CHATROOM

Coulda Woulda Shoulda: When Life Makes You Miss Multi-Day Breakouts & Some Other Stocks To Watch

April 3, 2008 at 8:38 am
by timothysykes

Watch these 7 free video lessons on how I became a millionaire

Fess Up Time: Don’t ya hate when you put a stock on your watchlist, tell yourself you’ll trade it if it acts a certain way, but when that special price action occurs, for some reason, you’re not watching it? I’m sure there are those out there who don’t make such bush league mistakes, but I’m not one of them.

Thanks to the popularity of my latest AOL article—about how Amazon has tried blackmailing small publishers like me–I’ve been talking to a couple of reporters—surprise—and much of that talk happens during the trading day, causing me to miss more than a few potential trades. Oh yeah and incessant blogging doesn’t help.

Now, I hate buying breakouts—they move too slowly, happen to stocks that are too expensive or retrace/fakeout too often, so out of all the stocks below I really only regret missing out on NCEN, because that my friends is the f&^$en Mona Lisa of technical breakouts

NCEN–probly going to $3+, easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy 30-50 cents/share, or 10-20%, buy on the intraday break of $2.50, predictable predictable predictable predictable predictable gain. An infinitely better trader than me, Fous, nailed it again. (I’m not only an affiliate, I’m even considering signing up for his stock picking service!) As did some of my DVD students…those who can’t do, teach!

ncen

SOLF—nice multi-day breakout, but where to now? Solid resistance in the high $15s

solf


AKNS—just keeps going, aka why you don’t short strong stocks UNTIL there’s weakness

akns

YGE—strong multi-day breakout, don’t even think about shorting

yge

TSL—strong, but lots of resistance coming up, still, don’t even think about shorting

tsl

CSIQ, ASTI upcoming

Watching NTWK HYTM EPEX for more gains before I short

EXFO you don’t short cuz of meaningful news, in the form of strong earnings

Last but certainly least—legitimacy-wise—3 days ago, I posted HYBR was getting spammed big-time, 43% drop since, too bad no shares available to short!

hybr2

Posted in AOL, Breakouts, Fess Up Time, Manipulation, Patterns To Buy, Potential Plays

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  • timsykes

    Tony Ellis, I’ll live vicariously through you, tell me you loaded up on NCEN and made 10x the DVD cost!

  • Gary

    What is your guys plays today? I am looking at COT to take a fall today. aAready 10 min into the day and almost no volume! Might be the day it will run down.

    This i would call the pump…maybe the dump is coming.

    What do you think tim?

  • timsykes

    i see no great setups, COT could tank, but only if it cracks under $3.25 first, which it held extraordinarily well

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    I’ve been short COT since yesterday morning @ 3.48

    I thought about taking my losses, but the failed breakout to new highs yesterday afternoon has kept me in.

    however, I don’t like the level 2 action at all, neither today nor yesterday

  • Gary

    Max….While this pig is dumping down. Could you let me know what you are looking at in the level 2 that you don’t like. Just trying to learn. Thanks.

    Tim..please feel free to jump in. Reading level two charts should be a post.

  • Tony Ellis

    10K @ 3.35 out half 2.96 -2.98 holding rest for a possible run over 3

  • Vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    TIM, You said don’t hink of shorting TSL. But looks like many are shorting already pushing the stock down.. ?!

  • Tony Ellis

    2.35 sorry, also bought DSTI @ 3.35

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    I just don’t like how both the sellers and buyers of this stock are very flighty, and there tends to be more support just below the bid than there is resistance above the ask – although it looks like all heavy buyers under 3.51 from this morning have left the building

    seems like lots of fake bids, with the occasional seller trying to sneak in

    buyers quickly jump out of the woodwork at new lows also

  • Tony Ellis

    What do you think of HOKU?

  • Gary

    That help a liitle… Thanks Max

  • http://investorslive.com InvestorsLive.com

    AKNS going to be a good short Tim! Nice chart

    Thanks

  • Vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    TIM, is it time to jump to TSL. Looks like its hititng hard on the resistance..

