Blog Archives:
Why ANALysts Make Me Sick To My Stomach
Posted by timothysykes on Mon 1st of Sep, 2008 09:36:21 PM
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A few weekends back, I read these 2 Marketwatch articles that came out within hours of each other and couldn’t help but laugh. “Pieces might be in place for dollar to sustain gains” says this:
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Why ANALysts Are Useless For Individual Investors: Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) & Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Posted by timothysykes on Sat 23rd of Aug, 2008 06:00:50 PM Sponsor Offer:
I rag on ANALysts quite a bit, probly cuz their track records uniformly suck and yet they still get paid some decently to suck. More importantly, many people actually listen to these people who suck (Is that why they’re called suckers?)
Check out this example of typical shoddy ANALyst work:
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Why You Should Never Take Advice From Anyone aka Learn The Game Yourselves You Fat Lazy American Slobs!
Posted by Timothy Sykes on Fri 8th of Aug, 2008 05:15:24 PM Sponsor Offer:
Got this emailed to me:
Over the last week I learned a few valuble leassons, and came to the conclusion that CNBC is full of S@#*%!! I have 8,000 in my account and trade pennystocks, i swear by Tims dvd and broke a few rules… I bought a real company and held for a week. Im scared to hold for an hour but yet I went along and held a stock for a week. Fast money was pumping it and I thought it was a good play. Turns out EMC is a piece of crap and so is the Fast Money crew.. I bought EMC at $15.54 on a Thursday DURING AFTER HOURS!!! I thought with all the news and the pumping it would hit $18 a share. I went to bed praying it would hit $18. The next day I was down a small $300 and thought I would let it run.. I let it run alright I held over the weekend and watch this crappy thing drop and then rebound.. for some reason I was stubborn, I was reassuring myself with the message boards people saying it would hit $18.
On 8/5 EMC was having confrence about some new software and I thought onj Tuesday it would sky rocket.. well I was wrong!!! It just dropped!! WTF this turd of a company cant even break $15 and I think it will hit $18. Turns out Tim was right don’t play real companies, and stay disciplined… I brok all of the rules and relized Tim knows what hes talking about. Turns out CNBC i s full of liers, and pumpers.. Cramer pumps stocks, Fast Money are just full of S#$*, and real companies SUCK!!! So taking a $1000 loss isn’t the end of the world but knowing you could of controlled the oss SUCKS! SO now I need to go rewatch Tims DVD, reread his book, and really need to concentrate on pennystocks. I sold EMC at $14.58 and is now rebounding as I write this but what the hell… All I can say is STICK TO PENNYSTOCKS, and CNBC IS FULL OF S&*^!! THANKS TIM!!
Unfortunately, this is
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What Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones Thinks About Oil…
Posted by timothysykes on Wed 16th of Jul, 2008 11:34:38 AM Sponsor Offer:
You know how I’m always saying don’t listen to anybody in the financial media cuz none of them have any major trading gains/wealth, all just claim to have “experience”. (And no, Cramer’s $50mil does not count as “major” trading gains.) Well, there are a few good men out there that have more than experience, they have fortunes, so when they talk, you should listen.
Before I featured what billionaire George Soros had to say about the economy (see interview HERE), now it’s time for you to hear what fellow legendary/billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones (see bio HERE), a guy who banked during the 1987 crash, now oversees $18 billion, and hasn’t had a down year since he began in 1980, says about oil coming at you thanks to an article in Alpha by way of a great post on 1440:
Is the price of oil high for fundamental reasons, or are hedge fund managers and Wall Street driving it up?
It’s a very bullish supply-and-demand situation, and the peak oil theory is probably correct. But the run-up in prices is now bringing in an enormous amount of speculative, nontraditional capital such as pension funds and university endowments — principally through index products.
Commodities have been the worst-performing asset class behind stocks, bonds and real estate for the past 200 years, but Wall Street doesn’t highlight that long history when selling commodity index instruments today. Instead, it shows a chart of the bull market of the past 12 years to rationalize why some pensioner should be long cattle futures in the derivatives markets as part of a basket.
I am sure they were using similar logic about tulips three centuries ago. Oil is a huge mania, and it’s going to end badly. We’ve seen it play out hundreds of times over the centuries, and this is no different. It’s just the nature of a rip-roaring bull market. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.
