3 Successful Safe Trades: A Breakout Buy, Ambitious Short & A Live Trade On Video!

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• Breakdowns
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• Good Trades
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• LiveStock
• Short Selling

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My last 3 trades have been a testament to my philosophy that traders with small accounts should trade scared—traded as if you were a cracked out broker doing lines off your mistress in the downtown Goldman Sachs building when you hear a knock at the door accompanied by a voice that says “Police, open up!” Because that way you never overstay your welcome in a trade. Yes, you’re probly gonna exit early, but exiting early is safe aka infinitely better than risking exiting late.

First up, as I detailed in THIS post, there were several low priced oil stocks breaking out that I was thinking of buying, my top two choices being Tengasco, Inc. (TGC) and Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ADR) (SSN) as they were the lowest priced… SSN was just a spiker, not a true breakout (so even though it eventually fell the hardest, it was actually a great buy, think $4 to $6, or 50% overnight…ah hindsight), so I went with TGC, buying 3,000 shares at $1.69 (on an intraday dip around 2pm even as other oils were breaking out strongly) and when it broke the day high of $1.75 less than an hour later, I got pretty excited as to how high it could go since there was no resistance anywhere…

But taking trading scared to the next level, I sold out at $1.78 for a $250ish gain, not because the breakout was failing (on the contrary, ‘twas perfect) but cuz there were lots of big sellers orders all around just above…I am a wussie…as the stock was only up 20% on a perfect breakout…closing nicely higher at $1.85…opening strongly in the $1.90s on its way to $2.09, a nice 23% one day move for TIMalert subscribers and I rejoiced at several emails I got from those who also got in anywhere from $1.70 to $1.75 and exited better than me (as you should know by now is not hard to do) in the $2 range! (although PennyStocking student Tony Ellis discovered what it’s like to be last on the exit in THIS post…still profited aka why PennyStocking is gorgeous)

Then, as I detailed in THIS post, I shorted 2,000 of probable fraud HYHY into its first negative day, a big reversal day on which I also was long/profited in the morning…traders can flip like that. In that post, I talk about how I was going for a big morning panic and while the stock opened up like 3-5 cents/share, the buyers were scared so it looked like I might get a big dump to the $2 mark…maybe even under.

But, buyers held firm in the low $2.20s—not coincidentally the low from the day before—so I played it safe and covered within 15 minutes of the market open at $2.28, a hugely disappointing 3 cent/share gain…gotta be extra-careful with these spammer stocks—as I’ve been posting, they’ve been dumping quickly as usual, but there’s been little to no follow-through panic, just bounces. And this time was no different as the stock moved steadily higher to the $2.60 range, making my exit look rather perfect.

Later, I got some emails from TIMalert subscribers who were steadfast in holding, I dunno about that, I like taking my losses quickly that way I NEVER risk big losses, but that premium subscription service is just about what I do, not what you should do as I don’t know you.

And after only 11 hours of trade-free footage, I finally did a live trade on LiveStock, which you can view HERE, by clicking the on demand button for the June 20th, 2008 episode. Long story short right as the show began Pinnacle Gas Resources, Inc. (PINN), a recent oil runner—the only that managed to stay afloat even as other tanks…mostly the result of message board hype (people who buy based on message boards aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed), had just turned slightly negative on the day, down 5 cents/share, a great short sell signal, and when you look at the video, you’ll see the chart and how much downside there was.

So I shorted 1,500 at $3.44, explained it, was dead right about longs getting scared/stop losses getting taking out, covered at $3.31 just to make an easy $175 on camera and so the entire show wouldn’t just be me watching this stock and then got pissed as while we were showing a clip from Boiler Room, the stock tanked all the way down to $3.10, a near 10% drop, all within thirty minutes.

Beautiful beautiful call, lots of TIMalert subscribers and LiveStock watchers profited…stock came back and finished near unchanged…some stupid people held their shorts—guess I gotta do a better job of explaining that some trades are just good for afternoon fades/morning plunges, once that’s over, it’s back to the hype/random price action crap I detest…guess their probable losses will do a better job than I could ever do at teaching them to trade scared.

Now up over 10% on the month, 58% since TIM inception back in November 2007…waaaaaay better than the markets, jew yahhhhhhhhhhh!

Now you can Twitter any questions/comments to TIMhelp and obviously you can follow TIM on twitter too!

14 Responses

1. 

   1

   SamuraiRat - June 22nd, 2008 at 8:07 pm

   So are you gonna keep doing those live trades on LiveStock? Its cool to watch.

2. 

   2

   UFgemini - June 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 pm

   A got a little coal play for you guys. Ticker symbol is QMNM.OB up 160% in 1 day. It’s a tiny stock but jackpot potential. Damn I love this game.

3. 

   3

   cash - June 22nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm

   Tim you seemed like you took this past weeks livestock alot more serious is that a correct assumtions? You were so pumped making that live trade.

4. 

   4

   Mike_13th - June 22nd, 2008 at 10:06 pm

   some I’m watching:
   SDTH…look at the chart.looks ripe for a fall soon

   HYGS .. want it to breakdown thru 1

   GTXO ..hear it’s getting promo’ed again.chart looks if goes red could be nice short.

   PLUG ..not the most exciting stock but looks like a decent swing short on red.

   NYNY ..last time this fell thru 3 it hit 2.36 the same day.opened at 3.16 that day.close price Fri was hmmmmmm 3.16

   SSBX .. bank stock that has very good dayrange.if banks fall monday this could get wiped good.low float so check the spread.

   SSN ..continues to be a great long/short daytrader.

   ROIAK .. great dayrange.it tried to hold above 1.65 2 months ago,didn’t make it then.sitting at 1.62 at close Fri

   PGOG .. alerted here last Sunday said this..”PGOG- a mention by Beacon research,that ain

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   5

   cash - June 22nd, 2008 at 10:59 pm

   Mike great short on Friday afternoon of MRGE looks like you will be able to cover at the open and make at least 16% or so profit.

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   6

   traknologist - June 23rd, 2008 at 9:04 am

   I’m watching IBAS today.

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