Coulda Woulda Shoulda: When Life Makes You Miss Multi-Day Breakouts & Some Other Stocks To Watch
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 3rd of Apr, 2008 08:38:40 AM
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Fess Up Time: Don’t ya hate when you put a stock on your watchlist, tell yourself you’ll trade it if it acts a certain way, but when that special price action occurs, for some reason, you’re not watching it? I’m sure there are those out there who don’t make such bush league mistakes, but I’m not one of them.
Thanks to the popularity of my latest AOL article—about how Amazon has tried blackmailing small publishers like me–I’ve been talking to a couple of reporters—surprise—and much of that talk happens during the trading day, causing me to miss more than a few potential trades. Oh yeah and incessant blogging doesn’t help.
Now, I hate buying breakouts—they move too slowly, happen to stocks that are too expensive or retrace/fakeout too often, so out of all the stocks below I really only regret missing out on NCEN, because that my friends is the f&^$en Mona Lisa of technical breakouts
NCEN–probly going to $3+, easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy easy 30-50 cents/share, or 10-20%, buy on the intraday break of $2.50, predictable predictable predictable predictable predictable gain. An infinitely better trader than me, Fous, nailed it again. (I’m not only an affiliate, I’m even considering signing up for his stock picking service!) As did some of my DVD students…those who can’t do, teach!
SOLF—nice multi-day breakout, but where to now? Solid resistance in the high $15s
AKNS—just keeps going, aka why you don’t short strong stocks UNTIL there’s weakness
YGE—strong multi-day breakout, don’t even think about shorting
TSL—strong, but lots of resistance coming up, still, don’t even think about shorting
CSIQ, ASTI upcoming
Watching NTWK HYTM EPEX for more gains before I short
EXFO you don’t short cuz of meaningful news, in the form of strong earnings
Last but certainly least—legitimacy-wise—3 days ago, I posted HYBR was getting spammed big-time, 43% drop since, too bad no shares available to short!
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20 | STXS | $3.21 | $3.48 | $813 |
| Nov 18 | PERY | $4.68 | $5.00 | $640 |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2.79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $35,854 (189%)
Tony Ellis, I’ll live vicariously through you, tell me you loaded up on NCEN and made 10x the DVD cost!
What is your guys plays today? I am looking at COT to take a fall today. aAready 10 min into the day and almost no volume! Might be the day it will run down.
This i would call the pump…maybe the dump is coming.
What do you think tim?
i see no great setups, COT could tank, but only if it cracks under $3.25 first, which it held extraordinarily well
I’ve been short COT since yesterday morning @ 3.48
I thought about taking my losses, but the failed breakout to new highs yesterday afternoon has kept me in.
however, I don’t like the level 2 action at all, neither today nor yesterday
Max….While this pig is dumping down. Could you let me know what you are looking at in the level 2 that you don’t like. Just trying to learn. Thanks.
Tim..please feel free to jump in. Reading level two charts should be a post.
10K @ 3.35 out half 2.96 -2.98 holding rest for a possible run over 3
TIM, You said don’t hink of shorting TSL. But looks like many are shorting already pushing the stock down.. ?!
2.35 sorry, also bought DSTI @ 3.35
I just don’t like how both the sellers and buyers of this stock are very flighty, and there tends to be more support just below the bid than there is resistance above the ask - although it looks like all heavy buyers under 3.51 from this morning have left the building
seems like lots of fake bids, with the occasional seller trying to sneak in
buyers quickly jump out of the woodwork at new lows also
What do you think of HOKU?
That help a liitle… Thanks Max
AKNS going to be a good short Tim! Nice chart
Thanks
TIM, is it time to jump to TSL. Looks like its hititng hard on the resistance..
Tony- Nice chart on HOKU, always seems to play real nice it’s on my radar for a break of 9. Extremely low volume though compared to the days where it has big moves
Tony - nice pay day on NCEN - great job
no don’t short random ass patterns like HOKU
TSL, who cares about this little dip, chart doesnt support much downside theory
Tony, Are you in on DSTI?! It looks like a nice uptrend chart.
TIM, I was watching CSIQ since it gone low to $16. Couldn’t get in at that time for long?! It broke the resistance and moving up.. Next resistance seems to be $28 or so. Do you think it will go that far?!
