A TIMer’s Dozen: Recent And Current PennyStocking Plays
TIM $16,075 Down $105, Dumb trade wastes $40 monthly gift from Thinkorswim
I’ve written about these stocks before, but every day brings new data (of course, the data rules most plays out, aka ideal trades happen rarely). Remember, you’re not trading based on business performance, you’re trading based on stock performance (two very diff. things, the biz is usually just a front to raise capital/issue more stock anyway!), as if you betting on horses. (one very applicable old/hard-to-find book is Secrets of Professional Turf Betting) Like horses, each stock has specific characteristics—some are fast spikers (DARA, SHZ, IDMI, SOIGF), some breakout gradually (SWC, CTUM, GEOI, GENC, damn you COIN!) and most just suck/can’t hold their gains (over time, all of the above).
Let’s start with those from which you can still profit:
SOIGF—Sir Spamalot, an oil play that loves sending out spam claiming to be the next Exxon. As I posted HERE, spam stocks are scary to buy into, so I hesitated and missed a big runup. Nows its off its high, but maybe they’ll start the spam up again…
COIN—the clear play du now, when it stops nobody knows, out goes Y-O-U (you short sellers that is) C’mon, don’t you wanna go out with a bang? C’mon be a good microcrapper, yes you are, yesssss you are, who’s a good boy, yessss you are! Hopefully the overall market/financial collapse doesn’t get in the way of destiny.
COINW—moves based on COIN, just somewhat exponentially…can’t find any shares to short, can anybody else?
CTUM—responsible for my loss today, not the stock’s fault—my fault. I pledged to wait to buy into a strong close that would signal a morning spike tomorrow, but I jumped the gun at 3:20pm, buying 2k shares at $2.345, expecting a close around/breakout of $2.40
TIM Lesson: Wait for the breakouts, don’t anticipate them
Impatient as ever, I fell in love with the variables—acceleration of the daily uptrend, solid volume and story (they’ve patented tissue welding, potentially revolutionary as there’d be no more need for sutures, stitches, staples, but shady shady website) (shady is good short-term, if stock promoters do their jobs correctly), but didn’t wait for the most important one of all, the strong move into the close needed to seal the deal.
Unfortunately, the overall market tank accelerated, scaring out a few weak hands, including me, as I sold at $2.31 and $2.30, not wanting to risk a big tank into the market close (as happened on 2 previous spikes last month without the help of a national financial crisis). I was right to take my losses quickly (closed 10 cents lower), wrong to be involved in the first place.
SWC—despite its nice double break of $19.80, hesitated in shorting it since it’s a metals play…no guts, no glory…B aggressive, B-E aggressive
GEOI—hesitated in buying the breakout at $10.50 because it’s a commodity play, certainly won’t be the last one I miss…
CPST—hesitated buying the breakout at $2-ish cuz it’s not volatile enough for the infinitely impatient, good avoidance
Perfect PennyStocking plays of weeks’ past:
SHZ—down $2+ since my cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held
DARA—down $1.75 since my buy to cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held (common theme with these)
IDMI—bouncy little sucker, too scary to hold
CEGE—too picky in my entry, never shorted it, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!
STEN—never found shares to short, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!
Sooooooooo, I will continue stalking as usual…
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| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 4 | COIN | $5.70 | $6.21 | $745 |
| Sept 3 | COIN | $6.49 | $6.30 | $305 |
| Sept 3 | COINW | $2.75 | $2.85 | $180 |
| Sept 2 | TAYD | $7.51 | $8.13 | $545 |
| Aug 18 | FOUR | $2.80 | $2.66 | $342 |
| Aug 14 | APII | $2.66 | $3.30 | $1261 |
| Aug 12 | APII | $3.25 | $3.40 | $285 |
| Aug 7 | NOBL | $5.02 | $5.49 | $680 |
Total: $26,508 (
114%)
1Mike T
March 6th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Nice post Tim. Some good charts as always.
I paper traded DARA and SWC since I spotted them on your blog. Followed and agreed with your opinion on shorting SWC if it cracks $20ish (shorted at 19.80ish) and shorted DARA at $4.75, cover at $3.55. 28% returns in a week for that paper trading account (using mostly the pennystocking strategy you are trying to teach us all). So far so good and when I’m satisfied with practicing this strategy enough I’ll start using to for real profit making, Good work Tim and I hope to keep learning more on your proven strategy!
2Mike T
March 6th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
P.S. unless it’s just my browser, I can’t see the 1st post under each blog page (including mine above)
3GaryG
March 6th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Yeah Tim, you need to have your web developer test your site in IE and Firefox. Site works fine in firefox but not so well in IE and since IE is the dominate browser you should probably makes sure it works for your site. For instance in IE the fourms screw up the alignment of the ads and you have to scroll down below the left banner to see them or the left banner overlaps it. I know you just spent a whole bunch of time/money redoing it and this makes it look amatureish.
