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Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps As Earnings Beat Fuels 2027 Bull Case

ELLIS HOBBS•UPDATED OCT. 23, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
Reviewed by Jack Kelloggand Fact-checked by Tim Sykes

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stocks have been trading up by 7.32 percent following upbeat sentiment on stronger steel demand and profitability

Key Takeaways

  • Q3 2026 marked the strongest quarter in three years, with adjusted EBITDA of $612M beating the prior $575M guide and revenue reaching $5.6B as CLF swung from a Q2 net loss to profit.
  • Management guided Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA to about $715M and projected 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4B, anchored by contract changes and current steel price expectations.
  • The company posted Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.28 versus a loss a year ago; revenue of $5.61B rose year over year, and the stock jumped more than 15% on the print.
  • Wells Fargo lifted its Cleveland-Cliffs price target to $17 from $14 with an Overweight rating, citing stronger steel pricing, solid earnings visibility into 2027, and ongoing debt reduction.
  • B. Riley raised its CLF target to $18 from $15 and reiterated a Buy rating, highlighting a stronger 2027 outlook and higher hot-rolled coil price assumptions, while flagging capex, cycle, and labor risks.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update At 12:32:49 EDT: On Friday, October 23, 2026 Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stock [NYSE: CLF] is trending up by 7.32%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Financial Overview

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. just reminded the market why traders still crowd into steel names when the cycle turns. CLF’s latest quarter showed total revenue around $5.61B and EBITDA near $620M, which lines up with the reported $612M adjusted EBITDA headline. That’s a sharp move from recent softness and confirms that pricing and volumes are finally doing the heavy lifting.

On the bottom line, CLF generated net income of about $152M with diluted EPS of $0.26–$0.28, versus losses a year ago. For active traders, that shift from red to black matters more than any single margin number. Cash flow backs it up: operating cash flow of $224M and free cash flow of $72M show CLF is not just booking accounting profits; it is actually generating cash after capex.

More Breaking News

The balance sheet still carries weight. Long-term debt of roughly $7.6B and total liabilities of about $14.4B keep leverage elevated, and interest coverage around 0.8 times tells you the company is not out of the woods on financing risk. But a current ratio near 1.9 and clear guidance to push leverage below 2.5x net debt/EBITDA by mid‑2027 give CLF a path to a cleaner story. For now, the chart and the earnings trend say momentum is shifting in CLF’s favor.

Why Traders Are Watching CLF Right Now

The recent tape in CLF is what momentum traders look for. After Q3 numbers hit, CLF shares ripped double digits — one move saw an 11% push to $13.52, another print showed a 16.7% jump to $14.14. Those are not quiet, slow‑grind value moves. That’s sentiment flipping from doubt to belief in a single earnings window.

Fundamentally, CLF delivered its strongest quarter in three years with Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $612M versus prior guidance of $575M, powered by higher prices, better volumes, and cost work. The kicker for traders is not just the beat; it’s the forward path. Management sees Q4 2026 EBITDA around $715M despite normal seasonal and maintenance headwinds. Then they push the story out further, talking about more than $4B in adjusted EBITDA for 2027 if today’s pricing and contract changes hold.

That kind of multi‑year guide is what brings in bigger money and fuels trend trades. You can see it in the analyst reaction. Wells Fargo took its CLF target to $17 and called out stronger steel pricing and visibility through at least early 2027. B. Riley bumped its CLF target to $18, tying the upside to higher hot‑rolled coil assumptions and the potential for aggressive debt reduction.

There are still execution questions. CLF is integrating the Stelco acquisition, idling uneconomic galvanizing lines while trying to maintain tonnage and jobs amid Canadian regulatory noise. Elevated capex, a possible peak in steel pricing, and ongoing union negotiations all hang over the story. But when a stock like CLF moves from loss to profit, raises guidance, and rips 10–15% on volume, short‑term traders pay attention first and debate macro later.

Conclusion

For active traders, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is no longer a sleepy steel ticker. CLF’s price action has shifted from choppy base‑building around $11–$12 to a clean breakout toward $14, backed by real numbers. The daily chart shows CLF grinding higher for weeks, then accelerating as earnings confirmed what the tape was hinting at. Intraday, the 5‑minute candles around $13.20–$14.05 show steady higher lows rather than wild reversals — a sign of controlled accumulation rather than a one‑and‑done squeeze.

At the same time, CLF’s fundamentals are finally lining up with that chart. A swing to positive EPS, rising EBITDA guidance into Q4 2026, and a stated goal of driving leverage below 2.5x by mid‑2027 all give traders a concrete narrative to trade around. The risks — heavy debt, steel‑cycle peaks, Stelco integration, and labor talks — keep this far from a “set it and forget it” story, which is exactly why short‑term trading opportunities show up.

The key now is discipline. CLF has momentum, but momentum cuts both ways. As Tim Sykes likes to remind traders, “The market doesn’t owe you anything — protect your downside first, then worry about upside later.” As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes, says, “It’s better to go home at zero than to go home in the red.”. For anyone tracking CLF, that means respecting support and resistance, reacting to new data fast, and never falling in love with the bull case, no matter how strong the last quarter looked. This analysis is for educational and research purposes only and is not investment advice.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

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The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”