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GEO Group Stock Plummets Amid Revenue Forecast Concerns

Jack KelloggAvatar
Written by Jack Kellogg Reviewed by Tim Sykes Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 2/22/2026, 11:14 am ET 2/22/2026, 11:14 am ET | 4 min 4 min read
GEO Group Stock Plummets Amid Revenue Forecast Concerns Thumbnail

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT stocks have been trading down by -13.19 percent amid rising market uncertainty and policy shifts.

Industrials industry expert:

Analyst sentiment – negative

GEO currently holds a moderate position in the market with a profitability profile indicating an EBIT margin of 19%, and a pretax profit margin of 7.5%, suggesting relatively efficient operations within its sector. Its total revenue for the year stands at $2.42 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.66, which appears undervalued compared to the average PE range over the last five years. However, the company’s total debt to equity ratio at 1.07 and current ratio at 1.6 signal a balanced but leveraged capital structure. A spotlight on its financial strength reveals a gearing that may pose challenges given its long-term debt payment obligations coupled with a relatively low free cash flow.

The weekly price action exhibits volatility with opening prices fluctuating between $13.26 and $14.58. The recent sharp decline from $15.32 to $13.3 over a few sessions evidences a bearish momentum. The immediate focus should be on the $13.0 support level, under which further selling pressure could be triggered. The dominant trend is downward, and with the five-minute candle detailing intra-day resistance forming, a strategy for traders might involve shorting GEO on the breach of $13.0 with stop-loss set tightly above recent highs at $14.99. Monitoring volume spikes will provide additional confirmation of trend strength.

Recent announcements signal a cautious outlook. GEO’s EPS forecast for 2026 is depressed compared to analyst expectations, leading to a significant share price retracement of -17.9%. The discrepancy between projected revenues and consensus figures may result in continued downward pressure on GEO’s market valuation. Relative to its industry peers, GEO underperforms, an indication reflected in projected capex and operating expenses potentially weighing on future profitability. With key resistance at $14.00 and immediate technical support at $13.00 recently tested, the company’s trajectory warrants a guarded stance. Based on current patterns and market feedback, the overall sentiment for GEO is negative.

Candlestick Chart

Weekly Update Feb 16 – Feb 20, 2026: On Sunday, February 22, 2026 Geo Group Inc (The) REIT stock [NYSE: GEO] is trending down by -13.19%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Financial Overview

The GEO Group’s recent financial forecasts have sparked significant concerns in the market, leading to a notable decline in stock value. On February 20, 2026, GEO’s share price closed at $13.30, reflecting a sharp downturn when compared to prior trading days. In recent intraday trading, prices dipped dramatically, reaching lows not seen in previous sessions. The discrepancy between anticipated earnings and analyst expectations has fueled investor unease, adding pressure on GEO to recalibrate its financial strategy.

Examining key financial ratios reveals areas of strength and weakness. The EBIT margin stands at 19%, complemented by a healthy gross margin of 100%, indicating strong underlying profitability. However, a closer inspection of the company’s liabilities, with a total debt to equity ratio of 1.07, underscores considerable financial leverage. Despite a robust gross profit of over $682M in Q3 2025, the fall from previous profitability levels, coupled with increased capital expenditures, raises questions about future cash flows. Including cash flows, the company’s Free Cash Flow showed a substantial negative shift to -$14.1M, signaling potential liquidity issues.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

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Jack Kellogg

He teaches webinars on Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge He became Tim’s youngest millionaire student in 2020. Now he’s second on the Trading Challenge leaderboard with $12.9 million in career earnings. He’s a master of the 7-Step Pennystocking Framework. Jack is one of a rare breed of traders to profitably trade the entire penny stock framework.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”