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Trading Lessons

When To Trade Right Now & When Not To

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Written by Timothy Sykes Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 3/13/2025 5 min read
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Make no mistake, the market is in a scary spot right now.

The S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) already fell 11% from the all-time highs on February 19.

In less than a month, the market retraced its steps all the way to September 2024’s price level.

Take a look at the SPY chart below, every candle represents one trading day:

SPY chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade

And considering the state of economic and political factors, it looks like we could be in for another drop.

Of course I’m talking about the tariffs between the U.S. and some of its closest trade partners, China, Canada, and Mexico.

Luckily, I’m not exposed to this bearish market momentum.

I sit in cash until I see a trade setup that matches my patterns.

It’s one of the best ways to mitigate risk during bearish markets like this.

But … To truly capitalize, we have to focus on very specific time periods. This overall bearish momentum trickles down to our trading niche and can cause weaker stock spikes.

We have to be extra careful right now!

Here’s when to look for trades …

The Best Trading Times Right Now

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I took a nasty loss yesterday, March 13 because I traded during the wrong time period.

Lifeward Ltd. (NASDAQ: LFWD) started to spike during premarket after announcing FDA clearance for its exoskeleton intended for patients with spinal cord injuries.

The price spiked 100% after the announcement, but the momentum quickly faded.

I got caught in the intraday selloff.

Take a look at my trade notes below:

Source: Profitly

A 4% loss and a 5% loss …

I’m not discouraged. Small losses are fine.

But we have to use this as a learning opportunity. During times of intense market fear like this, it’s essential to stay in cash until we see signs of bullish momentum in the larger market.

As I mentioned before, the momentum in the larger market trickles down to our niche.

I have a perfect example of this …

My Trades This Week

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On Wednesday this week, I made some solid gains on three different runners.

Here’s the blog where I cover those positions.

In the larger market that day, we experienced a momentary rebound amid the multi-day selloff.

Then, I traded LFWD on Thursday and lost money while the market resumed the selloff.

Look at the intraday chart of the SPY below. Every candle represents one trading minute:

SPY chart multi-day, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade

Here’s the lesson: Sit on your hands until you see bullish momentum in the market.

There’s no need to complicate things. People can be very predictable during times of heightened market fear or greed.

  • See a red day in the market? Consider taking smaller position sizes. Or don’t trade that day.
  • See a green day in the market? Consider sizing up, but only on the best setups!

There are still trade opportunities during this market fear.

For example, my AI-trading bot alerted us to three profitable trades on Dogwood Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: DWTX) three days in a row!

Look at the alerts overlaid on the charts below:

The AI follows my exact process for gains in the market.

My newest students use it to track the hottest plays until they gain self-sufficiency.

You don’t use AI to support your trade theses?

Well … It’s better late than never 😆

Use AI to work smarter! Not harder.

Cheers.

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”