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Patterns To Watch

The Pitfalls of Shorting Supernovas

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 12/27/2023 4 min read

I love the fresh smell of Supernovas in the Spring.

How can you not love the market after last week…

Ticker symbol TOP moving 1,000% in a day…MEGL blasting off for a 350% move…and HUDI sky-rocketing by 330%…

But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.

Especially, if you are one of those traders who decided to short one of those symbols on Friday.

It makes absolutely no sense.

Why would you put yourself in a situation where you’re going to blow up?

But Tim, aren’t most of these stocks crap…and aren’t they destined to crash?

Sure…but that doesn’t mean you have enough capital to sustain the move upwards.

For example, TOP went from $6.53 to $250 in less than 24 hours.

If you saw it go from $7 to $40 you were probably licking your chops as a short-seller…

Surely, $60 would be the level to be short, right? Maybe $80, $120, or $150?

If you shorted at any of those prices you would have gotten destroyed.

And that’s the thing these short-sellers fail to tell you.

It doesn’t matter if you have an 80% winning percentage. All it takes is just one stock to get away from you to do permanent damage on your account.

Look…I take no price in seeing traders lose. And I don’t need a pat on the back for telling you I told you so.

Trading is not a game.

These Supernovas have become wilder and wilder over the last few years…and you simply don’t know when they’ll stop.

That’s why I always prefer to trade them on the long side.

Because all it takes is one bad short to blow up your account.

The problem with short-selling is that they’re fundamentally right.

It’s hard to cover a position when you know eventually that stock will sell-off. And that’s why managing your emotions is so difficult in trades like that.

But they fail to understand one important concept.

You see, very rarely does a stock have a justifiable reason to double, triple, or even quadruple in one trading session.

I mean it makes no sense.

However, if it doesn’t make sense…then why are you trying to use logic when shorting it?

If the fundamentals don’t matter…then why are they all of a sudden going to matter the moment you’re in the trade?

Don’t get me wrong…the fundamentals eventually do catch up…but it’s rarely instantly. It could take a few days or weeks before things normalize. Enough time to blow up a handful of shorts.

The truth is a lot of these moves are manufactured. 

Savvy traders are aware of the stock’s structure…they know how many shares are available to short…the total float…and what brokers are charging for locates.

The fact that the stock is a piece of crap is just more gasoline to the fire. They know stubborn shorts will jump in…causing an even greater short squeeze.

That’s why you really need to understand how Supernovas work.  

There’s a better way to trade these stocks than trying to short sell them.

It’s a lot safer…and potentially a lot more lucrative.

If you’d like to discover how I trade them then you’ll want to watch this. 

As for me, I’ve got all these Supernovas on my radar, and I’ll be watching them this week for potential dip buys.

Please stay safe out there.

P.S. As crazy as these Supernovas have been lately it’s almost nothing compared to what my student Adam Jarrett will be showing you on May 4th.

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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity. Read More

* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”