Tim any thoughts on VRTX? Would you like to see another spike out of it, or just stay away? Its up 100% in the past week or 2 but very well could consolidate and spike again
DSTI still holding….HOKU wasn’t interested in shorting. Possible long if breaks 9 on strong volume.
hoku, vrtx, asti, grmn, csco, good, rimm, all too random for me, no pumps, no pure breakouts, avoid them all unless u NCEN-type breakouts or REED-like pops
I am still holding my orignal SHORT of 500 shares at $8, added 500 shares more at $8.50 now this pos will take a dive….
Is anyone long on CDS? Looks like a strong climb.
CDS, looks poised for nice up movement.. but not real good volume or movement.
TIM, Here comes COT, to your level
out DSTI 3.8
… and the buyers pop out of the woodwork again
Max…I think they will get taken out again. But I see what you mean.
… and are gone again - will they ever decide what price is low enough to buy at? :)
ASTI SPUMANTI BIG BOY!!! SAY GOODBYE ANYDAY NOW!!! PROBABLY TODAY INTO TOMORROW…HA HA HA .. WAITING PATIENTLY..LOL
out COT @ 3.35 - no idea what’s going to happen now, although the longer term trend is down
Max…what!!! This thing is droping! You now where the buyer that came out of the wood work!
Nice job on leaving money on the table. What was your profit?
Looks like 3.30 is the price to break for COT!
I am trading a very small account somewhat conservatively - I was short 300 shares @ 3.48 so I made $39 profit (which was greater than my R value of around $30 for this trade)
granted, I could have squeezed a few extra dollars out, but that sort of thinking gets me in trouble
as Tim is saying, 3.25 is a very important price point
I prefer remaining safe and re-entering if warranted on this one
I’m okay with being wrong on this one - I’ll take the peace of mind realized profits gives me
also, the trade I was making, the REAL price point to be short at was 3.55-3.58 - I missed this by a good margin
Very nice at sticking you your game plan!!! TWO BIG THUMBS UP!
anyone else watching BPAX? the resistance it faces at $4.50 (still off its recent high today of 4.56) is tempting to short into, but it has been in an uptrend since its $4 low on monday
I really want to short it, but it would almost make more sense to go long on a pullback or breakout (seems like limited downside at this point)
any thoughts?
Max,
I was rather tempted to buy BPAX bitch today around 4.22, but the bitch left w/o me. It might go above $5, just my pure guess.
BPAX has a 200 MA crossing right at 4.84, a big resistance..
That huge volume up day after the stock already jumped from 2-4 looks like the last of the longs piling in. Until today it looked like it was breaking down. But, now it looks like its consolidating. If it does breakout its got a lot of downward pressure till 6. I’m waiting for another big move in any direction before I make a move. Hard to tell if a pull back is really a pullback or the stock breaking down. Anyone else?
The way BPAX acting lately, it might cross that 200 DMA in a heartbeat and closes above $5.
And who the hell is keeping RC Cola and Diet Rite above 3.25-3.30?
I see the BPAX ADX and all looks uptrend.. May it is poised set to go up above $5. who is jumping in ?! I might..
Anyone in MELA?
Nice find
thats is a nice uptrend stock.. but just the volume is not too much for me..
Nice chart on BPAX but the buyers are not there.
have we talked about YTBLA here yet? Take a look!
Tim, I know that your strategy is mainly based on shorts that are rarely held onto for a few days. I am just curious as to why, after looking at the terrible 1st quarter of the overall market, you would not hold onto some of these stock (short position) for more than a few days. The returns you could be experienced would be far greater than what you have experienced. Please do not take this the wrong way because I think you are a great trader, but why not sit on some of these stocks for a longer time? And I know you will say something about unpredictability, but it wasn’t a secret that we were or either in or near a recession.
cuz i dont have the capital to sit around and wait, new opportunities every few days, cant risk being stuck in some other position. and recession–stop listening to the crap that is the financial media, there are time lags involved–unpredictable ones–it could already be priced in…dont play market guessing games, it’s impossible to have much edge, let $3b macro funds play that game
@ Andrew, that is a good question….I was going to ask the same thing- I made a kiling last month, and for the first couple of days longing several stocks…… but I think TIM does not want to divert from his strategy and only want to reach his 1mil mark with his strategy….