Thanks Tim, I believe I will wait for something close and then sell it take the loss and move on

john, i have no idea, the odds are against u though

Yo Tim,

I own RTK at 1.38 per share, any chance this thing has the legs to post up and over in the next 6 months?

You are right yng. We are all whiners. I cannot do anything but whine here, can I? And you can't either, which is why you are whining too. Welcome to the whining club! Hope you earn enough like Tim to get out of the PDT rule. And until then, hope to hear more whining from you, and I will continue to whine as well.

Moby,

Tim used to bitch about the PDT all the time...and rightly so. I never saw you complain that Tim was being "whiny". And I'll bitch about it as much as I want to....no one said you had to read my blog or had to listen. I may have to abide by the rule but no one said I have to like it.

And regarding manipulation....funny because Muddy, a top level trader for 40 years, called that stock manipulated as well. No one questions him, but when a newbie like myself calls it that, suddenly I'm being "whiny."

And of course, aren't you being a whiner by whining about my whininess?

yng, anything can happen in the market. you can complain all you want and call it "manipulation" or even "alien invasion" or whatever shit you want.

Nobody forced you to put that trade. Since you are in, you either hold on to it or get out. Simple. Stop being a whiny bastard and expect bailouts or the SEC to stop the manipulation. And stop all your complaining about PDT, it is so sickening. You either trade well and get over 25k, or earn the money yourself.

Whiny bastards, complain this complain that is all you do.

yes the volume doesnt matter, a few shorts covered into the close at the ask, i was watching, it wasnt that weird, its a friggin friday!

A short squeeze? On that low of volume? The price jumped from $3.65 to $4 in seconds on very few shares traded (compared to the rest of the day). The ask kept going up and the bid just stayed at $3.65. The price had been falling all afternoon, not squeezing. The weird price action happened in the last few minutes.

Muddy was talking about this stock yesterday; he's been watching it for 3 days and suspects manipulation too....he would see the big bid/ask spread, and then see the ask price go up while the bid went down at the same time. In fact, he didn't play this one because of the weird price action.

yngvai, its not manipultion, its called a friday afternoon short squeeze, i talk about it often

Friday, November 21, 2008
Rentech
Ticker Symbol RTK
Current Price .50 cents per share

For an Aggressive short-term trade I like Rentech at this current level. Rentech will also be releasing 2008 financial statements in the middle of December. Rumor has it these numbers will be very positive.

Rentech’s stock price has been crushed recently along with everyone else:
15 days down –43%
45 days down –62%
65 days down –79%

But keep in mind the last time Rentech hit .46 cents a share was October 27th and the stock proceeded to rally .43 cents to .87 cents a share. An 89 percent rally in 7 days. Since March of this year a 40 to 80 percent fluctuation in price has been common and I look for this type of volatility to continue. Rentech could easily exceed a $1.20 per share before year-end based on a number of reasons.

Rentech’s management is currently in a pickle. The stock has dropped significantly and they need results ASAP if they want to be able to justify those year-end bonuses. In addition, all stock options are underwater including those belonging to the board of directors. As we have seen in the past, Rentech actively manages their stock price by issuing press reports before they release their latest financial numbers. Only to be followed with additional press releases over the next week or two, all in an attempt to move the stock. One news release could easily move Rentech’s stock price .50-.60 cents a share like it has done so many times in the past. Two or more press releases could be very significant.

Press releases for Rentech's alternative energy segment could focus on:
* Technology licensing partnerships = Revenue increase
* Revenue and cost sharing relationships = Revenue increase and cost decrease
* New business strategies and directions = Shareholder assurance
* New product sales revenue generated by their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- leading the way to future business opportunities as companies discover value in Rentech’s numerous gas to liquid products = Revenue increase and shareholder assurance
* Continued process improvements at their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- facility in Commerce City, CO = Shareholder assurance

Keep in mind Rentech recently reaffirmed EBITDA guidance for their fertilizer plant and there’s a good chance Rentech will post a net income, something they haven’t done in years. Moving from a net loss to a net income would be a significant event and I think the street HAS NOT priced this into the stock. The completion of their Product Demonstration Unit -PDU- means a reduction in expenses combined with record fertilizer sales revenue, greater demand for corn for ethanol based fuel, could translate to a positive earnings per share. Management needs a homerun if they want to justify year-end bonuses; there’s an incentive for them to be aggressive. Shareholders are less likely to be pissed off when they hear about seven figure total compensation packages when the stock is trading at $3.15 versus .50 cents a share. Again, management has a strong incentive to move this stock and all stock options are currently underwater.

