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Hidden Divergence in RSI: How Can It Enhance Your Trading?

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 9/13/2024 13 min read

Hidden divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a price trend continuation. Understanding hidden divergence can make the difference between riding a trend successfully and missing out on profitable opportunities.

Read this article because it provides insights on how hidden divergence in RSI can enhance your trading strategies by confirming trend continuations.

I’ll answer the following questions:

  1. What is hidden divergence in RSI, and how does it differ from regular divergence?
  2. How can I identify hidden divergence in RSI charts?
  3. What criteria signal a bullish hidden divergence?
  4. What criteria indicate a bearish hidden divergence?
  5. How often does hidden divergence occur in RSI charts across different markets?
  6. How can hidden divergence in RSI improve my trading strategies?
  7. Can hidden divergence in RSI accurately predict market reversals?
  8. Is hidden divergence with RSI applicable in all market types, including stocks and forex?

Let’s get to the content!

What Is Hidden Divergence in RSI?

Hidden divergence occurs when the RSI indicator moves in the opposite direction of the price action, indicating a continuation of the existing trend rather than a reversal. While regular divergence highlights potential reversals, hidden divergence is all about confirming trend strength and continuation.

Divergence, in general, is an important concept in technical analysis that involves comparing the direction of price movement with the direction of an oscillator, like RSI. Hidden divergence suggests that despite a temporary price pullback, the underlying momentum remains strong, signaling that the trend is likely to continue.

The RSI indicator is an extremely useful tool for becoming a successful trader — but it’s just a part of the process in mastering your trading strategy.

Whatever approach you use, watch my video to find out how to become an expert at it.

How to Identify Hidden Divergence in RSI

Identifying hidden divergence in RSI involves a few key steps:

  1. Identify the prevailing trend: Determine if the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
  2. Look for price pullbacks: In an uptrend, look for higher lows in price; in a downtrend, look for lower highs.
  3. Compare RSI movement: For a bullish hidden divergence, check if RSI is making a lower low while the price makes a higher low. For a bearish hidden divergence, see if RSI is making a higher high while the price makes a lower high.
  4. Confirm with additional analysis: Use trendlines, support, and resistance levels to strengthen the signal.

The importance of historical data in this process cannot be overstated. Analyzing past price movements and RSI behavior can help you distinguish between valid signals and false alarms.

Bullish Hidden Divergence

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Bullish hidden divergence signals can be identified through the following criteria:

  • Price makes a higher low: The market is in an uptrend, but there’s a temporary pullback.
  • RSI makes a lower low: Despite the pullback, RSI shows that the momentum behind the uptrend is still strong.
  • Trendline support: The price remains above a key support level, reinforcing the bullish signal.

These criteria suggest that the uptrend is likely to continue, making it an ideal point to enter or add to long positions. Traders should understand these signals in order to capitalize on bullish trends without getting caught in potential reversals.

Bearish Hidden Divergence

Bearish hidden divergence signals are identified by these specific criteria:

  • Price makes a lower high: The market is in a downtrend, but there’s a temporary bounce.
  • RSI makes a higher high: Despite the bounce, RSI indicates that the downtrend’s momentum is intact.
  • Resistance levels hold: The price fails to break through a significant resistance level, confirming the bearish outlook.

These criteria indicate that the downtrend is likely to persist, providing an opportunity to enter or add to short positions. Recognizing these signals can help traders avoid false breakouts and maintain their positions in the direction of the trend.

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Example of Hidden Divergence

NVDA Hidden Bullish Divergence Chart; SteadyTrade

In the NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) chart above, the RSI shows a hidden bullish divergence, with the price making higher lows while the RSI makes lower lows. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue.

By analyzing this setup, traders could have identified a strong buying opportunity and capitalized on the subsequent price increase.

In addition to identifying hidden divergence through RSI, exploring different methodologies can enhance your strategy. One approach involves the RSI Connors Power Zones, which refines RSI signals by focusing on specific market conditions.

This method helps you pinpoint more accurate entry and exit points, especially in trending markets. For a deeper dive into how this approach works and its application in trading, check out my article on RSI Connors Power Zones.

How Often Does Hidden Divergence Occur in RSI Charts?

In strong, established trends, hidden divergences occur more frequently as the market experiences pullbacks and consolidations. In more volatile or sideways markets, these signals might be less frequent or less reliable.

Some studies suggest that hidden divergence occurs in about 20-30% of trending scenarios, though this can vary across different asset classes like stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies.

The frequency also depends on the specific market being analyzed. For instance, in forex trading, where trends can be more pronounced, hidden divergence might be more common compared to more volatile markets like cryptocurrencies.

Hidden Divergence vs. Regular Divergence in RSI Analysis

AspectHidden DivergenceRegular Divergence
Direction of RSIOpposite to price (trend continuation)Same direction as price (trend reversal)
Market ImplicationConfirms ongoing trendSignals potential reversal
Trading StrategyEntry during pullbacks in a trendExit or reverse positions
Use CaseStrengthens the existing trend signalWarns of possible trend change

Both types of divergences play important roles in technical analysis. Hidden divergence is more about reinforcing your confidence in the current trend, whereas regular divergence might warn you to prepare for a possible reversal.

