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The NVDA Earnings Catalyst & How To Trade It

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Written by Timothy Sykes Reviewed by Jack Kellogg Fact-checked by Ellis Hobbs
Updated 8/27/2025 6 min read
The NVDA Earnings Catalyst & How To Trade It Thumbnail

It’s finally here.

Today, Wednesday, August 27: NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) announces its quarterly earnings after the closing bell.

This is your last chance to prepare.

Wall Street forecasts huge numbers:

  • A 53% revenue gain.
  • A 48% EPS gain.

NVDA has already beaten Wall Street’s expectations 10 times in a row …

And yesterday we learned from the options market that traders expect a 6% price swing in either direction after the data goes public.

Which equates to a shift of $260 billion in value.

This catalyst has the potential to shake the entire market.

Including the volatile small-cap stocks that my millionaire students and I love to trade.

For example, already this week, as the NVDA momentum grew:

  • Inno Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: INHD) spiked 370%*.
  • Offerpad Solutions Inc. (NYSE: OPAD) spiked 220%*.
  • Allarity Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALLR) spiked 150%*.

And once NVDA’s quarterly data drops this afternoon, we’ll see the volatility increase immediately.

My students and I will look to NVDA for the direction of the market. But the real opportunities come from smaller stocks that run alongside this NVDA volatility.

I already have my eyes on the next setup …

Get all the details here.

And keep reading for more information about:

  • The NVDA earnings catalyst.
  • Past price action related to the earnings.
  • And key AI stocks that I’m watching right now.

NVDA Earnings Breakdown

This company has beat Wall Street’s expectations ten times in a row, ever since the AI boom began in early 2023.

Some beats were larger than others. But without fail, each beat moved the stock’s price and the larger market.

Look at the list of earnings dates below, since February 2023:

Source

I overlaid each data release on the NVDA chart below.

Every candle represents one trading day.

NVDA chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade
NVDA chart multi-month, 1-day candles Source: StocksToTrade

Notice that the stock fell after a few earnings beats.

It’s possible for the stock to fall even though the company performed better than expected.

This is an important phenomenon to understand in the market. For traders, it’s called “buy the rumor, sell the news”.

Here’s how it works: When there’s an upcoming announcement that’s highly publicized, people start to bet on the outcome.

Let’s say that everyone bought shares of NVDA before the earnings announcement in anticipation of a beat. Then the news came out and the company did beat earnings … But everyone who would have bought, already did.

And as a result, all that’s left are sellers.

It’s also possible that the earnings beat is smaller than investors expected. That can be interpreted as a bearish catalyst, which can lead to a sell off.

For that reason … I don’t play guessing games in the market.

Instead, I wait for the market to show me volatility and a general direction. Then I look for my trade patterns in the price action.

Like my trades on Inno Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: INHD) from earlier this week. I profited $1,664 intraday from the 370%* spike.

And I waited until the price action matched my patterns.

Look at my trade notes below:

Source: Profit.ly

My Trade Patterns

Volatile stocks like to follow specific patterns in the market.

It happens because people are predictable during times of high stress. Like when they have a few thousand dollars in a stock that spikes +100% intraday.

For example, twice I used a dip buy pattern to profit from INHD on August 25.

Look at my positions overlaid on the chart below:

INHD chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
INHD chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade

There was even a third dip buy opportunity around 2:30 P.M. Eastern.

These patterns repeat in the stock market.

And thanks to the quick pattern fulfillment, we don’t have to expose our accounts for long.

After NVDA announces earnings this afternoon, I’ll look for these setups on any AI stock that spikes higher.

I’ve got a watchlist full of recent AI runners that could show us follow-up moves:

  • Gaxos.ai Inc. (NASDAQ: GXAI)
      • This stock spiked 160%* starting August 19 after it announced a new AI image platform.
  • VisionWave Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: VWAV)
      • This stock spiked 430%* on July 28 after announcing $50 million secured for its AI defense platform.
  • BioNexus Gene Lab Corp (NASDAQ: BGLC)
      • This stock spiked 400%* on July 1. Then it spiked 100%* on July 30 for its AI-driven business approach. And the price has been consolidating since then.
  • Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ: AEHR)
    • This stock spiked 45% after the company announced that it expanded its AI processor production capacity on August 25.

Plus, I’m also looking for new AI runners that have yet to spike …

This NVDA catalyst has the potential to cause multiple sympathy plays.

Get ready! Once the volatility starts, there’s no time to check your notes.

Cheers

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results

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Author card Timothy Sykes picture

Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”