Click the links above to the original article, but yes, you heard it from the billionaire himself–he thinks the oil bubble goes pop. Interesting, to say the least, especially for longterm shareholders of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Schlumberger Limited (SLB) who have all become fat and cocky with too many profits. Now, there are several billionaires who would disagree, but they mostly got that way through investing in the industry whereas PTJ is one of the greatest traders of all time.
On a slow pump and dump day like today, this is something to think about…a fun little guessing game. A few months back, I was fortunate enough to have an hour or so chat with PTJ’s right hand man, Peter Borish, and came away thoroughly impressed so based on that convo and PTJ’s track record, I’d go with them, just as people thinking about trading penny stocks should learn from someone with a superior track record like me (see the ultimate guide to Penny Stock trading aka PennyStocking HERE!)
The SEC Mandated Debate + Prohibition On Short Selling=Government Sponsored Market Tyranny/Only Chance In Hell To Bottom
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 15th of Jul, 2008 02:45:37 PM Sponsor Offer:
So now–after the public complains loud enough cuz they’re losing their asses in their “value investments” (learn to do some f%^&en due diligence you sh$%heads)–Osama bin SEC field agents have sent subpoenas, aka instruments of terror, to hedge fund managers and traders who are spreading bad rumors in order to profit from short selling these embarrassing financial companies.
Hell, right in the middle of me writing this post, Osama’s decided they’re even gonna clamp down on allowing people to short sell these turds! Just their latest terrorist act since they believe anyone who preaches and practices financial freedom to be infidels. (Emergency measures my Jew-ass, the problem lay with the companies and the leverage/power/manipulative-marketing-schemes themselves, not those who are smart enough to realize how fu$#ed these leverage/coke-loving bandits truly are, most assuredly business-wise and stock-wise too until the SEC just gave them a get out of jail free card for the latter)
This is big news–Osama bin SEC is mobilizing their terrorist committees so it’s gotta be covered by the financial media circus, giving us time-wasting debates like THIS one. I like that my man Lindzon defends short sellers, actually most of the people on there do, but WTF is the point of the whole debate in the first place?
Big bad SEC gonna investigate, rumors bad, punish bad opportunists, short selling so bad, or is it good, maybe it’s good, maybe companies are bad, why no SEC investigate them, oh wait, they hire lobbyists, they rich, they get government peeps in trouble, SEC no want lobbyist trouble, SEC weak, back to short sellers bad, commentators know it not fair, they smart, learn SEC, learn, watch Fox Biz, too bad nobody watches, lobbyists win, SEC stop short sellers…
Does Fox Biz really not understand that people don’t
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This Is Why I Don’t Short Financial Companies Like Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)
Posted by timothysykes on Sun 13th of Jul, 2008 09:28:57 PM Sponsor Offer:
I’ve said it once, I’ve said a million times–PennyStocking deals with pump and dumps, frauds, little crappy companies….not real companies, not financial plays, not commodity plays. Tonight’s news that the US is unveiling a plan to back up FRE and FNM means these two stocks are gonna surge tomorrow morning. It’s why the market futures are surging right now. It means that no matter their
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Thank You Covestor For These 100 Stocks To Avoid
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 10th of Jul, 2008 12:55:34 PM Sponsor Offer:
You know how I’m always being weird by saying “I don’t play real companies I prefer frauds and pump and dumps”? Well, obviously there’s my 70% return over the past few months now backing me up, but for further proof, after you check out THIS list of 100 of the most actively traded stocks by people on Covestor, you’ll understand 2 things–
1. it’s pretty much all the most
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MarketMania Cage Match: Jim Cramer vs. Ken Heebner
Posted by timothysykes on Wed 9th of Jul, 2008 07:33:25 PM Sponsor Offer:
Unlike most financial freaks, you know I like to stay faaaaaaar away for the economic guessing game, not because I don’t have opinions/do research on consumer spending, oil, housing, etc. but because I don’t pretend to be able to guess the changing time lags associated with pricing these issues into the stock market. Yup, that’s right, there are tons of time lags and we petty humans have no friggin idea.
