Why I’ll Never Buy Stocks That Are Breaking Down, No Matter How Much Kool-Aid Is Involved
Posted by timothysykes on Sun 6th of Jul, 2008 04:23:37 PM
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No matter that oil continues hitting its highs, nearly all of the recently hot energy stocks–from the strung-out junkie-like wannabe real alternative energy plays like Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST), Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies (QTWW) and A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (APWR) to piece of crap AMEX plays like Fieldpoint Petroleum Corporation (FPP) and Pyramid Oil Company (PDO)–have faded quite nicely over the past few days. People are scratching their heads and thinking, oil is high, these stocks should rebound, right?
Unfortunately, this gutter of a niche with the worst companies in the world, isn’t that simple. I’m not bashing–I have no positions in any of these stocks–it’s just the reality, these companies will fail and/or their stocks will return to pre-exponential rise prices over the next few months and years. Maybe one or two will stabilize, but that’s pushing it. All their little earnings reports that show such strong growth and profits, ALL of them can and have been manipulated to appear great. Creative accounting, works like a charm, stings investors like a bee.
And that’s why these stocks can drop 20-30% in a day or week without rebounding–because there’s literally no big money behind them, just the illusion of big money, crafted by hedge fund traders and message board posters to prop up, nay, pump up, these carcasses of companies. Sucking in the stupid little guys who are too soft/new to realize how corruption and manipulation tag team to create all kinds of illusions, often times perfectly uptrending charts…before they go splat.
If more of you had my instructional DVD PennyStocking, you’d know this, but as it is, many of you actually believe in these companies–and their technology, potential, blah blah Kool-Aid BS–so you’ll probly end up going down with the ship. And that’s just sad.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a master trader, by any means (I mean seriously click and see some of my trades HERE), these stocks could very well come back, but over the years, I’ve seen too much crap rise and fall and never be heard from again, so methinks, nay, meknows, the odds are hugely against them. Especially since this latest drop eans they’re all failed breakouts…so I’d stake my 70% return over the past few months on that!
I’ll continue ignoring these fades, only getting interested at any spikes as they are potential shorting opportunities, made great by those nervous nellies who bought in at the top and refused to take profits or small losses and are now sitting on some pretty hefty losses, which they’re still unwilling to take, making them think about it all the damn time, ruining their lives aka setting them up as perfect sellers on any spike, allowing for high percentage shorts.
After all, I have learned some simple rules that prevent me from entering into non-high percentage/non-ideal plays…like buying this crap in the hopes of a rebound….and blogging has really helped me stick to them. I pray for you brave souls who are willing to buy stocks 20-50% off their highs, but still up 200-500% off their lows…that’s some damn risky low percentage stuff, I don’t care how high oil goes!
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TIM Alerts
View All| Date | Stock | Position | Ideal Exit | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24 | KVHI | Short | $3.70 | 18% |
| Nov 20 | STSX | Short | $3.10 | 11% |
| Nov 18 | PERY | Short | $3.75 | 25% |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | Short | $2.80 | 5% |
| Nov 6 | CVI | Short | $4 | 15% |
| Nov 5 | MECA | Short | $1.95 | 51% |
| Nov 4 | CVI | Short | $4.81 | 4% |
| Nov 3 | NAK | Short | $3.20 | 5% |
| Oct 29 | EVC | Short | $2 | 26% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $6.80 | 7% |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | Short | $5.75 | 4% |
November: 9 alerts, 15% avg gain
October: 11 alerts, 14% avg gain
do you know your site is refreshing every minute and taken us back to your homepage? it has been doing that since 9 pm last night.
That refresh is crazy. It backed me up off the page!
Yes, this page is taking me back to the main page every minute. A serious overhaul is required.
trying out diff scripts, lots of people want refreshing homepage, just gotta fine tune, weekends are good for that
I dont own any of those stocks anymore but I tend to agree PDO and MXC are done because they got so overvalued it was insane. They are legitimate small oil/gas producers but should find a range that gives them a mroe reasonable valuation. Maybe there is a short squeeze left in them who knows.
APWR, (i dont own this anymore either) but the only catalys I can see here is if they successfully start the wind turbine production and update the letter of intents to real contracts
just my 2 cents….great Post Tim
i can not believe anyone would sit on these stocks and not just trade them for profits. hard to think someone is believing in these stocks as investments.
Got a direct mail piece on TNRO on Saturday in my snail-mail box.
Says they are spending $3.1 million on the paid promotion.
test
am i in some twilight zone version of the site. nobody has made a post since last night? I see nothing new on the site since yesterday?
tim is probably getting his opening statement ready after he takes care of TimAlerts.
watchlist:
http://www.timothysykes.com/ti.....%99d-like/
yes BTB, summer doldrums, athough th new TIMalerts members only website will also launch tomorrow to keep all the riff raff out
CPST is not a strung-out junkie stock.Capstone turbines
run on several different kinds of fuels.Capstone turbine
technology is patented.Capstone turbines power hybrid buses. You may have noticed the large backlog of unfulfilled orders that Capstone has.This company is capable of making a great deal of money.
I know for certain that Capstone will prevail.Please
visit the Capstone website.
Dan, stop drinking the kool-aid…i dont give a shit if CPST was selling everlasting life, they’d still be a dog with fleas…and i’m not gonna waste my precious time trying to find those fleas…there is a reason why its so easy it drops 30% in 2-3 days and takes 2-3 months to go up that much…u use your brain not your greed and just think for a second
Tim can you explain to me why you think (apwr) will go down, anything specific? simply stating it will go down doesnt really help
i have no idea what APWR is gonna do, its not my kind of pattern…learn y patterns and u’ll see that
Thank you for the post, what are y patterns?
sorry meant to say my patterns, all detailed in my DVD
Man, I’m amazed I missed this post — just reading it now.
Good info to keep everyone constantly questioning why your money is where it is.
I’ve made so much milking everyone else’s belief in APWR, I have come to believe it myself.
Tim’s numbers say he is right a zillion times more than the Kool-Aid peddlers, as hard as that is to accept.