  • http://investorslive.com InvestorsLive.com

    Tony- Nice chart on HOKU, always seems to play real nice it’s on my radar for a break of 9. Extremely low volume though compared to the days where it has big moves

  • http://investorslive.com InvestorsLive.com

    Tony – nice pay day on NCEN – great job

  • timsykes

    no don’t short random ass patterns like HOKU

    TSL, who cares about this little dip, chart doesnt support much downside theory

  • Vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    Tony, Are you in on DSTI?! It looks like a nice uptrend chart.

  • Vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    TIM, I was watching CSIQ since it gone low to $16. Couldn’t get in at that time for long?! It broke the resistance and moving up.. Next resistance seems to be $28 or so. Do you think it will go that far?!

  • http://investorslive.com InvestorsLive.com

    Tim any thoughts on VRTX? Would you like to see another spike out of it, or just stay away? Its up 100% in the past week or 2 but very well could consolidate and spike again

  • Tony Ellis

    DSTI still holding….HOKU wasn’t interested in shorting. Possible long if breaks 9 on strong volume.

  • timsykes

    hoku, vrtx, asti, grmn, csco, good, rimm, all too random for me, no pumps, no pure breakouts, avoid them all unless u NCEN-type breakouts or REED-like pops

  • lmsmith

    I am still holding my orignal SHORT of 500 shares at $8, added 500 shares more at $8.50 now this pos will take a dive….

  • newTrader

    Is anyone long on CDS? Looks like a strong climb.

  • Vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    CDS, looks poised for nice up movement.. but not real good volume or movement.

  • traderjunkie

    TIM, Here comes COT, to your level

  • Tony Ellis

    out DSTI 3.8

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    … and the buyers pop out of the woodwork again

  • Gary

    Max…I think they will get taken out again. But I see what you mean.

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    … and are gone again – will they ever decide what price is low enough to buy at? :)

  • http://jcutz5000@aol.com The Barber

    ASTI SPUMANTI BIG BOY!!! SAY GOODBYE ANYDAY NOW!!! PROBABLY TODAY INTO TOMORROW…HA HA HA .. WAITING PATIENTLY..LOL

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    out COT @ 3.35 – no idea what’s going to happen now, although the longer term trend is down

  • Gary

    Max…what!!! This thing is droping! You now where the buyer that came out of the wood work!

    Nice job on leaving money on the table. What was your profit?

  • Gary

    Looks like 3.30 is the price to break for COT!

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    I am trading a very small account somewhat conservatively – I was short 300 shares @ 3.48 so I made $39 profit (which was greater than my R value of around $30 for this trade)

    granted, I could have squeezed a few extra dollars out, but that sort of thinking gets me in trouble

    as Tim is saying, 3.25 is a very important price point

    I prefer remaining safe and re-entering if warranted on this one

    I’m okay with being wrong on this one – I’ll take the peace of mind realized profits gives me

    also, the trade I was making, the REAL price point to be short at was 3.55-3.58 – I missed this by a good margin

  • Gary

    Very nice at sticking you your game plan!!! TWO BIG THUMBS UP!

  • http://www.maxopedia.org Max

    anyone else watching BPAX? the resistance it faces at $4.50 (still off its recent high today of 4.56) is tempting to short into, but it has been in an uptrend since its $4 low on monday

    I really want to short it, but it would almost make more sense to go long on a pullback or breakout (seems like limited downside at this point)

    any thoughts?

  • KFisher

    Max,
    I was rather tempted to buy BPAX bitch today around 4.22, but the bitch left w/o me. It might go above $5, just my pure guess.

  • vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    BPAX has a 200 MA crossing right at 4.84, a big resistance..

  • Andrew

    That huge volume up day after the stock already jumped from 2-4 looks like the last of the longs piling in. Until today it looked like it was breaking down. But, now it looks like its consolidating. If it does breakout its got a lot of downward pressure till 6. I’m waiting for another big move in any direction before I make a move. Hard to tell if a pull back is really a pullback or the stock breaking down. Anyone else?