Press releases for Rentech's fertilizer segment could focus on:
* Record fertilizer sales revenue growth for fiscal year 2008
* Very favorable EBITDA guidance for 2009
* Favorable asset valuation discussion of their fertilizer plant

Rentech has a tangible asset that’s extremely valuable and it generates a tremendous amount of cash, their fertilizer plant Rentech Energy Midwest Corporation -REMC-. The value of this plant alone creates a support at the current level of .50 cents a share, if not higher, helping to reduce downside risk. Rentech currently has 166 million shares outstanding and their fertilizer plant alone is valued between 120-210 million. A quick back of the envelope calculation, 122/166 and 210/166, suggests a stock price between .73 to $1.27 per share. Rentech is currently trading at .50 cents a share.

As reported at Mutual Fund Facts About Individual Stocks -MFFAIS- the overall number of institutional owners has recently increased 20 percent from 81 to its current level of 97. This is very positive.
Institutions adding to an already existing position include:
Goldman Sachs added 825,221 shares
Vanguard Group added 5,662,885 shares
Barclays Global Investors added 1,918,971 shares
Credit Suisse added shares
Putnam added shares
Oppenheimer added shares
Northern Trust added shares
Bank of New York Mellon added shares
Bank of America added shares
Wells Fargo added shares

There’s a large short position, I believe 8-9 million shares and it’s probably a safe assumption that these sellers are in the money since Rentech is currently near 52-week lows. If Rentech’s stock price does move quickly, press releases and an overall market rally, we could see short sellers add to the buying as they lock in profits. This 1-2 combo could move Rentech’s stock price in excess of .40 cents a share.

Because of a crisis in confidence the major indices, DJIA and S&P 500, have seen a record a setting retreat in the last 30 days, especially in the last 7, and the market is due for a 1,200-point rally. This alone could move Rentech’s stock price .30 cents a share.

new post:

http://timothysykes.com/2008/11/21/thinking-abo...

Check the afterhours of almost every stock (I'm guessing RMTI doesn't trade AH). People have realized that buying based on the Geithner announcement was completely irrational. The open Monday will erase almost all of the up-fingering. In fact, if you look at historical market, any time these sudden end moves have happened, they are erased the next day.

The explanation I've read for these end of day moves is that when the market moves in one direction or another, it's also indicate of if people are buying into or selling out of their mutual funds. So mut fund managers have to buy or sell at the end of day to get their investments in line with the changes ordered that day. So a down market creates this artificial need to sell and and up one creates an artificial need to buy. Might be just wall street bullshit, but I've been seeing these things for weeks now and it follows a pattern.

Thank you Yngvai

Hellboy BTW why do you want RTMI to go to infinity?

Nojobmaui,

Great post.

Yeah, I was thinking that trading in the last minute or two was some idiots who used market orders...so the market makers just kept walking the ask up and idiots kept buying at the higher price. There was a 37 cent or 10% spread on the bid/ask in those last few minutes.

that last mark at 4.2 was most likely caused by some loser wanabe trader putting in a market order. It goes like most things such as the talking heads spinning the 500 point gain on the Dow because some fed bank guy is going to the next treasury supidatary and save the economy...please don't insult me I have some brains and can think for myself. Or how about he chairs of the Congress and Senate saying no to the big 3 because they won't tell the powers that be how the money will be used.....so how come they didn't ask AIG or any other bailout recipient what they were going to do with the money, just here's the money, take it. Maybe its because the big 3 CEO's weren't pals with Paulson. BTW when Pelosi said they shouldn't show up in DC flying on corp jets and rattleing a tin cup she should think back to when she became speaker and said she needed a bigger jet. Unreal

"There’s some serious manipulation going on with this stock."

Wow, how did you know? Perhaps Tim was behind it!

A wide spread happens all the time, especially with low volumes at times. Bid and Ask are determined by how much people are willing to buy or sell.

Hope RMTI goes to infinity!

I'm guessing that you're talking about RMTI. There's some serious manipulation going on with this stock. I shorted at $4.20, and it was around $3.60 near the close. I was up nearly $500. Suddenly the ask price skyrocketed into the $4's in the last few minutes, but the bid stayed at $3.60ish. The stock closed at $4.20 with the bid still remaning at $3.60ish. And there weren't even that many shares traded in the last few minutes.

Here's to hoping it opens right back up at $3.60ish on Monday.