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Trading Lessons

The Trump Catalyst

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 7/15/2024 5 min read
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Ladies and gentlemen,

It’s unavoidable, we have to talk about it:

The attempt on Trump’s life over the weekend and the tragic casualty among those attending Trump’s rally was nothing short of horrific.

The senseless violence in this world can be difficult to face at times. See my post on X below:

 

Now … We’ve seen instances of violence and war influence stocks before.

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting oil-price spikes.
  • The Hamas attack on Israel and resulting Israeli stock spikes.

The event from last weekend is similar.

It may seem cold, trying to profit off of price swings caused by conflict.

Friends, never lose that conscience! Your morals can inspire GREAT change in the world when paired with the right means.

The stock market is my means to inspire change.

Use this information as your means to inspire change!

The biggest profit opportunity in the stock market right now:

Trump Stocks

I woke up on Monday morning and already saw analysts trying to predict the hottest Trump stocks.

Take a look at my screenshot below:

Source: GoogleNews

We can’t predict which stocks will jump.

That’s a losing game. It’s impossible to predict what will happen in the stock market.

Instead, I react to volatility.

On Monday morning I saw that Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ: DJT) had already spiked 75% during premarket hours.

Pay attention …

Let’s say you “predicted” a spike on DJT last weekend. Had you bought shares like everyone else who “predicted” it … You’d be underwater intraday. Quite substantially.

Take a look at the chart of DJT below, every candle represents one trading minute.

DJT chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade

That’s why … I waited to REACT to the price action.

The markets’ most volatile stocks can follow a specific price framework. I just wait for the chart to match one of the patterns within my framework.

That’s what I did Monday morning. See my trade notes below:

Source: Profitly

My Framework For Profits

It’s the same framework over and over again!

One of the most frequent questions I’m asked:

“How long until these patterns become obsolete?”

The patterns never change because they’re based on human psychology. Human beings behave predictably when they’re under stress. Like when they’ve got a few thousand dollars in a stock that’s surging.

These patterns will exist in the market as long as human beings continue to trade.

This is the same framework that all of my millionaire students use to profit as well. See my post on X below:

It used to take months of studying to understand this trading framework. For example, one of my most successful students, Jack Kellogg, started in 2017 and didn’t start to profit until 2018.

But that was before the AI trading bot we developed in 2024 …

When AI burst on the scene in 2023, I immediately recognized its potential to help traders understand my process or profits. Remember, the patterns are the same every time.

After a few months of one-on-one with the AI, I managed to teach this process to an interactive bot!

Now my newest students can enter a ticker into the XGPT trading platform and it will spit out a trade plan as if they asked me directly.

>> Ask XGPT about your next trade <<

I anticipate more volatility from DJT as we approach the election.

As for other Trump stocks … Remember that I don’t predict runners.

With that said:

  • I’m watching for volatility in the security sector.
    • People are on edge right now, that sentiment could translate to defense stocks.

I don’t know the specific tickers, because they haven’t spiked yet. But thanks to my framework, the price action will be obvious.

Cheers.

 

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”