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BigBear.ai Shares Dive: Time to Reconsider?

Jack KelloggAvatar
Written by Jack Kellogg Reviewed by Tim Sykes Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
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BigBear.ai Inc.’s stock performance on Friday reflects a challenging market sentiment, as evidenced by a price drop of -15.48 percent amid concerns regarding the broader market pressures and potential setbacks in key projects impacting the company’s outlook.

Market Insights

  • Revenue projections for BigBear.ai Holdings’ fiscal year 2025 indicate a range between $160M and $180M, notably below prior consensus estimates of $193.9M.
  • BigBear.ai experienced a remarkable turn in pre-bell hours, with shares dipping by 2.1% after previously climbing 1.5% the day before.
  • Reporting a broadened Q4 net loss of $0.43 per share, BigBear.ai saw its quarterly revenue rise slightly to $43.8M but still fell short of the expected $54.6M.
  • Anticipated revenues for the upcoming year range between $160M-$180M, lower than the analyst expectations hovering around $193.9M. Recent after-hours trading saw a significant drop of about 6%.
  • An announcement indicated Q4 revenues reaching $43.8M, which was underwhelming against FactSet’s estimate of $54.6M and leading to a decline in shareholder confidence.

Candlestick Chart

Live Update At 09:18:07 EST: On Friday, March 07, 2025 BigBear.ai Inc. stock [NYSE: BBAI] is trending down by -15.48%! Discover the key drivers behind this movement as well as our expert analysis in the detailed breakdown below.

Quarter’s Financial Overview

BigBear.ai’s latest earnings report painted a challenging picture. The firm saw a widened net loss, with its Q4 ballooning to $0.43 per share compared to a previous $0.14 loss per share a year earlier. Despite a modest rise in quarterly revenue to $43.8M from $40.6M, the numbers fell short of analysts’ predictions at $54.6M. Forward-looking revenue expectations also missed the mark; projections between $160M and $180M lagged behind FactSet analysts’ aims of nearly $193.9M. As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes, says, “There is always another play around the corner; don’t chase just because you feel FOMO.” In light of these results, traders may need to heed this advice, realizing that patience and strategic decision-making could provide better opportunities in the future.

These figures stirred varied reactions in the market with the stock experiencing much volatility. The rise and fall of share prices reflected apprehension among investors. As the day unfolded, after-hours trading saw shares plunge by nearly 6%, illustrating the weight of the missed projections.

Key financial ratios display concerning profitability statistics with all-important valuations in the red. For instance, the EBIT margin stands at -100.7 with profit margins consistently negative. This paints a picture of a company grappling with profitability challenges, possibly a consequence of increased expenses or the evolving competitive landscape.

More Breaking News

Examining BigBear.ai’s financial health, the balance sheet revealed $354M in total assets, counterbalanced by significant liabilities totaling $255M. While the company maintains a decent current ratio of 2.1, indicating the capability to cover short-term obligations, long-term debt poses risks, with a total debt-to-equity ratio of 2.09.

Unpacking Revenue Projections

The announcement related to BigBear.ai’s expected FY25 revenues (between $160M and $180M) seemed less savory against an analyst forecast of nearly $193.9M, raising questions around the company’s growth trajectory. Such underpins take a toll on investor sentiment, causing stock prices to falter, as seen in recent market behavior.

This revenue shortfall may not arise from lack of business activity, but rather from intensifying competition and evolving market dynamics. Delving deeper reveals these projections heighten the importance of product innovation and strategic business pivots.

Snapshots from Market Trend

In examining recent stock performance, it’s clear BigBear.ai exhibits tendencies synonymous with high-risk scenarios typical of volatile stocks. Closing at $4.20 down from a $4.5 open, but above prior day lows, demonstrates a mirage of stability amidst swings. It’s key to note here the broader market might react similarly to various comparable sector players, given similar conditions.

Five-minute intraday candlestick patterns suggest periodic volatility with fluctuations within narrow bands. This constant ebb and flow should alert traders on their entries.

Conclusion: Assessing the Path Ahead

As BigBear.ai navigates these uncertain waters, keen traders should remain vigilant. With significant Q4 losses, missed revenue expectations, and plummeting share prices, caution is warranted. But the silver lining rests in BigBear.ai’s capacity to realign its strategies and reinvigorate its growth narrative to meet emerging marketplace demands. As millionaire penny stock trader and teacher Tim Sykes, says, “Embrace the journey, the ups and downs; each mistake is a lesson to improve your strategy.” The financial picture presents both challenges and opportunities—as ever, the stakeholders’ lens should remain both sharp and flexible.

This is stock news, not investment advice. Timothy Sykes News delivers real-time stock market news focused on key catalysts driving short-term price movements. Our content is tailored for active traders and investors seeking to capitalize on rapid price fluctuations, particularly in volatile sectors like penny stocks. Readers come to us for detailed coverage on earnings reports, mergers, FDA approvals, new contracts, and unusual trading volumes that can trigger significant short-term price action. Some users utilize our news to explain sudden stock movements, while others rely on it for diligent research into potential investment opportunities.

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”