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Trading Lessons

New Data That Could Make Or Break The Market

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 11/11/2025 5 min read

The market is standing on a cliff. And most people aren’t paying attention.

We’re either …

  1. About to get hit with a massive updraft.
  2. Plummet under a crushing gravity.

After more than 40 days of shutdown silence, the U.S. government is finally about to reopen … But that’s not the catalyst I’m watching.

The real volatility bomb? Two subsequent catalysts as a result of the government’s resumed function.

These catalysts could make or break the entire market. Especially since the market dipped in early November due to the growing AI-bubble fears.

Right now, most investors are nervously bracing for impact. My students and I? We’re circling this trade opportunity on our calendars.

When the market snaps, bullish or bearish, volatility explodes in our small-cap niche. That’s when our patterns work best.

Just ask anyone who watched MMTec Inc. (MTC) rip +1,000% higher last week, starting November 5 … These stocks can explode upward.

Surf the next stock spike, instead of fearing a market drop.

Data Point 1: Potential Labor Shock

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Before the government shutdown, the labor market showed signs of cooling.

That’s initially what prompted the Fed to lower interest rates, despite the inflation concern from tariffs.

And after more than 40 days of silence during the shutdown, the next jobs report could act as a shockwave that spreads through the market.

UBS economists are ringing the alarm: Unemployment claims and available layoff data are chief concerns.

October alone saw 157,000 layoffs, as reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the worst since July 2020.

The cuts seem to hit automation-heavy sectors like tech and warehousing.

  • Amazon slashed 14,000 corporate roles.
  • UPS axed 48,000, a historic layoff.

This is about macro headlines.

If labor data is weaker than the market expected over the last month, it could trigger panic among big-cap stocks. And that volatility will trickle down to our favorite small-cap setups.

Prepare. Stay patient. And treat this coming labor-data day like an earnings release. Let the price action guide your setup.

Assuming the government opens this week, we can expect the labor data sometime next week.

Data Point 2: An Inflation Trap

Next up: CPI.

This is another powder keg.

While labor markets slide, inflation remains sticky. Or at least, that was the picture before the government shutdown.

No one knows the inflation picture over the last month. And if the government resumes operations this week, we could get updated CPI data next week.

The double whammy of weak labor data and high inflation would almost certainly cause a dip in the market.

On the flip side of that coin, strong labor data and low inflation could cause a market surge back to the highs.

And with any muted data in between, there’s no way of knowing how the market will react.

But here’s what we do know …

The big names will react first.

  • If there’s bullish sentiment, especially among tech stocks, I’m looking for volatility among small-cap AI plays.
  • If there’s bearish sentiment, I’m looking for massive short squeezes.

When the market is especially volatile, like it could be next week, my patterns pay out big time.

It’s not about calling the CPI or the labor data correctly. It’s about trading the reaction in the market.

More Breaking News

Wait for the volatility. And look for my setups in the price action.

Proof Of Volatility: Recent Runners

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You don’t have to guess if the volatility is coming. It’s already here.

Just look at what’s been running lately, even before the data hits:

  • MSPR spiked 140%* on November 11.
  • MOVE spiked 340%* on November 10.
  • ORGO spiked 80% since November 7.
  • MTC spiked 1,100%* starting November 5.

When the shutdown lifts and the data floodgates open, we’re going to see this volatility turn up to a ten.

And when it does, small caps that fit the right factors will explode:

  • Low float.
  • Sector sympathy.
  • Breakout charts.
  • Bullish news.

Use the examples that I shared above as a blueprint.

And to ensure you’re prepared for next week’s momentum: Attend the FREE 2-day crash course that starts this Friday, November 14.

Don’t stress about finding the right entries on these stocks.

Learn my entire trade process in one place and start next week ready to go:



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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”