BTW thanks for the STEN headsup yesterday, TOS got me 500 this morning.
4Tony Ellis
March 6th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
EGO… Impressive breakout. Think it can go anywhere from here?
5timsykes
March 6th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
eog has several things wrong with it, the news was fundamentally good, its tied to gold prices and its too actively traded. no edge whatsoever
6Adam
March 6th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
I was able to short STEN (very small position) and am looking for it to hit $3ish before I cover. I wanted to jump on SWC but no shares were available. Although its a big capper, DHI has been a fantastic short- beautiful double top just under $18.
7ETQT
March 6th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
do you really think it will hit $3?
I have a short position @ $4.4
8Raman
March 6th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Wassup Tim, don’t know if you know, but theres a company called Sykes Enterprises. Dont know anything about it, just thought it was kinda funny. Keep up the good posts. Peace.
9timsykes
March 6th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
yah i know SYKE, i use to want to buy shares to make it look like insider buying…lol
10Adam
March 6th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
I think it will get down to $3.5 at least although $3 is not crazy.
Sykes Ent.– If I remember correctly I believe he recommended it on last years CNBC Million Dollar challenge and it was a nice short squeeze.
11admin
March 7th, 2008 at 3:30 am
To everyone here with browser / page layout issues, please contact me directly at ADMIN@TIMOTHYSYKES.COM with site issues and your browser info (name and version number). We’re working on making TimothySykes.com more IE6 friendly.
12James
March 7th, 2008 at 4:11 am
Hey Tim, what are your thoughts on CPST?
13timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 8:43 am
i talk about CPST in the post!
14Joseph
March 7th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Today might be your day Tim. (COIN)
15timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 9:12 am
no COIN available at TOS!
16lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Getting ready for my Morning buy of Coin……and then 10 minute dump.
17timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 9:33 am
your little morning COIN buy pattern worked cuz the shorts were being squeezed during the runup…now that the stock is on th flip side, do not be fooled into thinking its a sustainable pattern. trust me, i am the pattern master, i’ve tried them all
18puma
March 7th, 2008 at 9:35 am
coin down 0.69 in afterhours/pre-open
19timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 9:44 am
awesome, found some COINW to short, just gotta keep trying, sometimes shares open up
20puma
March 7th, 2008 at 9:48 am
tim, did you reserve shares or do you actually have a stake in shorting coinw right now? can you highlight the difference over COIN in shorting COINW?
21lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 9:48 am
You have to LOVE COIN!!! play the game folks coming on Timmy!!
22lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Tim- bout 600 shares at $15. 50…… I haven’t sold yet but will soon
23lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 9:51 am
I also bout TMA- 4000 at $1.39 despite what you said- already up…..
24timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 9:58 am
oh don’t get me wrong, u can have plenty of gains buying other patterns, u also just risk disaster. TMA could stop trading, COIN could go in a multi-$ plunge. but posting your entries and exits is meaningless…these are lesser reliable patterns and people lie (nobody on Elitetrader loses $ LOL)….
just reserved the COINW shares, gotta wait and see if todays the day or not
25lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 10:02 am
understandable tim—— I know the risk….. but it’s the reward I am after.. besides both stock will be out my portfolio before you can respond…
26timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Shorted 125 COINW at $12.45, damn partial fill, waiting on my 175 other shares
27timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 10:33 am
a couple of mistakes by thinkorswim chat window guys, some correcting, some commission free trades and presto I’m short 300 COINW at $12.345. i can’t say it enough, those guys rock!
28Andrew
March 7th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Hey Tim can you see live future prices on TOS?
29lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I am out of COIN- at 16.75- but TMA I am still holding- this one is aiming for the stars…..
30timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 10:43 am
i dunno, i dont care about futures, i stick to the niches i know, overnight i can’t but help check cme.com to watch the futures
31coinzmaster
March 7th, 2008 at 10:46 am
COIN IS THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ITS GOING TO 25!!!!!!! WATCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
32Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 10:47 am
why did you close to short COIN today? fading volume? being flat since yesterday??
33timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 10:52 am
those of u emailing me why i’m short COINW–first of all its a play on COIN, i just couldnt find any COIN shares to short. yes i, and u, should usually wait til the afternoon to short these runners, but the spread on COINW (usually 25 cents) and the $1.5 morning surge off its low on COIN (which still only made it slightly positive on the day) added to the fact that the run ended just below yesterday top (double-top?) all leads me to believe i want to be short rather than later (even if it held those gains, it’d still be a bad day for the momentum folks because with this strong a breakout, the stock should be up $1-2 daily) (if it doesnt hold its gains, it’ll be down on the day–students of my DVD know to short on the first down day–so monday theoretically should be ugly). so i’m a bit early–as usual–but my 300 shares at 12.35 make it only a $4k-ish position, so i can afford to hold a bit.
30 min into the trade COIN has cracked back negative on the day, COINW is trading at 11.80 x 12.20 (ridiculous 40 cent spread) and I’m up $150 or os (if i cover at the bid, which i’d probly only get a partial fill anyway, and i want a bigger $ gain)
34Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 10:53 am
sorry - why did you choose*
35Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Plenty of COIN available to short at scottrade
36timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 10:59 am
hey, scottrade finally has some shares to short, welcome to the party!
coinw, coin, coinz, u can’t miss, just wish i had those pics of their crappy operation to rub some salt in the wound
37The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Hey Tim do you know how to find out when coin reports earnings?? thx..
38The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 11:04 am
coin is looking very weak by the way after bouncing off 17 again…. shorts r going to have a ball with this thing today and into next week………..been waiting all week for this one!!!!!!!!!!!
39Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Tim, since you along with others shorted COIN, COINW, COINZ whatever they got, it now time to post COIN’s articles and post you mentioned yesterday?
40timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
oh baby up $250 on my COINW short right now, TIM $16.3k
i hope COIN reports ASAP, maybe we can get a SEED-like report!
41Funterpwave
March 7th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Testing $16…..
42The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 11:25 am
nice! hold it.. u havent seen nothing yet
43COINZMASTER
March 7th, 2008 at 11:25 am
YOU BEEN BEAR TRAPPED LEARN TO VIEW LEVEL 2 PLZ
44Funterpwave
March 7th, 2008 at 11:27 am
According to my level II, no large buyers at $16..
45lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Great! Tim- can’t wait until you get to the 25k mark- I am routing for you…. after my large gain on TMA I will be there shortley….
46timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 11:50 am
COIN tanking PERFECTLY, wow my timing was actualy good for once, now the question is do i hold or take my 10% profits? hmmmmmmmmmmmm, good problem to have
47ETQT
March 7th, 2008 at 11:53 am
wow…
I really wish my broker had shares
first time they havent come through for me
maybe monday
48The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 11:54 am
HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK
49The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 11:56 am
HELLO CORNZMASTER
50timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 11:58 am
I’m out at $11.34…probly too early, but I just don’t trust COIN, every dip has been followed by a surge, this time could be different by only a 50/50 chance, not good enough for me. $300 profit and an 8% gain in 2 hours IS good enough for me…TIM $16.4k…lesson taught…time to catch up on this week’s emails
51mike
March 7th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Tim, you should have waited!!!!
52COINZMASTER
March 7th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
AFTER TAXES A MEXICAN DAY LABORER MAKES MORE AND DOES NOT RISK ALL HIS LITTLE CASH TO MAKE IT LOL!!!!
53timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
COINW down $1 more in 10 minutes…hahaha welcome to my life….alll i can do is laugh…i’m very good at understanding all the variables and have a general idea of where to enter/exit, but i ALWAYS underestimate how quickly profits can double and triple
54Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
COINZMASTER, you suck!! You probably don’t even made a penny, you lost your ass off. COIN will tank!!
55lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
If coinzmaster was in since the stock was at $4- he probably made a good 100k plus depending on how much he bought and if he sold…….. he still has time to sell
56mike
March 7th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
he gets paid by pumping COIN in various Mbs, the guy lies right in your face and thinks he’s god.
If i see him in real life, i would probably beat the crap out of him.
57Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I don’t care when Coinzmaster was in, he is just stupid, can’t read a chart.
58be-the-ball
March 7th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
lmsmith,
if you believe he was in at $4, I have some Enron stock to sell you, cheap. Gtd to go to $1,000 a share in 1 year or less.
59timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
COINZMasterbater–u just don’t get it, i have plenty of cash to live on while TIM is so low, but there’s simply no way to teach people who have small accounts from me trading a big account. serves no purpose other than putting too much emphasis on ym trading gains and not enough on teaching. its good for me to make so little, makes me teach more to make more from my book/dvd/website.
and its gonna be soooo sweet to repeat my feat, smack in the faces of ignorant people who hate and refuse to learn the details. i have no problem with haters, just make sure u come at me with facts, not just your uneducated opinion
60COINZMASTER
March 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
MY MONEY WAS IN COINZ SOME IN COIN 85%IN COINZ REST IN COIN SO I MADE MORE CAUSE A PAID $1$ FOR THE COINZ AND TRADED A FEW TIMES SO I REALLY PAID NOTHING LOL COIN WAS 4$
61Al
March 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
ZQK up on analyst rankings
62Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Seems like COIN is going to go leg down if it breaks down below $15
63lmsmith
March 7th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
be-the-ball
Rightttt….
