timothy sykes logo

Stock News

Is Rivian Automotive Stock a Bargain or Bust After Recent Downgrades?

Timothy SykesAvatar
Written by Timothy Sykes
Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs

Rivian Automotive Inc.’s market movement is being heavily influenced by key news events. Ongoing supply chain issues and a significant production cut have raised concerns, while recent recalls have added additional pressure on the stock. Consequently, on Tuesday, Rivian Automotive Inc.’s stock has been trading down by -5.88 percent.

  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Rivian Automotive to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $13, down from $16.
  • Supplier issues are affecting motor production, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe mentioned at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference.
  • Shares of Rivian, Magna International, and Phinia dropped following Morgan Stanley downgrades.
  • Consumer stocks fell, with RIVN shares tumbling due to Morgan Stanley’s downgrade, citing various factors not fully appreciated by investors.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update at 16:02:37 EST: On Tuesday, October 01, 2024 Rivian Automotive Inc. stock [NASDAQ: RIVN] is trending down by -5.88%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Overview of Rivian Automotive Inc.’s Financial Metrics and Recent Performance

In the wild landscape of the EV market, Rivian Automotive Inc. has been a notable player, ambitious and aggressive. Yet, recent data suggests bumpy terrain. Rivian’s stock has been churning, showing volatility that would make any seasoned trader question its stability. On Oct 1, 2024, it opened at $11.2 but ended the day at $10.44, a sharp dip. This wasn’t an isolated flutter, reflecting broader trends observed over days.

The Data Behind the Drop

Post image

Get my weekly watchlist, free

Sign up to jump start your trading education!

Rivian’s plunge stems from a storm of concerns. The company, downgraded by Morgan Stanley, not once but twice, saw its price target slashed to $13 from $16. The reasons? Quite a multitude—issues like vehicle affordability challenges, heightened credit losses, and the relentless march of competitors especially Tesla. This downgrade can’t be taken lightly. Imagine, each downgrade is a voice in the symphony of the market, a significant note altering the rhythm.

Take a glance at Rivian’s financial statements and key ratios, and the plot thickens. With revenues of $4.43B, Rivian isn’t chump change. But, profit margins tell another tale. The EBIT margin stands at a staggering -87.9%. Let that sink in for a moment. For every dollar they earn, the company is bleeding nearly nine-tenths. The profitability figures are dripping red ink—all the way with pretax and total profit margins rolling at -239.9% and -115.5% respectively. The story of loss echoes in each statistic.

Balance Sheet Balancing Act

Financial strength is crucial, particularly in an industry where capital expenditure is monumental. Rivian holds $5.76B in cash, providing some cushion, but with total debt to equity ratio at 0.86, the balance is precarious. They’re sailing in choppy waters, with debt looming large. Their leverage ratio is 2.3, indicating substantial reliance on borrowed funds.

Assets turnover ratio rests at a mere 0.3, suggesting inefficiency in generating sales from its total assets. Receivables turnover and invoice turnover are also not painting a rosy picture, underscoring operational struggles.

More Breaking News

Mixed Earnings and Investments

Rivian’s latest earnings report also contributes to the narrative. The company posted an operating revenue of $1.158B for Q2 of 2024 but reported a stark net loss of $1.457B for the same period. While depreciation and amortization came around $274M, the overall outlook remained grim due to heavy operating expenses amounting to $2.533B.

On the investment front, Rivian has been proactive but at hefty costs. Forcing innovation through extensive capital expenditure of $283M and net investments of -$206M shows their aggressive stance on developing premium electric vehicles. However, it’s soaking substantial cash flow, leaving them in a tighter liquidity position, evident by a free cash flow of -$1.037B.

Market Sentiments and Stock Movement

Downgrades and Market Perception

September 25, 2024, was a gloomy day for Rivian, reflecting redefined perceptions. Morgan Stanley’s downgrade radiated waves through not just Rivian but the entire consumer stock sector. It wasn’t just the downgrade; the rationale stung more. Overlooked international and domestic challenges, along with strategic hindrances, amplified the market’s skepticism regarding Rivian’s future trajectory. This had a direct impact on its stock price, triggering a 6.1% fall.

Underlying Supplier Struggles

The narrative deepens when CEO RJ Scaringe’s revelations come into play. At the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, he disclosed ongoing supplier issues affecting motor production. Picture a car trying to run on low fuel. Rivian depends heavily on streamlined supply chains for efficiency, but these hiccups indicate potential disruptions in their production pipeline. This news did not sit well with investors, further catalyzing the stock’s slide.

Insights from Rivian’s Stock Charts

A panoramic view of the stock charts from September highlights relentless volatility. On some days, Rivian shares attempted slight climbs, such as on Sep 27, 2024, where the stock reached a high of $11.84 before closing at $11.6. Yet, this seesaw movement reflects broader instability rather than sustained growth. The downward shifts in the charts mirror market unease stemming from the company’s operational and strategic conundrums.

