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Trading Lessons

HODLing Is Not a Brave Act

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Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 6/26/2026 4 min read

Consider this a public service announcement…

Every day I see new traders fall for the BS out there on X/Twitter.

Or in scammy Discord chat rooms.

One of the worst pieces of advice the meme stock morons and crypto bros give is…

“HODL! Eventually it WILL come back.”

That’s just stupid. Plain and simple.

No stock or company or crypto EVER has to come back.

And you can’t predict how far any stock, or the overall markets can drop.

Especially when you see this…

The Setup: Classic Profit Taking After a Huge Runup

The overall market ended ugly last week. And it wasn’t just the U.S. markets.

The South Korean market got wrecked overnight on Friday.

KOSPI, South Korean Composite Index, 6/25-26/26
KOSPI, South Korean Composite Index, 6/25-26/26

It got halted for the second time in a week after dropping more than 8%.

Why does this matter for U.S. markets?

Because traders and investors are worried about chip stocks and a bust of the AI boom.

OpenAI’s reported IPO delay didn’t help.

After the big tech runup the last few weeks, this looks like classic profit taking.

Why I’m Being Overly Safe 

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Look at last week’s SPDR S&P 500 ETF chart…

SPY 5-day, 5-min, 6/23-26/26, no bounce
SPY 5-day, 5-min, 6/23-26/26, no bounce

The overall market dropped a lot with no real bounce.

At the same time, we’re still VERY overextended and heading into summer.

Here’s the SPY 1-year chart…

SPY, 1-yr, daily candle, 200 MA, still overextended
SPY, 1-yr, daily candle, 200 MA, still overextended

It wouldn’t surprise me to see more downside.

And if that happens, all the recent dip buyers might panic (it could get UGLY).

Maybe I’m being overly safe, but that’s how I think.

With the momentum draining out of the highly inflated South Korean market, it could kill tech stocks worldwide.

The key lesson is…

HODLing Is an Act of Naive Idiocy

Remember to cut losses quickly.

Too many newbies mistakenly believe that HODLing is necessary to make big money.

The reality is…

HODLing is a way to LOSE big money.

Millionaire Moves

Over the weekend we held an Inner Circle meetup in Boston.

It’s amazing so many of my millionaire students LOVE to give back by becoming Inner Circle mentors.

If you’re interested in working with a small group of very serious traders, check out my interview with Strati. (Strati is also an Inner Circle mentor.)

You Have Options

If you’ve ever wondered about trading options, my friend Ben Sturgill has a bootcamp on July 7th and 8th.

There are a limited number of free tickets available.

I recommend you get the VIP ticket because it includes a video masterclass and a breakout session with Ben.

PLUS: you get access to Ben’s Dynamic Watchlist.

Get your ticket to Ben’s Simpler Options Bootcamp here 

Key Takeaway

Be aware of what’s happening in the overall markets.

But also be aware of markets in other parts of the world.

Especially the Asian markets right now because so much tech manufacturing is based there.

We are due for a pullback. It would be good for the markets.

But you have NO IDEA how far it could drop if a selloff turns into panic.

Stay safe.

Cheers,

 

– Tim Sykes

 


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Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
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* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”