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The SpaceX IPO Is Like Launching Starship

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Written by Timothy Sykes Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 6/8/2026 7 min read
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This might sound weird because I’m not a space and computer nerd (like Tim Bohen).

And I’m not participating directly in the SpaceX IPO…

But I do love how this IPO is setting up.

And how SpaceX’s own Starship launch is an analogy for what we’re about to see.

To be fair, I had to look up the stages of a Starship launch (but that was fun).

Check it out…

Why the SpaceX IPO Is Like a Starship Launch

Source: SpaceX.com Starship launching
Source: SpaceX.com Starship launching

It takes a LOT of thrust to get Starship off the launch pad (roughly 18 million pounds-force)…

Liftoff and the IPO Roadshow Kickoff

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SpaceX’s IPO might even be the easier of the two…

Source: SpaceX Roadshow Presentation
Source: SpaceX Roadshow Presentation
  • Starship Launch: The Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor engines ignite creating massive thrust to get Starship off the launchpad.
  • SpaceX IPO: The company dropped this SEC filing in May (amended June 3), and launched the roadshow last week. Hype is building with oversubscription reports. And 21 of the most powerful financial institutions on the planet are working together to get SPCX off the pad.

Max-Q (Maximum Dynamic Pressure) and Peak Regulatory Stress

During launch, there’s a point of max pressure where structural integrity is proven (or not). Not so different from an IPO…

  • When Starship launches, it takes about 50-60 seconds for it to reach peak aerodynamic pressure.
  • The SpaceX IPO is similar. For the past couple of weeks there’s been both support and pushback for the expected valuation. For example, Morningstar values SpaceX at ~$780 billion versus the $1.77 trillion target. Who’s right? The market. Always. The market will decide. But there’s no doubt that pressure is building.

MECO (Main Engine Cut-Off) and Private-to-Public

SpaceX has been around for 24 years. It has revenue, but for years its only funding was private equity (that’s true of all big tech startups). Private equity is like Super Heave booster engines. Eventually they get cut off.

  • When Super Heavy’s main engines cut off, the heavy lifting is done. The rocket is at a high altitude and moving FAST (roughly 5,400 mph).
  • On pricing day (expected on June 11) there will be initial trades. Early private investors and some employees will get liquidity. When the IPO happens the next day, the private equity “main engine” gets cut off. It’s work is done.

Hot Staging, Post-IPO Volatility, and Nasdaq’s Fast Entry Rules

This is where both Starship and the SpaceX IPO are different from their competitors.

  • Hot staging is unique to Starship. The upper stage engines ignite while still attached to the Super Heavy booster. Supposedly it’s very efficient. It looks very risky.
  • For the SpaceX IPO, this will be the “hot” post-IPO period. Many of the best IPOs pop 19-20% on IPO day. We’ll see what happens with SpaceX.

But there’s one other thing about the SpaceX IPO that is brand new. Check out this headline from The Wall Street Journal…

Source: WSJ
Source: WSJ

Around 15 days after initial trading begins, Nasdaq’s new “fast entry” rules means SpaceX is likely to join the Nasdaq-100. Talk about hot staging. It’s like a mini-boost before the second stage burn.

Second Stage Burn and Life as a Public Company

This might be the most boring part of both the Starship launch and the SpaceX IPO. Most of the exciting parts are done unless there’s a “RUD” (see below).

  • When Starship’s second stage fires, it gets up to orbital height and speed.
  • For the SpaceX IPO, this stage will be the company going through the regular cycle of quarterly earnings, reports of Moon and Mars milestones, Starlink subscription numbers, and even big data center deals like this one with Google.

Orbital Insertion and “Escape Velocity”

  • Once it’s at the right altitude and speed, Starship will be orbital. So far, the tests have been high-altitude suborbital. Which means it hasn’t done this yet. Sort of like SPCX…
  • SpaceX still has to prove itself for the pre-IPO valuation to stick. That said, it does have multiple revenue streams and big ambitions. To da mooooon!

There’s ONE MORE way the SpaceX IPO could be like a Starship launch (and it would be wrong not to include it).

High Risk of Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly(RUD) 

Yep. Explosions. They’re always fun to watch, right?

  • Early Starship tests (and launches) have ended in spectacular fireballs. Remember this?

  • IPOs can “explode” too.  I’m not saying that will happen with SpaceX but there’s always a risk. One thing SpaceX has going for it… it tends to celebrate failure as a way forward. (Not so different from learning to trade, right?)

I hope that was as fun for you as it was for me learning about rockets.

Now, PAY ATTENTION because I’m going LIVE for an URGENT pre-IPO briefing…

The SpaceX IPO Supernova

On June 10th (48 hours before the IPO) I’m going live.

Why?

Because I’m convinced that the fastest, most explosive moves from the IPO frenzy WON’T come from buying the IPO.

I also think it could trigger the single greatest supernova window of my career.

Join me on June 10th at 8pm ET: for

SpaceX Supernova

Secure Your FREE Spot Now

Get My FREE Supernova Trade Idea 

Catalyst Watch:

Everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) this week so far revolves around two big catalysts.

  1. The end of the PDT rule last week. It’s still being implemented by some brokers.
  2. The SpaceX IPO and all the related plays in space, AI, data centers, telecommunications and whatever else Elon has going.

See you on Wednesday night.

Cheers,

 

– Tim Sykes

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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”