64Lisa
March 7th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Timmy!!!! you missed another dollar profit!!!!
gotta work on your exit strategy man
anyway, good job.
i love your honesty!!!!!
hate those wall street liars
65Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Sweet, COIN dropping further down! Thanks TIM.
66Gary
March 7th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Not happy with Etrade…the past few time I have tryed to short they have nothing.
anbody get any off Etrade???
67timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
COINW now down another $1.50 from my cover, $450 left on the table…you readers bet be up more than $450, then i’ll at least feel better!
68Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Ready for another leg down to $14?
69timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
awesome now $2, its trying to secure its place as the most perfect short all time
70Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I have an account with TD-Ameritrade, Scottrade, and Zecco. Tried all three in the morning, none of them had COIN to short but right after TIM’s post shorting COINW, tried again and Scottrade gave me as many as I wanted. TD-Ameritrade said COINW is not allowed to short even with my own money, ridiculous!!
71Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Sweet, COIN hit $14, I am covering for now. It probably will bounce back to mid to high $14 to close, but looking at the chart, there isn’t another support until around $13. We shall see. Anyway, Thanks Tim!
72Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
is this the full blown crash we were expecting for so long? no chance of any more rebound?? it seems for the past 2 or 3 weeks mondays show a huge rebound
73Funterpwave
March 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
BTW, meantime SHZ is all the way down to $5.30…..
74Funterpwave
March 7th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Covered 1000 COINW at 9.15 and another 200 at 9.05…. Unfortunately I am still stuck with 750 and dont really konw what to do with them. Tim, what do you think?
75Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Like Tim said above, Monday could be a real blood bath for COIN, if it rebounces back upto $15+ level by the closing, I will short more and hold it over the weekend. What about you, Tim?
76timsykes
March 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
I think I’m glad u guys made more $ than me, monday could be a bloodbath or a rebound day, i take my 10-20% gains and don’t look back. usually u can re-enter
77Funterpwave
March 7th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
I would love to get rid of them but am afraid no more shorts are available for later… Any luck my Scottrade friends?
78Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Scottrade still has shares to short. Seems like COIN can not even hold $14. Where is it going to go to stop, if it can’t hold $14.
79The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
THE BARBER PULLED A NICE 11000 PROFIT…..THANX FOLKS!!! HAD TO COVER SCARED OF QUICK POP…TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE SHORT THIS ANIMAL.. THANX CORN Z MASTER.. GOING OUT TO DINNER ON YOU TONIGHT..
80Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
sounds like a possible short sqeeze then if thats the case?
81The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Big buy blocks coming in be careful shorts
82Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
we saw this before… now its really gonna come back real hard and hit 20 next week.
83The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
no way all down hill next week. It broke down very bearishly today. crazy to buy this on the dip…………
84Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Anybody shorting or buying COIN at closing?
85Stan
March 7th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
i think u gotta buy. from a technical standpoint, every dip like this has resulted in a major seurve.. forthe last 2-3 weeks after lackluster or losing fridays they have come back on monday and tuesdays to reach new highs. the pumpers are still working this stock
86Matt
March 7th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Looking at the chart, it seems like it is going to drop further down before it can return. I am taking a short position. Have a great weekend ya’ll.
87FitTrader
March 7th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I don’t know how you’re getting stocks to short. I think this thing has fizzled, I would be careful on any buy position over the weekend. Mon. morning will tell all, as Tim says, let the price action dictate your next move and jump on for the ride.
88The Barber
March 7th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
TREND IS YOUR FRIEND…COIN IS TRENDING DOWN AND IS GOING TO MAKE ME EVEN MORE MONEY NEXT WEEK… THANKS TO ALL YOU ORGANIC JUNKIES OUT THERE!!!!!!!!!!! IM NOT EATING ORGANIC THIS WEEKEND IM EATING WAGU BEEF!!!!!!!!!
89Adam
March 8th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
i couldn’t get it though e-trade either, missed swc as well. tim- is tos the best way to go as far as share availability goes?
90timsykes
March 8th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
yes TOS is def. the best discount online broker for borrows. thats why they’re my choice!
91Alan
March 12th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
I tried shorting SWC around 20, but etrade said that they didn’t have the shares to short. I have run into this problem many times. Any suggestions. What brokerage will allow me to short when I want?