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Trading Lessons

When To Trade & When To Fish

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 8/20/2024 4 min read
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The market is ON FIRE right now.

Usually, summers are slow for the market. That happens for a few reasons …

  • Investors go on vacation with their families.
  • In general there’s usually less market news.
  • It’s the calm before the Holiday season storm.
  • It’s sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy as well.

But in 2024, that’s not the case.

  • The U.S. economy is fighting high inflation and high interest rates.
  • The AI tech boom is in full swing.
  • The recent market crash was instantly followed by a similarly volatile rally.
  • The political race toward election day is heating up.
  • Tensions are still high globally concerning conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia.

There’s a lot going on!

And all of this volatility creates trade opportunities for me and my students.

As traders, there are times to grind, and there are times to go fishing.

Now is the time to grind!

Look at the chart below … This is the volatility of the S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) in the last few months. Every candle represents one trading day:

SPY chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade

One of my most successful students, Jack Kellogg, just pulled in another whopper of a trade on  … Ironically while he was fishing.

See the post on X below:

Make sure you focus on the hottest setups in the market! You can fish when the market closes, LOL.

Right now it’s time to grind!

The Next Trade Setup

Jack was trading GeoVax Labs Inc. (NASDAQ: GOVX).

The stock spiked 500%* since last Monday in the midst of a minor monkeypox scare.

Take a look at the chart below:

More Breaking News

GOVX chart multi-day, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade

This is where Jack posts his upcoming trade plans.

GOVX is still in play, it hasn’t given back all of its gains yet. And that consolidation can give us follow-up bounces.

But the chart looks different now from when Jack first traded it. And for a new trader, it can be confusing to apply our trading process. Especially when the market is so hot like this.

Don’t worry, there is a way for new traders to track this price action without any prior experience.

GOVX is a volatile stock, but it also likes to follow our framework. So do the rest of these volatile stocks that are in play right now …

  • Applied DNA Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: APDN)
  • Virax Biolabs Group Limited (NASDAQ: VRAX)
  • Cingulate Inc. (NASDAQ: CING)

You can enter any of these tickers into my AI trading bot and it will spot out a trade plan as if you asked me directly!

When AI burst on the scene in early 2023, I instantly recognized its ability to help traders understand my overall trading framework.

These stocks can follow the same patterns over and over again. All it took was a few months of prompting and this trading bot started to get the hang of it.

One of the most recent trades that it alerted was on VRAX, see the alert overlaid on the chart below:

You don’t have to wait for the next trade alert …

>> Enter your favorite stock and start tracking the price action NOW <<

There’s a new trade opportunity EVERY DAY in this 2024 market.

Take advantage of it!!

Cheers.

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results

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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”