How to Improve Trading Using RSI Hidden Divergence

Hidden divergence in RSI is a valuable tool that can refine your trading strategies by confirming trend continuations in various market conditions. Here are several actionable tips to incorporate this technique into your trading:

  • Combine RSI with Other Oscillators: Enhance your analysis by pairing RSI hidden divergence with indicators like MACD. This can help you identify differences in momentum across various time frames, providing a more comprehensive view of market trends.
  • Adjust for Market Ranges: In both trending and ranging markets, adjust your strategies based on the strength of the hidden divergence signal. For instance, in a currency pair or cryptocurrency market, hidden divergence can help determine if prices are likely to stay within a certain range or break out.
  • Look for Value in Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Use hidden divergence to assess when a currency or stock is oversold or overbought. This information can be particularly valuable when trying to pinpoint entry and exit points, ensuring you’re buying low and selling high.
  • Integrate Multiple Indicators: For stronger signals, combine hidden divergence with other tools like MACD or volume analysis. This multifaceted approach can clarify the underlying strength of a trend, giving you more confidence in your trades.
  • Review Historical Examples: Study past trades where hidden divergence played a key role in trend continuation. Reviewing these examples can provide crucial insights into how this concept works in real-world scenarios, adding valuable content to your trading journey.

The chart below shows how the MACD indicator works:

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Spot RSI Hidden Divergence for Trends

Use hidden divergence to identify potential trend continuations, especially during pullbacks.

Confirm Entries With Candlestick Patterns

Combine hidden divergence signals with candlestick patterns for stronger confirmation.

Use Volume for Signal Confirmation

Analyze volume levels to validate the strength of the hidden divergence signal.

Set Stop-Losses Near Recent Extremes

Place stop-losses near recent highs or lows to protect against unexpected reversals.

Enter After Confirming Divergence

Always wait for a confirmed divergence signal before entering a trade.

Check Signals Across Time Frames

Validate hidden divergence across multiple time frames to ensure robustness.

Adjust Trades to Signal Strength

Scale your position based on the strength of the divergence signal.

Backtest Your Trade

Always backtest hidden divergence strategies on historical data to validate their effectiveness.

Apply Risk Management

Use strict risk management rules to avoid significant losses.

While hidden divergence is a valuable tool, it can be further enhanced by combining it with the Triple RSI strategy. This approach uses multiple RSI settings to gauge momentum across different time frames, providing a more comprehensive view of market conditions.

This technique is especially useful in volatile markets where a single RSI setting might not be sufficient. To learn more about this strategy and its benefits, read my article, which dives into the Triple RSI Strategy.

Key Takeaways

  • Hidden divergence in RSI can enhance your trading by confirming trend continuations.
  • Identifying hidden divergence involves comparing price action with RSI movement.
  • Use additional tools like trendlines and candlestick patterns to confirm divergence signals.
  • Hidden divergence is more frequent in trending markets, especially during pullbacks.
  • Always backtest and apply risk management when trading based on hidden divergence.

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Is RSI part of your trading playbook? Write “I’ll keep it simple, Tim!” in the comments if you picked up on my trading philosophy!

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Hidden Divergence and RSI Predict Market Reversals Accurately?

Hidden divergence in RSI is not typically used to predict market reversals; rather, it confirms the continuation of an existing trend. While it strengthens the case for trend persistence, it’s not foolproof, and should always be combined with other technical analysis tools.

Is Hidden Divergence with RSI Relevant for All Types of Markets?

Yes, hidden divergence is applicable across various markets, including stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies. However, its effectiveness can vary based on the market’s volatility and the strength of the trend. Traders should adapt their strategies based on the specific market conditions.

Can Beginners Easily Learn to Trade Using Hidden Divergence and RSI?

While learning to trade using hidden divergence and RSI requires some technical knowledge, it is accessible to beginners with practice. Starting with a strong foundation in basic RSI analysis and gradually incorporating divergence strategies is the best approach for new traders.

How Do Hidden Divergence and Regular Divergence Compare in Terms of Trading Decisions?

Hidden divergence and regular divergence serve different purposes, with hidden divergence often indicating trend continuation and regular divergence signaling potential reversals. The key factors to consider include the overall market trend, the timeframe of your analysis, and the specific indicators you’re using alongside RSI, such as volume or MACD..

Can RSI Hidden Divergence Be Effective in Analyzing Series of Trades for Consistent Profits?

Yes, RSI hidden divergence can be particularly useful when analyzing a series of trades within a consistent trend. By recognizing hidden divergence across multiple trades, traders can improve their entry and exit points, leading to more consistent profitability.

Can a Stock Show a Hidden Divergence That Indicates Strong Future Performance?

Yes, a company’s stock might exhibit hidden divergence, indicating that despite a temporary price pullback, the underlying trend is still strong. This can be a signal to traders that the company’s stock is likely to continue its current trend, making it a potential candidate for further analysis.

 


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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity. Read More

* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”