  • Intelinside

    The way BPAX acting lately, it might cross that 200 DMA in a heartbeat and closes above $5.

  • Andrew

    And who the hell is keeping RC Cola and Diet Rite above 3.25-3.30?

  • vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    I see the BPAX ADX and all looks uptrend.. May it is poised set to go up above $5. who is jumping in ?! I might..

  • Tony Ellis

    Anyone in MELA?

  • Andrew

    Nice find

  • vijai – moneyreallymatters.com

    thats is a nice uptrend stock.. but just the volume is not too much for me..

  • Danny

    Nice chart on BPAX but the buyers are not there.

  • Gary

    have we talked about YTBLA here yet? Take a look!

  • Andrew

    Tim, I know that your strategy is mainly based on shorts that are rarely held onto for a few days. I am just curious as to why, after looking at the terrible 1st quarter of the overall market, you would not hold onto some of these stock (short position) for more than a few days. The returns you could be experienced would be far greater than what you have experienced. Please do not take this the wrong way because I think you are a great trader, but why not sit on some of these stocks for a longer time? And I know you will say something about unpredictability, but it wasn’t a secret that we were or either in or near a recession.

  • timsykes

    cuz i dont have the capital to sit around and wait, new opportunities every few days, cant risk being stuck in some other position. and recession–stop listening to the crap that is the financial media, there are time lags involved–unpredictable ones–it could already be priced in…dont play market guessing games, it’s impossible to have much edge, let $3b macro funds play that game

  • lmsmith

    @ Andrew, that is a good question….I was going to ask the same thing- I made a kiling last month, and for the first couple of days longing several stocks…… but I think TIM does not want to divert from his strategy and only want to reach his 1mil mark with his strategy….

  • bill

    -$745.

  • Donald Allen

    lost $200

  • Jon_Reed

    No short sell this bitch like you should have…

    Or step away from your computer for 24 hours, recollect your thoughts and quit trading out of desperation.

  • Jon_Reed

    Now*

  • http://www.reapertrades.com Reaper

    +$898.56 on OPXA

  • avoigt_2000

    bought 700 IMMU @ 6.27

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    No Jon, I’m not gonna short a stock that refuses to crack below support…learn my strategy before wasting my time with your dribble, seriously…congrats reaper, howd u do it?

  • preston

    - 150 on OPXA, wanted to sell earlier but didn’t want to be a puss.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    preston, being a puss is okay, little losses really dont hurt, gotta protect against big ones

  • http://www.reapertrades.com Reaper

    I used magic! Or wait until my trade recap comes out on my blog today … it will be good … I’ll rip myself a new one for some huge mistakes I made today.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    cant be as many as the mistakes i’ve made recently

  • Webster

    Tim is right on this stock the problem is it is stuck in a range and who knows which way it will go. I have consistently short at 4.2 and covered under 4.1 but will get hurt if it spikes.

  • scrillawill

    what the fuck tim you said 3.90

  • BULL

    Have you seen the one year chart for this stock? It has the tendency to do this (looks like a pendant or a banner)?!

  • bill

    I only saw Tim applies the stop with his shorts… basically he’ll quit whenever he doesn’t like it (either from Level 2, or price action…)

    Now I have to force myself to trade like Reaper to scalp TimAlert…

  • BULL

    I guess resistance @ $4.05 now?

  • Jon_Reed

    Tim, I have watched your DVD’s. That’s why I say you aren’t consistant. Especially when you say (in your seminar for “TimRaw” disk 3 I believe) supports or resistance levels typically fall around the whole dollar point (in this case..$4.00). You buy when a stock breaks the resistance or you short when the stock drops below support.

    You philosophy is easy:

    You look to short stocks that have substantial increases the day or two prior. You research that increase and look for information through numerous websites. I am thinking about buying Tim Fundamentals but held off because I think I have a good grasp of where you look and what you look for. I have now developed a daily routine of finding my own stocks and doing the research and then bounce them off of your daily report to see how close I am or look to see where I went wrong. You have mentioned a trillion times that your entry and exit points are off most of the time or that you consider yourself a baby and run away at the first signs of profit.

