How My Latest TIMalert On 4imprint Group plc (FOUR) Was Just Wrong
Posted by timothysykes on Tue 19th of Aug, 2008 12:06:50 PM
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It always hurts when you’re wrong, but in trading, even in PennyStocking , you gotta come to grips with it. If you don’t, you’re not gonna succeed. Trust me, I know. I’ve had too many streaks of perfection and over time they start to screw you up in the head.
Like my latest streak where I was basically 21 for 21 on my TIMAlerts.
And even though the probable fraud FOUR jumped 10% over my entry price/TIMalert at $2.80ish, I was pretty much dead wrong when I sent out this alert explaining why I bought this stock (yes, I have and will continue buying probable frauds…when I think there’s upside…frauds can run up faster than real companies…just gotta be more careful in these situations):
FOUR was trading at $9 when big ole Citron Research wrote up THIS post that poked a lot of holes in FOUR’s story…today FOUR responds with a letter to the SEC, an appointment of a former FBI guy as senior VP of blah blah and announce a strategic alliance that will supposedly bring in $40 mil in revenue in 2008-2009…who to believe? my guess is citron is right, FOUR is a sketchy sketchy company, but FOUR also has 400k shares shorted, up from 40k last month…methinks its Citron and his boys so if they really think this is a fraud, they’re gonna try to ride it to 0….considering the stock has tanked so much, and FOUR looks like they’re going to defend their “whatever it is that they’re actually running”, we got a possible short squeeze here…maybe back to $4? $5? who knows, who cares, kinda like sketchy BIDZ bounced after their first big drop….hell even CNEX bounced from the $2s to the $4s after their first big drop…before the eventual gradual fade into oblivion, which I’m guessing will happen to FOUR too
It’s even riskier to hold overnight here as the SEC could get involved, halting this thing at any time, but as u know i like risk, because i understand it, and the odds favor a short squeeze here, so i took a 1/2 position, only $5k worth, buying in right when it just broke the intraday high of $270-$2.75…got some anticipating the break, averaged up at $2.85…my goal really is to get out in the low $4s, if not the high $3s, just gotta play it by its price action….as always
Yes, it was good to wait to buy after the intraday breakout as that’s when bigtime moves to the upside often begin, and it got up to $3.15ish, but the shorts — probly Citron adding to his position — just pounded buyers into the ground and within an hour, I’d sold out for a $350ish loss in the $2.65-$2.70 range.
As usual, I proved my incompetence with buying — especially choosing such a crushed one like this (when I do buy, I prefer true breakouts with no biter shareholders) — but I did do one thing right, took my losses quickly.
Cuz now, just 1 day later, the stock is about $1 lower at $1.75, which just proves when you’re wrong, you gotta exit ASAP…cuz these stocks can really reverse…maybe even be aggressive and flip a position from a long to a short. Price action matters most, not the little thoughts we have in our little brains.
As you can guess there are no testimonials for this alert, most people lost a few hundred bucks…thank god I wrote “risky, risky, risky, risky” cuz that’s what this trade was. Unlike today’s 30% fully predictable drop in equally-sketchy POGS– which I missed even though I had shares reserved — which was simple as pie. Glad more than a couple TIMalert subscribers got in on that one as I highlighted in my morning watchlist and all the shares to short were gone before the market open, leaving non-paying peeps in the dust.
PS All you people too scared of what will happen when you admit you were wrong, guess what, nothing happens! Actuslly there’s been more TIMalert signups a. cuz my 21 for 21 streak is finally sinking in to people and b.) me taking a loss proves I’m not a BS artist who’s gonna claim to be perfect/right every time. Funny/sad how abused everyone in this joke of an industry is, all it takes is a little honesty people…
Now you can Twitter any questions/comments to TIMhelp and obviously you can follow TIM on twitter too!
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TIM Alerts
View All| Date | Stock | Position | Ideal Exit | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | KVHI | Short | $3.70 | 18% |
| Nov 20 | STSX | Short | $3.10 | 11% |
| Nov 18 | PERY | Short | $3.75 | 25% |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | Short | $2.80 | 5% |
| Nov 6 | CVI | Short | $4 | 15% |
| Nov 5 | MECA | Short | $1.95 | 51% |
| Nov 4 | CVI | Short | $4.81 | 4% |
| Nov 3 | NAK | Short | $3.20 | 5% |
| Oct 29 | EVC | Short | $2 | 26% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $6.80 | 7% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $5.75 | 4% |
November: 9 alerts, 15% avg gain
October: 11 alerts, 14% avg gain
“probable fraud” … LOL
This company is more spurious than anything I’ve ever seen. They are just a website and a Rockefeller center address…nothing more. The probablity of their fraudulency is 99% or greater.
