timothy sykes logo

Patterns To Watch

How To Tell a Diamond From a Dud Before the Spike

Timothy SykesAvatar
Written by Timothy Sykes
Updated 1/12/2026 5 min read

We’ve already seen a few stocks this week capable of growing your account.

And the opportunities are far from over.

On Monday …

  • A medical diagnostics stock spiked 80%.
  • A global retail stock spiked 110%*.
  • An EV stock spiked 280%*.

To me and my students, these setups were obvious.

The biggest stock spikes don’t happen by accident. And on Monday, the proof lit up the market like a round of fireworks.

There are hundreds of stock spikes every week. Most of them are noise. But buried in that chaos are the diamonds. The explosive tickers that move by huge percentages and give us the best opportunities to pull gains.

There’s a way to tell the difference between a diamond and a dud …

Every massive spike, every 50%, 100%, 300% intraday move, they all share two simple characteristics.

Stop playing low-odds setups. Focus on the strongest runners.

Factor #1: Float

A low float is the oxygen that adds fuel to every major spike in the market.

The float’s size can mean the difference between an explosive breakout and a fade below earlier support.

When a stock has a tiny supply of shares available to trade, it doesn’t take much volume to move the price. When the crowd rushes in, the share price can rip hundreds of percentage points higher in a single day.

It’s a basic law of supply and demand: Too many buyers, not enough shares.

Our goal is below 10 million shares in the float.

But a low float is only one half of the equation.

Factor #2: Catalyst

The low float supplies oxygen for the flame.

But the catalyst is the true fuel.

Every explosive spike starts with a catalyst that gets traders’ attention and floods the stock with volume.

It could be breaking news about a new contract, FDA approval, a merger, an earnings surprise, or a government grant.

The longer you’re in the market, the more catalysts you’ll see. Any bullish news for a company can turn into a catalyst for a spike.

The news is what turns a forgotten penny stock into a front-page frenzy. It creates urgency, it attracts momentum traders, algorithms, even average Joe’s on Facebook.

Suddenly they’re all fighting for the same limited shares because of the bullish news catalyst.

Understand, not every headline is worth trading. The key is identifying fresh, high-impact news that connects directly to current market themes. Like AI, EVs, biotech, energy, whatever’s hot that week.

More Breaking News

Combine that kind of news with a low float … And you’ve just spotted your next diamond in the rough.

Monday’s Examples

The three moves from Monday that I shared earlier, they all have these two factors in common:

  • Biodesix Inc. (NASDAQ: BDSX) spiked 80% after announcing bullish fourth quarter and full year results.
    • The float is 3.8 million shares.
  • Lulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLU) spiked 110%* after Friedland Enterprises disclosed a 5% stake in the company.
    • The float is 1.2 million shares.
  • Envirotech Vehicles Inc. (NASDAQ: EVTV) spiked 440%* after it announced a merger with AZIO AI, an AI company with $100 million of government purchase orders.
    • The float is 3.9 million shares.

Their respective charts from Monday are below.

Every candle represents one trading minute:

BDSX chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
BDSX chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
LVLU chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
LVLU chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
EVTV chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade
EVTV chart intraday, 1-minute candles Source: StocksToTrade

Keep these stocks on your watchlist this week.

There’s no telling how many days they could run. Especially now that they have a full day of spiking and consolidation to settle above.

Plus, every morning, look for new low float spikers with news. This should become second nature for you.

Cheers

 

*Past performance does not indicate future results



How much has this post helped you?



Leave a reply

Author card Timothy Sykes picture

Timothy Sykes

Tim Sykes is a penny stock trader and teacher who became a self-made millionaire by the age of 22 by trading $12,415 of bar mitzvah money. After becoming disenchanted with the hedge fund world, he established the Tim Sykes Trading Challenge to teach aspiring traders how to follow his trading strategies. He’s been featured in a variety of media outlets including CNN, Larry King, Steve Harvey, Forbes, Men’s Journal, and more. He’s also an active philanthropist and environmental activist, a co-founder of Karmagawa, and has donated millions of dollars to charity.
Read More

* Results are not typical and will vary from person to person. Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing in the stock market, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. See Terms of Service here

The available research on day trading suggests that most active traders lose money. Fees and overtrading are major contributors to these losses.

A 2000 study called “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors” evaluated 66,465 U.S. households that held stocks from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded most averaged an 11.4% annual return during a period where the overall market gained 17.9%. These lower returns were attributed to overconfidence.

A 2014 paper (revised 2019) titled “Learning Fast or Slow?” analyzed the complete transaction history of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1992 and 2006. It looked at the ongoing performance of day traders in this sample, and found that 97% of day traders can expect to lose money from trading, and more than 90% of all day trading volume can be traced to investors who predictably lose money. Additionally, it tied the behavior of gamblers and drivers who get more speeding tickets to overtrading, and cited studies showing that legalized gambling has an inverse effect on trading volume.

A 2019 research study (revised 2020) called “Day Trading for a Living?” observed 19,646 Brazilian futures contract traders who started day trading from 2013 to 2015, and recorded two years of their trading activity. The study authors found that 97% of traders with more than 300 days actively trading lost money, and only 1.1% earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ($16 USD per day). They hypothesized that the greater returns shown in previous studies did not differentiate between frequent day traders and those who traded rarely, and that more frequent trading activity decreases the chance of profitability.

These studies show the wide variance of the available data on day trading profitability. One thing that seems clear from the research is that most day traders lose money .

Millionaire Media 66 W Flagler St. Ste. 900 Miami, FL 33130 United States (888) 878-3621 This is for information purposes only as Millionaire Media LLC nor Timothy Sykes is registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser. No information herein is intended as securities brokerage, investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any company, security or fund. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes cannot and does not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes in no way warrants the solvency, financial condition, or investment advisability of any of the securities mentioned in communications or websites. In addition, Millionaire Media LLC and Timothy Sykes accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decision, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.

Citations for Disclaimer

Barber, Brad M. and Odean, Terrance, Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. Available at SSRN: “Day Trading for a Living?”

Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance and Zhang, Ke, Learning Fast or Slow? (May 28, 2019). Forthcoming: Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=2535636”

Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: “https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101”