    You don’t short into three things:

    1. Positive earnings
    2. Merge talk or rumors
    3. Positive SEC reports that you would assume have to be LEGIT.

    You try to find the stocks that are completely manipulated and capitalize on the fall once that stock spikes (IE: GBVP). You do this because it’s much more predictable then trying to long stocks and “hope” they have some miracle breakthrough. You realize that 99% of the press releases are nothing but “fluff” and you tend to focus on stocks that have the bigger manipulation due to this “fluff” (Again…GBVP).

    In this case, you bought OPXA for no reason other then “hope” of a breakout from a SEC report. You held the stock for 45 minutes once you realized the timing was wrong OR that this SEC report didn’t produce the results you expected or was looking for. However, ****what I don’t understand from you is this SEC report was filed on 11 Sep and today is the 16th.**** Obviously the results weren’t there and one reason why I shorted. Yet…you buy?

    Like I said Tim…I have watched some of your DVD’s and learned tremendously from you. I give you ALL the credit of what I know. Trust me, when I was first starting off on my own and didn’t realize what shorting was; I made plenty of long buys that I’m still stuck with today because they have done nothing but dropped due to the manipulation that I didn’t know about (being a novice). I assumed everything had to be “accurate” and “true.” Boy…was I a fool.

    I only have about $3K that I can play with. But remember a few days ago? I said that this is totally “play” money and if I lose it…no big deal. So my positions are no where near as big as yours. However, I do have excitment EVERYDAY because I look forward to earning a few dollars “on the side” (Im in the Air Force) in hopes of turning that $3K into “big money” (whatever that may be).

    So yes…I realize that I am NO ONE to you, but I am a student that watches your moves like a hawk trying to leech/absorb as much of your mentality as possible. And when I see you do something that is different then what you preach…I get on you in hopes of trying to understand better of where you are coming from in your decision.

    Again…thanks for your knowledge…

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Haha, nice tease Reaper!! Thousands die in horrific car crash,,,, News at 11!!! :)

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    scrillawill, i put targets on the stock doesnt mean i’ll stick around for them, when its not acting right i get out

  • jchahboune

    tim, i tried to write the following on the previous post before you covered, but had issues with your website:

    tim, i hope you eventially nail this just for piece of mind.

    this still stands.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    Correct Jon reed, dollar levels are important support/resistance and if u learn what i’m talking about OPXA has managed to bottom at $4, meaning its a potential buy not short

    As for the SEC report being a catalyst, its the talking of the thing that matters, thats why i scan message boards so much, i’m sorry u havent realized that message boards are great indicators of people’s perceptions.

    i guess i have to be more specific in my writing, but that’s not gonna happen since i’m always rushed for time so u better just study my dvds more…try to stay as consistent as i can but if u learn another lesson from those dvds, u know i’m not perfect, not even close to being perfectly disciplined

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    yah sites gonna have problems for 2 more weeks, its the old wordpress thats the problem, sorry, new site we’re working on every day

  • http://www.reapertrades.com Reaper

    Are you moving to Drupal or something else more sophisticated than WordPress, Tim?

  • preston

    Thanks Tim, I started to put in a market order when it stuck at 4.24 but hesitated, my entry was 4.219 or so, oh well. When my phone buzzed I hit the sell button, I knew it was you. Not at all mad about that loss, made a little over +600 yesterday and +275 today on LXRX, enough to pay for your Vegas webinar.

  • Geo2888

    TIM, -855 loss on OPXA…..

  • Geo2888

    TIM, is GVBP a potential short now? shares are available at IB

  • http://www.galaday.com daze629

    -$495 OPXA :/

  • http://www.reapertrades.com Reaper

    Dude Preston you really should come to Vegas at least for the first day of the seminar and just do Monday as the webinar.