So, I’ll keep making my pretty non-scalable 7 month 70% returns and let others whose business is scalable guessing games duke it out.
Tonight’s death match is between two “financial experts” who are polar opposites:
“There’s Always A Bull Market Somewhere” Jim Cramer who has suddenly started saying inappropriate/dangerous/emotional stuff like
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Guess Yahoo’s Monday Closing Price, Win A Free Autographed Book!
Posted by timothysykes on Sun 4th of May, 2008 10:41:48 AM Sponsor Offer:
Since this YHOO/MSFT thing is such an absolute joke, little different from the Ashley Dupre affair and thanks to some solid brainstorming with my friends at TheLion.com, I was inspired to make it into a somewhat useful waste of time by doing a similarly themed giveaway: one free autographed copy of my book, An American Hedge Fund, to whoever guessed YHOO’s opening price Monday morning.
But since great minds think alike, and the greater the mind, the quicker it thinks, Lindzon beat me to it, offering up some cool free yoga gear.
The blogosphere ain’t about copying so to be unique / make it infinitely more difficult / random / annoying, to win an autographed copy of my book, leave a comment on this post guessing YHOO’s CLOSING price on Monday!
Breaking News: Microsoft (MSFT) Withdraws Offer To Acquire Yahoo (YHOO)…My Take
Posted by timothysykes on Sat 3rd of May, 2008 08:29:37 PM Sponsor Offer:
I tried very hard not to cover this breaking news of Microsoft withdrawing their offer to acquire Yahoo! as I believe it to be utterly useless for trading purposes, especially since we all know there’s gonna be 5,000 articles in the next 24 hours written about it, but the official press release contains some pretty funny stuff towards the end–at least for corporate speak–so it’d be rude of me not to share:
I still believe even today that our offer remains the only alternative put forward that provides your stockholders full and fair value for their shares. By failing to reach an agreement with us, you and your stockholders have left significant value on the table.
But clearly a deal is not to be.
Thank you again for the time we have spent together discussing this.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ Steven A. Ballmer
Yah, that’s just the end of the PR, but the rest of it basically just says you YHOO pricks shoulda taken our money and not been so greedy cuz now we’re gonna clobber you, just like we’ve been doing for a while, not because we’re that good or smart but cuz you guys suck worse. Seriously, that’s what it says. Ballmer admits it. Read it yourself.
UPDATE: This is getitng funnier by the hour…Yahoo! responds in THIS PR saying bah blah blah…here’s the funny part of CEO Yang trying to get back at Ballmer’s putdown:
Jerry Yang, co-founder and chief executive officer, Yahoo! Inc. added, “I am incredibly proud of the way our team has come together over the last three months. This process has underscored our unique and valuable strategic position. With the distraction of Microsoft’s unsolicited proposal now behind us, we will be able to focus all of our energies on executing the most important transition in our history so that we can maximize our potential to the benefit of our shareholders, employees, partners and users.”
It’s like two old former soap stars bickering cuz now they’re both too ugly for daytime TV. Yang, you better STFU cuz you about to get sued by all your shareholders you arrogant @$!hole
My Take On Visa Inc (V) aka Baseball Card Collecting In The 1990s
Posted by timothysykes on Fri 25th of Apr, 2008 08:15:45 AM Sponsor Offer:
No matter how many times I say stick to trades with ideal risk-reward ratios for the smaller investor—those being media-hype plays and pumps and dumps courtesy of your friendly local stock promoter, the questions about random real companies keep streaming in—none moreso than Visa (V). The emails came from far and wide and helped inspire the thesis of THIS AOL article I wrote about the company the morning before its IPO. Yup, I was dead right. So how did I know it’d follow a VMware (VMW)-type trajectory; because simple theories work best.
Think about it, everybody and their other mother is comfortable with the strategy of buy what you know, buy blue-chip companies—blehhhhhhh! The absurd popularity of that strategy makes me gag because while it’s worked well in the past, it’s sooooo old news now. I’ll use the example highlighted in my book An American Hedge Fund by comparing this strategy to baseball card collecting—everybody growing up in the 1980s and 1990s who collected those stupid little pieces of cardboard dreamed of their values soaring into the thousands of dollars, just like those cards from back in the 1950s and 1960s.
