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BigBear.ai’s Significant Stock Decline: An In-Depth Look

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Written by Jack Kellogg Reviewed by Ellis Hobbs Fact-checked by Matt Monaco
Updated 3/18/2025, 11:38 am ET 6 min read
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BigBear.ai Inc.’s shares plummet following concerning news about the company’s operational challenges and potential difficulties securing financing within the competitive tech sector. On Tuesday, BigBear.ai Inc.’s stocks have been trading down by -11.61 percent.

What’s Happening?

  • Revenue forecasts for BigBear.ai have been revised down, with estimates for FY25 projected between $160M and $180M, below the consensus of $193.9M.
  • The new CEO at BigBear.ai plans for long-term growth, amid a slight miss on Q4 revenue and EBITDA, leading to a downgrade by Northland Securities.
  • Recent trading saw a significant drop of 23% in BigBear.ai shares, with prices falling to $3.23, following underwhelming financial performance reports.
  • Q4 showed net losses widening to $0.43 per share against the prior year’s $0.14, causing market uncertainties about meeting future financial targets.
  • Revenue for the last quarter missed yet again, reaching $43.8M, a visible gap compared to analysts’ forecast of $54.6M, affecting investor sentiment.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update At 11:37:47 EST: On Tuesday, March 18, 2025 BigBear.ai Inc. stock [NYSE: BBAI] is trending down by -11.61%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Analyzing BigBear.ai’s Recent Earnings and Metrics

In the world of trading, it’s crucial to develop a strong strategy and stay disciplined in its execution. This can be challenging, as emotions often come into play, leading traders to make impulsive decisions that may not align with their predefined plan. As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes says, “Consistency is key in trading; don’t let emotions dictate your trades.” Understanding this principle helps traders to maintain focus and control, ensuring that each trading decision supports long-term goals rather than short-term emotional reactions.

BigBear.ai has been on a tumultuous ride lately, with its recent financial performance painting a complex picture. Their latest earnings report reveals some critical insights into the company’s challenges and opportunities. Despite an increase in revenue to $43.8M compared to $40.6M from the previous year, this still fell significantly short of market analysts’ expectations pegged at $54.6M. This shortfall has strained investor confidence, evidenced by the stark decline in stock price, reaching lows of $3.23.

The company’s financial strength, as indicated by key ratios, paints a tippled portrayal. Profitability margins indicate a company struggling with negative numbers in crucial areas such as Net Income and EBIT margins. With a current ratio of 2.1, BigBear.ai shows sufficient ability to cover its immediate liabilities, although the debt-to-equity ratio of 2.09 hints at substantial leverage. Their market value, represented by a price-to-sales ratio of 5.64 and a price-to-tangible-book ratio of -6.27, highlights the valuation challenges the company faces amidst its financial woes.

More Breaking News

BigBear.ai faces substantial hurdles, which include strengthening its balance sheet while navigating unpredictable government spending patterns crucial to its revenue stream. With a downturn in the market, it remains to be seen how the company plans to refocus its strategy to reignite investor interest.

Navigating the Tumultuous Market from BigBear.ai’s Perspective

Investors are rightly concerned about the bearish sentiment surrounding BigBear.ai. The recent downgrade from Northland, shifting BigBear.ai from Outperform to Market Perform has sent ripples throughout the market. The downgrade reflects anticipated delays in growth strategies as the newly appointed CEO takes the helm. This change comes with its share of uncertainties as the company aims to implement new plans and hopefully stabilize financial performance.

The market was further jolted by BigBear.ai’s projection of FY25 revenue, which fell short of the initial expectations set by analysts. The ongoing negative sentiment is reflected across trading platforms, where BigBear.ai’s stock has seen significant volatility. For instance, beginning Mar 18, 2025, the stock opened at $3.09 and faced pressure, evident from the progressively lower daily closing prices observed through March.

The disparity between expected revenue figures and actual earnings has shaped perceptions around the company’s long-term potential. Analysts believe BigBear.ai must address these shortfalls swiftly while developing robust responses to competitive pressures in their market sector.

Comprehensive News Review: How It Influences BigBear.ai’s Market Movement

Significant news pieces about BigBear.ai have starkly impacted its stock trajectory. The lower-than-expected financial figures have diluted optimism. One of the most striking observations is the revelation of the company’s Q4 widened losses, standing at a stark $0.43 per share. This scenario, compared to last year’s $0.14 per share, has heightened trader wariness. The impending challenges surrounding government spending patterns, crucial for BigBear.ai’s revenue, add more uncertainty to an already precarious situation.

The company’s innovative efforts, despite their promise of a technological edge, aren’t yet translating into tangible financial success — a factor that stands out in analyst reports. BigBear.ai’s subdued revenue outlook for 2025 further weakens confidence. Without robust strategies to wedge these gaps, the bear-natured market continues to cast a shadow over BigBear.ai’s stock, raising questions about what recuperative measures the management plans to roll out. As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes, says, “It’s not about how much money you make; it’s about how much money you keep.” This adage is particularly poignant as BigBear.ai must balance profitability amidst fluctuating markets. This recent chain of events demonstrates the fragile balance of financial expectations and market reality that BigBear.ai must stride confidently toward achieving future stability and growth.

The current scenario demands insightful interpretations from traders as they navigate BigBear.ai’s unpredictable journey. The company is uniquely positioned with its ties to evolving AI and technological solutions. However, translating these concepts into financial victories requires detailed strategy and solid execution.

In conclusion, BigBear.ai’s path is cluttered with challenges and opportunities alike. Traders must remain vigilantly informed, tracking future financial reports and macroeconomic conditions affecting BigBear.ai’s market segment. Doing so will equip them with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions regarding the trajectory of this AI company.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

Dive deeper into the world of trading with Timothy Sykes, renowned for his expertise in penny stocks. Explore his top picks and discover the strategies that have propelled him to success with these articles:

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Jack Kellogg

He teaches webinars on Tim Sykes’ Trading Challenge He became Tim’s youngest millionaire student in 2020. Now he’s second on the Trading Challenge leaderboard with $12.9 million in career earnings. He’s a master of the 7-Step Pennystocking Framework. Jack is one of a rare breed of traders to profitably trade the entire penny stock framework.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”

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