A Short Seller’s Dozen: What Stocks Get Pumped, Must Come Down, Usually
VRML Short 1,300 @$3.75
LGDI
SUNV
Getting up bright and early, I reserved shares in all three of these stocks to possibly short today, not knowing which I’d actually short. LGDI didn’t even trade for 5 minutes and when it did, it moved slower than an under-cooked lobster. SUNV didn’t breach the key $1.20 level until the afternoon (when I had no trades left), so it was all about VRML.
I wanted to short into strength cuz it was a classic short covering rally from yesterday’s $1.75 pullback off the highs…given the magnitude of the declines and that it’s still up 300+% in a few days—on an ill-researched story thinking this near bankrupt company will do anything but go under—meant short sellers would be aggressive. Afraid I’d miss the probable pullback, I jumped the gun too early, shorting 1,300 shares at $3.75…as I watched it hang around $3.90 x $4 for another 30 min, I wasn’t very worried as the big buyer blocks were only on the bids—the wall of sellers at $4 never in danger of cracking—a clear sign of pumpers trying to scare up buyers/short covering…inevitably, the volume faded, the bids disappeared and the stock spent the day chomping gradually away at its early gains, few buy orders at the ask. I’d call it a perfect crack of sideways price action in the $3.60 range, but it still managed to finish up on the day, so it’ not totally perfect…just yet.
Despite my poor timing, I’ve got a nice $380 profit so far, I let it ride overnight cuz I think it goes under or around $3 today or tomorrow, possible big stop loss panic if it take out $3, might get to cover at $2.60-$2.75ish if I’m lucky.
VNDA
Nice gradual fade, but not my ideal PennyStocking short, too tight a chart/variables not fraudulent enough to squeeze one in
BDCO
Everyone’s goin crazy over an 18 cent gain, leme know when it gets to $3, until then jewwwww noooo
BWEN
Perfect perfect breakout, too bad it was Cramer induced aka false—remember GTE’s Cramer induced breakout took a 25% drop after before breaking out due to commodity prices, not any guru
COTE
Probable gap up and possible multi-day runner, couldn’t touch it, pattern day trading rule, triple jewwww yahhhh shout out to the SEC on that one!
VSCI
Getting steep up there in the nose blood seats, when will it end
PLM
Multi-year breakout, but it’s ever so slight—same vein as failure of an impressive breakout ASIA and it’s AMEX, noooo jewwww noooo
GTE
Not such a gradual breakout anymore, making me sing: gimme gimme more, gimme more, gimme gimme more (SEC quarantined trades that is)
FOUR and KYUS
Two pumps getting tired of pumping…what gets pumped must come down
PS
My apologies for not responding to everyone’s individual stock requests, too many these days, keep posting, if it looks interesting to me, I’ll post my thoughts in these pre-market watchlists
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| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 4 | COIN | $5.70 | $6.21 | $745 |
| Sept 3 | COIN | $6.49 | $6.30 | $305 |
| Sept 3 | COINW | $2.75 | $2.85 | $180 |
| Sept 2 | TAYD | $7.51 | $8.13 | $545 |
| Aug 18 | FOUR | $2.80 | $2.66 | $342 |
| Aug 14 | APII | $2.66 | $3.30 | $1261 |
| Aug 12 | APII | $3.25 | $3.40 | $285 |
| Aug 7 | NOBL | $5.02 | $5.49 | $680 |
Total: $26,508 (
114%)
51Davey(TIMBUCKS: $194)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:16 am
whoops Accidentally Sold all @ 2.27…I tried to cancel but it went through. Double clicked the confirm and send to trade desk by mistake. A little $80 gain after commissions.
52timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 10:17 am
i have no idea what four, kyus, gte, gtxo will do–i stick to my supernova shorts, VSCI was nice today missed that, but i doubt i couldve even traded it
53BDOG
May 8th, 2008 at 10:21 am
down goes VRML hopefuklly for the 10 count or 3 count lol
54short shot
May 8th, 2008 at 10:23 am
VSCI weeeeeee
55J-Mo
May 8th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Bob, such low volume on VRML it’s tough to get in. I got a whole 20 shares at 3.84 before it took a dive.
56timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 10:32 am
plenty of volume on VRML, coulda woulda shoulda built your position all up n the 3.70s…u just need to be aggressive
57J-Mo
May 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I just said F*&% it and dropped it down to 3.60. Took out a couple of 1000 share blocks. Still got 980 available. May hold it in case it goes back up.
58Bob the VC(TIMBUCKS: $237)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I’ve just been chasing it, and getting pissed off (or pissed on depending on how you look at it). I’m considering just setting my order to a AON and putting it smack in the middle of the B/A..
59novalis78(TIMBUCKS: $52)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:36 am
ENT is beautiful UP. Broke 2.85
60J-Mo
May 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
How many you got reserved? Thanks for the tip Tim. I just did.
61timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 10:38 am
VRML fading nicely now, even after fluffy PR, late in the game for its 300%+ runup, once it cracks below $3.40, its gone, I still want to cover under $3
62Dan_O(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Nice catch Jensgould, IMO that is a nice H&S forming. Maybe a short would get you to a support @ 11ish, maybe risk a spike up to 17. I doubt the spike though, declining volume, MACD and RSI point to a temporary low.
This stock knows how to behave look at the box breakout pattern in Feb-March.
Noobs, you should take a look at this stock and observe the action. For education only, it definately doesn’t have a the same high probability of Tim’s trading strategy.
*Note: I’m not a pro, if you put my strategy into play you will immediately have a margin call and go to debtors prison. Don’t drop the soap.