Unfortunately, the card companies took advantage of this great track record and us suckers, producing those cards en mass and us kids—ignorant to the laws of supply and demand—bought them en mass, only too happy to pack them away and wait to collect our inevitable rewards.
Revolt Of The Untalented Financial Writers!
Posted by timothysykes on Fri 11th of Apr, 2008 02:55:43 PM Sponsor Offer:
Many of you are familiar with Seeking Alpha articles–mostly because SA’s founder David Jackson did a great job getting his content onto Yahoo! Finance–it ain’t due to the quality of work! It’s more because the financial media circus is all about more content.
Breaking news, earnings, scandals…bleh blah blah, all the most active stocks must be covered and dissected by boring-ass stuck-up finance freaks, all of whom put together are less entertaining than a block of wood all while they consistently underperform the major indexes aka people who should have no audience whatsoever and instead focus on learning how to beat the market and not being scum-sucking fee-earning marketers who take advantage of the general public’s lack of market understanding.
So, it’s rather funny to me–and it should be to you too–that many of these wannabes are revolting against SA, angry they’re not getting paid for their efforts.
Why Bess Levin Is The Only Financial Commentator You Should Ever Listen To
Posted by timothysykes on Wed 9th of Apr, 2008 11:59:18 AM Sponsor Offer:
Big Picture Barry Ritholtz likes getting quoted in the press…trust me, I know the feeling, I also went through that phase…but what good does it do? Everything the senile-old-man-esque financial press covers has soooo many variables, sooooo many moving parts, sooooooo many time lags involved and most importantly, can be framed any number of ways. It’s all just one big guessing game where you HAVE NO EDGE WHATSOEVER, so luck and leverage aside, you can NEVER increase your wealth substantially.
You know my take, small investors and traders need to stop worrying about the news/macro/popular issues and learn to profit from more niche-oriented/inefficient hence predictable stuff like PennyStocking! That’s where the big % returns lie–no leverage needed–and if you really want financial gossip, don’t turn to CNBC, just visit Dealbreaker for some Bess Levin commentary…at least she’s funny.
Damn All You People Who Contribute To Market Randomness!
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 18th of Mar, 2008 01:09:00 PM Sponsor Offer:
Do you every wonder why EVERYONE in the finance world has an opinion on stocks like Bear Stearns (BSC)? Sure, sure, BSC is big time and their collapse could lead to others, the whole domino effect, but why do people believe they can accurately judge the outcome? I think it’s just the latest example of how this industry—Wall Street and those who cover Wall Street—operates. And why you smaller investors/traders, like TIM, should have nothing to do with it! I’ll explain…
Look around at the most popular finance websites/blogs and you’ll see what I mean, TheStreet.com, Fool, Yahoo! Finance, CNBC, Marketwatch, FOX Business, Reuters, Bloomberg, Big Picture, Kedorsky, I could name these CRIMINALS all day. I say criminals because they’re all guilty—guilty of focusing their attention on popular, yet highly unpredictable situations, perpetrating the lie that makes everyone think the stock market is so difficult to understand. And they should be locked up. Or maybe just their fingers cut off and tongues cut out. Either or.
TIM Lesson: The vast majority of stock market randomness exists only in the most broadly covered topics!
Oh wait that actually makes some sense, doesn’t it? You’re damn right it does!
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Two Examples Why You Should Never Underestimate Takeover Rumors
Posted by timothysykes on Mon 25th of Feb, 2008 09:45:46 AM Sponsor Offer:
People love shorting strong stocks that are up on takeover rumors. They reason “these companies are blah blah blah” and “their businesses are blah blah blah”. I won’t use any examples because the details are quite inconsequential, it’s the same pattern again and again. No matter how good or bad a company is, how full of BullShip the management is (good!)(for shareholders) or bad they are (meaning they’re idiots or they tell the truth)(first one is common, second, extremely rare, aka never, but if it did happen, it’d be bad for shareholders because the truth is ugly), the industry, the potential, the hot tip your roommate/coworker/mistress tells you about the play, whatever, these rumors may turn out to be true. So, what are short sellers doing—they’re playing the classic Wall Street guessing game. Right or wrong, they give short sellers a bad name. I want no part of it. Let me explain.
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