  • BearNine

    Really butchered my entry on gvbp .42 cents? come on, I must be losing my marbles, it made sense in my head at the time, the scc is closing in and i better get all my shorts in as soon as possible- not really – just another morning tank chart pattern, anyway positive on my gvbp position and will cover tomorrow after a morning tank or afternoon fade.

    Bought TVL on the breakout up 100$ already – i think you should put out some more information on buying breakouts, sharpen the buy strategy!

  • Geo2888

    TIM, is GVBP a potential buy before market close and sell it at market open assuming after hours PR. and a potential short right after the spike at the open?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    No Geo, this pump has turned into a dump, doubtful any PR will spike the stock, i’m looking to find shares to short

  • Josh T.H.

    Got taken to the woodshed on OPXA -1,200.
    F

  • Geo2888

    OPXA about to crack 4.00

  • Jon_Reed

    Yeah…and if we could have the market drop 100+ points…it would help…

  • BearNine

    OPXA is ALWAYS about to crack 4 dollars.

  • joethemoe

    opxa is no fun to play anymore

  • oqsoundo

    I agree with you Jon Reed. That’s why I stay away from the alerts and try to do the opposite if the charts look right. I do this all the time since there’s always going to be a time delay from Tim executing a trade and writing it up and then send it to us.

    OPXA was forming a double top… den it turned out to be a triple top… plus it is choppy as hell…like Tim said in his dvds…stay away from choppy charts. And so I did on this one.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Covered $AMIE +42 bucks!! whoo hoo, thought yesterday morning was the big dump and it never taanked.

    $DSCO REALLY do not want to hold overnight but I like that its hanging under $1.

    Fuck it, $OPXA has been good to me lately, went long after it refused to stay under $4. See if I can get another morning spike.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Oh cripes OPXA’s chart is such a fucking mess, what am I thinking, and didnt I say the same thing a couple days ago… nice I’m a jackass…

  • Jon_Reed

    Hey don’t feel bad…according to NObama…so is Kanye West. Hehe!

    Actually, the market has been in a hugh uptrend the last few days (if not week). If we could get one bad down day and get the sellers in a frenzy, I think OPXA could drop a significant amount.

    Geesh…I’ve held through 4 spikes, a Tim Buy, and a lack of proper price action…

    …C’mon Trading Gods…Give me some type of reward for being “faithful!!!”

    LOL!!!

  • tryp

    I learned my lesson the last 2 times…. I stayed away from OPXA today and its my first non negative day since OPXA and GVBP shorts… I consider this a huge win…. +0

  • braderhart

    + 800.00 on FNET short today, but I just got an email from sogotrade that my account has been restricted to “closing transactions only.” I guess I violated the free riding rule. What pisses me off is the fact that I didn’t receive any advanced warning that I was in danger of violating the rule. Hopefully this isn’t a 90 day suspension like the PDT rule that I take great care to avoid violating. Fuck!

  • Geo2888

    GVBP another after hours PR out..

  • TheChatter

    Braderhart, those 90 day things are well annoying, am going to get another broker in that time!

  • dannb

    braderhart, it happened to me too. You dont get any warning. at sogo they expect us to keep track of our own trades, but they let you get away with 3 entries and 3 exits in the 5 days, same as tos. If you contact SOGO theyll have you sign a form regarding the pdtr, then they will unlock your acc.

  • TerranFirebat

    wow you guys must have huge accounts.. I have about 14K of my own capital and my $500 OPXA loss is making me very humble and gunshy.

  • Geo2888

    GVBP yahoo message boards going crazy

  • braderhart

    Thanks dannb, I did speak to them and I will sign the “get out of jail free card” tomorrow morning. It was my fault, I failed to add a trade to my trade log. So my PDT tracker was off. That’s the last time I do that. One thing I do have to say about sogo is that their customer service is awesome. I’m +1400ish on the week, so I think I’m going to take a break until Monday to clean my PDT slate. I can’t wait to have more than 25k in the acct. Thanks for the gains this week Tim. Buy the DVDs, they work!