63wes
May 8th, 2008 at 10:41 am
SIX just broke down bad
64J-Mo
May 8th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I’m with you Tim, no less more than $3 for these shares. PS, up $252 on ASIA from yesterday and up $210 from VNDA from yesterday. Thanks for the strategy. Me likey a lot a lot.
65JensGould(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:42 am
nice pooping on vrml
66Bob the VC(TIMBUCKS: $237)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:43 am
In 700 shares at 3.49- Tim you’re right as usual. I should have been agressive and grabbed it when it was smacking me in the face at $3.80.. WCS… Story of my life..
67Jeff C
May 8th, 2008 at 10:45 am
ENT anyone?
68short shot
May 8th, 2008 at 10:46 am
ALVR 8.80 short
69novalis78(TIMBUCKS: $52)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:52 am
not enough BP…was going to buy it @2.88 G^%$#
70novalis78(TIMBUCKS: $52)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:52 am
ENT, i mean :-)
71timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 am
nice crack on six, just not enough trades in the day, huh you sanctimonious SEC pricks!
72JensGould(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 10:59 am
there’s np buying interest on vrml! no one wants my shares at 3.50!
73morrisix
May 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
CHNG looks about ready to short
74JensGould(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
spoke too soon
75Jeff C
May 8th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Anyone short GTXO, crash and burn Mav
76novalis78(TIMBUCKS: $52)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:03 am
shorts, stay away from CHNG :-) LOL. That’s a Cramer pick and top chinese microcap
77wes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Someone take a look at SIX for me. I shorted at 3.13, I didn’t catch the drop quick enough I guess….Think it will fall more? Maybe a cover stop at 3.35? or is that too liberal?
78timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
wes, why in the world would u short SIX after a big % drop like that? do u like pain?
79sniper6
May 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
TCMI-probably some insider shill buying up the price to help with the delisting thing, price will plummet but shit for volume..
80JensGould(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
I said it yesterday too, but larger share dumping on lgdi is starting to pick up.
81timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:11 am
VRML inability to go negative on the day thanks to big 10k buy blocks means no morning panic, now either afternoon or tomorrow or even next week…thats annoying
82sniper6
May 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
DAR- another nice breakdown
83J-Mo
May 8th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Tim, is VNDA setting up for an afternoon fade?
84Bob the VC(TIMBUCKS: $237)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Yeah, VRML is out to get me.. I’ve got a meeting at 2:30 which will probably take me through the close.. Do I dare hold over night, or bail at the first sign of a dip before that?
85wes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Tim. I was chasing figuring it would keep droping. Its only a very small position for me though, I’m just testing the water with pennystocks. I usually only play large caps with TA indicators. I’m not as used to all this volitility..
86timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:20 am
i have no idea what vnda is gonna do, its an earnings play!
wes, i dont care how small a position something is, that doesnt give u the right to trade stupidly, probly lose $ then blame it on pennystocking. downhere in the gutter, we never chase…i suggest u check out my dvd so u can learn the rules before it costs u a lot more $300:
http://www.timothysykes.com/dvd
87timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Bob Vrml is not out to get 3.50 was just a stupid entry…int he 3.60s or 3.70s, u still had a chance to get some nice space between u and the support at 3.45, but if u’re gonna short on the bet it goes negative on the day, there’s no point in shorting until that support cracks–ideally u short, making it crack…tough lesson for people to learn that sometimes its better to short at a lower price or not at all
or maybe it wasnt bob who shorted there, i dunno–too many comments
88wes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:30 am
CEGE up 9% in a downtrend. Possibly an afternoon fade approaching?
89Mark
May 8th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Tim, Speaking of annoying…SUNV is annoying right now. Not sure what to do now.
90Bob the VC(TIMBUCKS: $237)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Good point.. I knew my entry on this was total shite as soon as I did it.. I didn’t stay disciplined, and now instead of a sure drop I have to hope it cracks support, which it doesn’t look like it’s going to do..
91aakash
May 8th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Look at akns…shorted at 5.55 expecting to go down to 5 by end of today.
92aakash
May 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
Look at akns…shorted at 5.55 expecting to go down to 5.2 today. What do yall think?
93timothysykes
May 8th, 2008 at 11:41 am
wes dont short random penny stocks, seriously get the dvd, its your only hope cuz youre drawing all the wrong conclusions here
94Dan_O(TIMBUCKS: $53)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:43 am
aakash, I think you are chasing a trade. That probably means you are not in the right mindset. Perhaps you are trying to make up for a loss, I dunno. Either way it looks pretty random.
95Jeff C
May 8th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Thoughts on ENT folks, looks like it hit morning resistance at whole number 3.00
96novalis78(TIMBUCKS: $52)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Sure, 3.0 is a magic number. Market goes sideways anyway now (lunch)…If it can keep the 2.90 range through the afternoon, new buyers may stream in later this day or tomorrow. Who knows :-) (i am not in ENT, s.a.)
97Davey(TIMBUCKS: $194)
May 8th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Guys…STOP WANTING TO TRADE EVERYTHING…These are random plays that you have no advantage on. It’s ok not to trade every minute.
98Davey(TIMBUCKS: $194)
May 8th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Go watch some TimTV there’s a funny clip of a girl turning down a proposal at an NBA game.
99lmsmith
May 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Tim- How do I put my Gavatar up– I was searching all night trying to figure it out
100Bob the VC(TIMBUCKS: $237)
May 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Wow that sucked.. I tried to be clever with a trade trigger, and it backfired. I just covered at 3.70.. That’s a painful lesson. Now do I try to get back in on this spike..