Wow, big blocks covering now but the price ain’t getting above 1.70…lame.
I lost over $700 on this mofo… i wrote about it… if you’re interested… www.bottomfeedermillionaire.blogspot.com
Today I lost another $450… my confidence is shot… but it will come back… I’m a survivor.
ironically, I’m still ahead… chin up noob, you will live to fight another day!
Omgz, Today i all a sudden shot up to #2 on covestor.
Yesterday I wasn’t even on the rankings.
http://www.covestor.com/rankin.....selector=1
-JohnCA
its going above $1.70 slow and steady, this could see $2+ by end of day, no I wouldn’t hold it forever but this is definately a bounce in progress
I’m still in this piece of junk. Tim, I know you said yesterday don’t trade if you can’t day trade..so what am I to do? A while back through AMTD, I went over my daytrade limits in one week, so now am stuck to no daytrades until I am over 25k. I have been there and blew it back under several times. When I talked to amtd about it they said that even if I transfer my account, I am labled as a pattern day trader by my ss#..don’t know if that is true or not, so can not day trade. How am I to make any trades if that is the case and you say not to if have to hold overnight.
LOL amtd is full of shit, u can transfer accounts and you’re clean…u should probly sue em for giving u faulty info and causing further losses
those f’ers! I’ll have to change. Well, I’m going to sit it out in FOUR for now and hope for the best. It has leveled off for the day and trending up a bit.
Dave, what was your entry price?
2.85 for 2k shares. brutal. big loss for now..unsure what i want to do with it.
I’m out 1.60…careful Dave..”I’m goin to sit it out and hope for the best”…isn’t that the thinking that got you where you are now with FOUR
Tim - do you expect any upside trending on APII tomorrow or Thursday? I have no experience with this stock.
Paid almost half of my tuition with the short today and my mom is proud as punch. She gave me her credit card number and TOLD me to subscribe to Timalerts. Thirty US coming your way Sir Shortsalot.
Looks like about 300K or more shares were covered during the lunch hour and price barely moved up…MMs had plenty of shares to sell
screw that eric, i expect annual membership form u! no idea about APIKI, doesnt fit my pattern anymore
Relax Sir Shortsalot- I just payed half of my tuition. This was a congratulations from my mom. If all goes well I’ll subscribe for life.
Shit. I should have just sent the Hickory Farms basket.
Tim..what would you do with four now if was holding? I know..shouldn’t be holding, but i’m in it with a huge loss.
APII about to take $2 again, stop losses fest, come on kids give me a hand
Dave, sold that unpredictable mess and use whatever you have left and use it in a PREDICTABLE trade (more predictable I mean, nothing is for sure in this life)
I meant SELL that unpredictable messs
I’m still holding 1K also shorty. Bought back 1K this AM too early around 2.45. I won’t completely cover for a while though. Wait til below 1.50.
Tim, you have me confused. In your headline you say you were wrong on 4imprint (FOUR). I looked 4imprint up and it is traded on the London Stock Exchange (FOUR.L). The links in your message are talking about 4C Controls (OTC:FOUR).
Which one are you referring to?
Confused, a hint for you, Tim has never traded a foreign stock
i just linked to google finnace, i dont even look at company name LOL…american one for sure
HAHA I just went to the apii message boards and some guy tried to call tim out about calling IEHC crap. Yesterday when he posted the stock jumped to 6.96 intraday high with a close at ~$5.4. Today its down to $3.70. Laughed my ass off to see that guy have to eat his words. I didn
Thats embarrasing Tim, same happened to me, was showing a friend the action on a pump and dump stock and he asked what the company does. I had to tell him “i don’t know, but it made me $ 400″
Hey Marc….UVSE=cha ching
STAA, can’t see any support until 4.69
new post:
http://www.timothysykes.com/ti.....-to-japan/
SamuraiRat,
You hit the 2-month point on Covestor that’s why you suddenly appeared. They might make you disappear off the rankings again though for a longer time, as they have done that to others.
FOUR is $4.05 as of 8/22/08. Tim you should’ve held it!