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Trading Recap

A Tale of 2 After-Hours Runners

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Written by Timothy Sykes Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 3/25/2026 6 min read
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This is a tale of 2 after-hours runners. Both spiked on earnings…

But only 1 kept going.

Which was the better stock to trade, and why?

The lesson is simple, but super important.

And it goes back to why my number one scan hasn’t changed…

Even after 25 years…

Why Big Percent Gainers Can Keep Going

The top % gainers scan is one of, if not the most watched scans traders use.

Some variation of the daily top percent gainers is built-in to every scanning platform.

And if you visit any financial website, a top-gainers widget is standard.

It makes sense, right?

Traders want to know what’s moving.

Everyone wants to know where the money is flowing in the markets.

That’s true whether you’re long-biased or short-biased.

So, why was one of these better than the other?

Start by taking a look at the after-hours charts below:

Spectral AI Inc. (NASDAQ: MDAI) spiked 16.5% in about 8 minutes after it reported earnings on March 24.

Source StocksToTrade MDAI 3/24/ after hours earnings, small percent gainer
Source StocksToTrade MDAI 3/24/ after hours earnings, small percent gainer

The initial spike was okay, but then MDAI faded (and it never recovered).

On the same day, Blaize Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BZAI) reported earnings. Notice the difference.

Source StocksToTrade BZAI 3/24/26 1-min candle, after hours earnings, big percent gainer
Source StocksToTrade BZAI 3/24/26 1-min candle, after hours earnings, big percent gainer

BZAI ran 46% in 14 minutes. Then, after a pullback and consolidation, it broke to new highs 40 minutes later.

So, you might wonder…

Did Earnings Make the Difference? 

The answer is a resounding maybe. I know that’s not what you want to hear (but it’s reality).

You could read every word of the earnings call transcripts and find reasons why they deserved to spike.

You could also find reasons why they shouldn’t spike.

All that shows is your bias.

So, when it comes to trading stocks like BZAI and MDAI, I NEVER second-guess the market.

Instead, I base my decisions on what the market is telling me.

And the market was very clear…

Source StocksToTrade, BZAI 3/24/26 after hours spike and consolidation
Source StocksToTrade, BZAI 3/24/26 after hours spike and consolidation

BZAI was where traders put their money.

But that still doesn’t explain why BZAI was so much better than MDAI.

More Breaking News

It all comes down to which stock has…

Short Squeeze Firepower

While longs look for big percent gainers and then watch for a pullback to enter, short sellers approach it from a different mindset.

Short sellers hunt down big percent gainers because they are bitter toxic lemons who want nothing more than to see every stock tank.

They’ll short a stock for any reason it doesn’t deserve to be up.

I know how short sellers think (I made millions short selling BEFORE it became so risky).

But they’re so desperate to be right that they get in too early.

So, big percent gainers are their top targets.

But right now there are SO many overaggressive short sellers that it’s crowded. And THAT leads to…

Short Squeeze Spikers 

This is exactly why stocks like BZAI can keep going. And why stocks like MDAI aren’t the best opportunity…

Source StocksToTrade MDAI 3/24/26 after-hours spike and fade
Source StocksToTrade MDAI 3/24/26 after-hours spike and fade

Again, short sellers aren’t wrong. Most of these spikers fail (most of the companies fail).

But short sellers get in too early because they want to top tick for their social media posts.

You’ve probably seen a few. I won’t call out any names but I WILL say..

Dear Short Sellers… Thank You for Your Sacrifice

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Shorts just keep selling, selling, selling, all the way to the top (trying to average up).

But who are they selling to?

  • Momentum buyers (who just want to scalp the squeeze)
  • Other short sellers who are panic buying to cover
  • And even longs who believe in the stock

Eventually the buying power runs out and the stock starts to fade (or consolidate).

That is, until enough short sellers get tired (or momentum buyers see a new opportunity.

And then…

It squeezes again.

The crazy thing is, this cycle can repeat over hours (or even days).

The Takeaway: Focus On Big Percent Gainers

If you start watching big percent gainers, you’ll begin to see this all play out.

You don’t even have to trade at first (just watch, or paper trade).

Once you see it happening, you can take advantage of big percent gainers.

Especially if you understand how short sellers think.

LONG may their greed continue…

To get full trade breakdowns and watch as I comment in real-time, apply for my Trading Challenge today. 

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Author card Timothy Sykes picture

Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”