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Pagaya Technologies Surges Post-Optimistic Q3 Revenue Projection

Ellis HobbsAvatar
Written by Ellis Hobbs Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Tim Sykes
Updated 8/22/2025, 7:17 pm ET | 5 min
Pagaya Technologies Surges Post-Optimistic Q3 Revenue Projection Thumbnail

In this article Last trade Aug, 22 7:44 PM

  • PGY+13.87%
    PGY - NASDAQPagaya Technologies Ltd.
    $33.90+4.13 (+13.87%)
    Volume:  4.17M
    Float:  55.33M
    $29.11Day Low/High$34.29

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stocks have been trading up by 14.11 percent amid positive market sentiment and strategic developments.

Technology industry expert:

Analyst sentiment – positive

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is currently navigating a challenging market position, marked by a mixed set of financial fundamentals. Despite achieving a gross margin of 40%, the company shows significant profitability concerns with negative margins; EBIT margin at -26.5% and net profit margin at -27.17%. It faces heavy leverage with a total debt to equity ratio of 2.08, indicating a reliance on debt financing, which is costly considering a long-term debt payment of $114.44 million against its cash flows. Nevertheless, the liquidity ratios reflect short-term resilience with a current ratio of 1.4. Despite these challenges, Pagaya’s enterprise value of $1.17 billion and price-to-sales ratio of 2.15 suggest that the market remains cautiously optimistic about its longer-term potential.

Technically, Pagaya’s recent weekly price patterns reveal a bearish sentiment, with the stock price starting at $33.97 and closing lower at $33.78 after experiencing a dip to $29.7 earlier in the week. This pattern suggests increased selling pressure and potential market apprehension. The dominant trend remains bearish, with prices failing to reclaim the immediate resistance level of $34. The below-openings and low weekly closing necessitate a cautious approach. For trading, short positions could be considered around the $33-$34 resistance level with a clear stop-loss at $34.3. Monitoring volume patterns alongside price action will be critical, particularly on any retracement to the $30-$31 support zone which could indicate potential buying interest.

Catalysts for Pagaya point towards a positive outlook with recent news boosting upward sentiment. The closure of a $500 million ABS deal, rated AAA, highlights strong investor confidence and financial structuring acumen which could help mitigate profitability challenges. Additionally, successful issuance of senior unsecured notes suggests robust market confidence, while projections for Q3 revenue to surpass $330M demonstrate stable performance. Analysts have raised price targets, reflecting optimism towards Pagaya’s growth trajectory and strategic refinements. Despite underperformance in Q2 earnings, the improved full-year guidance and growing institutional demand paint a bullish picture moving forward. The company’s recent re-alignment efforts justify a resistance target of $35, as underscored by multiple equity analysts, suggesting further growth potential if positive trends sustain.

Candlestick Chart

Weekly Update Aug 18 – Aug 22, 2025: On Friday, August 22, 2025 Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock [NASDAQ: PGY] is trending up by 14.11%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Financial Overview

Pagaya Technologies has demonstrated commendable financial performance in recent quarters. The company’s earnings report accentuated a strong financial footing, with Q2 revenue reaching $326.4M, surpassing estimations. This increased revenue stems from the diversified expansion in financial products and the robust infrastructure supporting AI-driven assets.

This success has enabled Pagaya to make precise fiscal forecasts, projecting Q3 revenue to attain $330M-$350M, exceeding previous consensuses. Additionally, full-year 2025 guidance was raised, now aiming for $1.25B-$1.33B. A noteworthy rise in net income attributed to shareholders and adjusted EBITDA further underscores the company’s healthy financial status. Meanwhile, their tactical approach to lowering their cost of debt through refinancing indicates judicious financial management, whereby annual savings of approximately $40M are anticipated. Such a steadfast strategy invariably promotes operational efficiency.

Key financial ratios reflect a deep understanding of their financial landscape. The enterprise value stands at $1.17B, and despite negative margins in profitability, the improved cash flow from operations and solid liquidity ratios signal sustainable long-term potential.

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Conclusion

The financial strategy adopted by Pagaya Technologies seems to be bearing fruit, evident from their robust financial reports and optimistic future guidance. Continuous improvements in revenue and strategic refinancing are significantly boosting the company’s financial health and trader confidence. Analysts’ increased price targets underscore the sentiment that the company remains undervalued and poised for growth. As Pagaya continues executing its strategic plans, including enhancing its AI capabilities and expanding its asset-backed securitization footprint, the future appears bright. However, as millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes says, “There is always another play around the corner; don’t chase just because you feel FOMO.” Traders can anticipate continued growth in network volume and an evolving revenue stream, maintaining optimism for sustainable financial performance well into 2025 and beyond.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

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Ellis Hobbs

Trainer and Mentor on Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge
He teaches webinars on Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge He treats trading like a business, not a hobby He emphasizes taking small risks — “If you get the process right, money is a forgone conclusion.”
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In this article (YTD Performance)

  • PGY+263.4%
    PGY - NASDAQPagaya Technologies Ltd.
    $33.90+4.13 (+13.87%)
    Volume:  4.17M
    Float:  55.33M
    $29.11Day Low/High$34.29

* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”

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