though I’m testing, and even though I’ve been too early, I’m not losing much. I’ve cut losses or made small gains quickly. You can potentially still break even — if not make small losses or take small gains — even while testing.
…you obey rule #1: cut losses quickly.
So I’ve recognized this slight shift in the pattern. Some of my students have recognized it. And it’s good to talk about it.
Millionaire Mentor Market Wrap
Another week in the books. I hope you spend the week studying. If you can carve out a couple of hours a day — over time — you’ll be surprised how much you can learn about trading. Go get it. Life’s too short. This is NOT a dress rehearsal.