In-Depth Scrutiny of the Recent News

Downgrades and Immediate Stock Reactions

The downgrade by Morgan Stanley permeated the market landscape, inducing immediate reactionary dips. Key phrases in the downgrade report spoke volumes—vehicle affordability issues, rising credit losses, inadequate computing progress. These are not minor brushstrokes but bold lines on Rivian’s canvas of challenges.

The mentioned price target cut to $13 is a significant market mover. It’s like sending a subtle but piercing signal to investors: tread cautiously. The reaction was swift—seeing a substantial dip in the stock price mirrors the market’s knee-jerk response to such compelling cues.

CEO’s Comments on Supply Chain Woes

RJ Scaringe’s comments about supplier issues weren’t merely words; they were signals. Think of a general admitting logistical failures mid-battle—confidence shakes. Rivian’s production pipeline disruptions mean delays in deliveries, impacting revenue cycles. This revelation was akin to pulling back the curtain, showing vulnerabilities that the market absorbed instantly, contributing to the downturn.

Broader Market Ripples

Rivian’s misfortunes weren’t isolated; they cascaded across the consumer stock segment. The assessment from Morgan Stanley wasn’t just a micro-level scrutiny but impacted stocks like Magna International and Phinia. Their joint tumble exhibited interconnected market sentiments, resonating across the sector. The broader sentiment was that if a player like Rivian bears such a load of challenges, competitors might not be far behind.

Financial Metrics Meltdown: Detailed Perspectives

Rivian’s financial data adds layers to this conundrum. With revenues of $4.43B, hopes for profitability appear distant. The EBIT margin of -87.9% translates every operational activity into significant losses. Diversification didn’t yield optimal returns, highlighting strategic missteps.

Their balance sheet, albeit showing substantial cash reserves ($5.76B), is shadowed by substantial debts ($5.877B in long-term debt). The total liabilities tower to $8.536B, painting a hefty burden on their financials.

Rivian’s investment into innovation and development is a double-edged sword—it demands enormous funds while promising potential returns. The free cash flow of -$1.037B implies urgent need for liquidity to maintain aggressive innovation without stretching thin.

Comparative Perspective: Rivian vs. Competitors

To grasp Rivian’s standing, one must compare it to its peers. Companies like Tesla present a competitive threat, with more streamlined operations and effective technological adoptions. Rivian’s struggles in computing advancements, as flagged by Morgan Stanley, situate it behind in the race against technologically superior competitors.

Tesla’s market strategies, agility, and sheer scale provide a contrasting backdrop, highlighting Rivian’s relative inefficacy. The computing prowess and strategic foresight shown by Tesla set a formidable bar that Rivian must leap over, and the current narrative suggests they’re stumbling rather than sprinting.

Speculative Outlook: Navigating Uncertainties

Predicting Rivian’s path involves an artful mixture of data interpretation and market sentiment decoding. The intersection of downgrades, CEO’s transparency about struggles, and financial vulnerabilities craft a narrative that’s rife with caution.

Short-term trajectories seem laden with risk. A sporadic rise may be possible, but without addressing core challenges, sustained growth appears elusive. Rivian’s future would require not just overcoming existing hurdles but anticipating industry paradigms to remain relevant.

Conclusion

So, where does Rivian Automotive Inc. stand after these revelations? The market response is telling—a combination of downgrades, internal revelations about supply issues, and staggering financial metrics paint a precarious picture. Rivian wades through financial turbulence, facing strategic decision points that will define its trajectory.

While the market trembled at the recent downgrades and operational concerns came to light, Rivian’s prospects remain a topic of heated debate. Can it overhaul its strategic approaches and survive this whirlwind? Or will it be another name shaking the volatile landscape of the EV market?

Investors and enthusiasts await. Some view it as a potential bargain prone to a robust rebound; others see a bust obscured by unrelenting challenges. As always in the investment world, it’s a delicate balance of foresight, analysis, and a bit of luck.

Curious about this stock and eager to learn more? Dive deeper into the world of trading with Timothy Sykes, renowned for his expertise in penny stocks. Explore his top picks and discover the strategies that have propelled him to success. Start your journey towards financial growth and trading mastery!

But wait, there’s more! Elevate your trading game with StocksToTrade, the ultimate platform for traders. With specialized tools for swing and day trading, StocksToTrade harnesses the power of Artificial Intelligence to guide you through the market’s twists and turns. Discover insights on Robinhood penny stocks and top biotech picks to fuel your trading journey:

Ready to embark on your financial adventure? Click the links and let the journey unfold.


How much has this post helped you?


Leave a reply

Author card Timothy Sykes picture

Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity. Read More

* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”