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Genius Sports Boosts Forecast on Strong Revenue Growth

Jack KelloggAvatar
Written by Jack Kellogg Reviewed by Ellis Hobbs Fact-checked by Matt Monaco
Updated 11/23/2025, 11:17 am ET 11/23/2025, 11:17 am ET | 5 min 5 min read
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Genius Sports Limited stocks have been trading up by 8.9 percent following the announcement of a significant NFL media partnership.

Media industry expert:

Analyst sentiment – positive

Genius Sports (GENI) exhibits a stark discrepancy in its financial health, marked by a negative pre-tax profit margin of -90% and substantial losses impacting return metrics such as a return on assets of -22.26% and return on equity of -35.2%. Although revenue stands at $510.9 million, the company faces significant profitability challenges reflected in its high price-to-sales ratio of 4.27. GENI operates with a capitalization heavily influenced by goodwill and intangible assets, pointing to a risk-laden balance sheet despite holding current assets of $288.6 million against liabilities of $201.6 million. Overall, GENI’s market position is strained by unprofitable operations, suggesting a need for strategic realignment.

Recent price action illustrates Genius Sports’ short-lived recovery phases amidst a broader downward trend. Notable uneven price fluctuations from November 17 to 21 saw a determined low at $8.742 on November 19 and a recovery to close at $9.4739 on November 21. The dominant trend appears bearish, reinforced by declining weekly closings and volatile intra-day trading patterns. Advisable trading strategy: Consider maintaining short positions or tracking these declining momentum trends until a definitive upward breakout or significant volume surge suggests a reversal. Key resistance levels lie near $9.60, while support hovers around $8.70.

Catalysts for GENI include strong year-over-year revenue growth of 38%, driven by its media and betting sectors, and an uplifting of FY25 forecasts. Recent coverage by Wells Fargo indicating an Equal Weight rating with a $10 target adds further conviction to an improved sentiment outlook. Despite a decline in EPS, the company exceeded Q3 revenue expectations, outstripping analyst forecasts. Comparatively, Genius Sports’ performance against broader media sector benchmarks reveals aggressive market maneuvering aimed at leveraging data integration and audience intelligence. In summary, heightened revenue expectations and strategic positioning in data-influenced media warrant cautious optimism for GENI. Key resistance stands at $10, while renewed optimism sees a price target of $14.76 supported by analyst consensus.

Candlestick Chart

Weekly Update Nov 17 – Nov 21, 2025: On Sunday, November 23, 2025 Genius Sports Limited stock [NYSE: GENI] is trending up by 8.9%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quick Financial Overview

Genius Sports Limited demonstrated notable financial robustness with a Q3 revenue of $166.3 million, outstripping forecasted figures and reflecting a significant surge from $120.2 million in the prior year. This robust growth indicates strategic advancements in their media and betting divisions, bolstering investor confidence. The company’s elevated revenue guidance for FY25 to $655M, alongside a higher adjusted EBITDA forecast at $136M, signals a strong trajectory in financial health.

Examining recent price movements, the stock opened at $9.47 and experienced fluctuation before settling at $9.46, with the next days witnessing a notable dip to $8.742. This volatileness, however, aligns with the intensified operational activities and strategic calibrations evident in the fiscal projections and reported successes. Moreover, the company’s current valuation metrics exhibit a price-to-sales ratio of 4.27 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.81, reinforcing market perception stability amidst evolving fiscal dynamics.

GENI’s recalibrated fiscal strategies are reflected in their financial statements where they confront a pretax profit margin resting at a challenging -90%. Yet, with an elevated ROE pushing towards -35.2%, the endeavor to recalibrate and harness efficiencies is transparent through strategic revenue growth and asset optimization maneuvers.

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Jack Kellogg

He teaches webinars on Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge He became Tim’s youngest millionaire student in 2020. Now he’s second on the Trading Challenge leaderboard with $12.9 million in career earnings. He’s a master of the 7-Step Pennystocking Framework. Jack is one of a rare breed of traders to profitably trade the entire penny stock framework.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

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Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”