To Trust The Charts Or Not To Trust The Charts, That Is The Question
Posted by timothysykes on Mon 3rd of Mar, 2008 10:58:32 AM
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“You can never step into the same river; for new waters are always flowing on to you.”
–Heraclitis
But back then, StockCharts.com wasn’t around so he couldn’t compare these 100-day charts of equally sketchy alternative energy plays Solarfun (SOLF) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX).
As I wrote in this post a few weeks ago, when SOLF was $17 (coulda woulda shoula, coulda woulda shoulda!), me thinks SOLF bulls doth protest too much. After that pattern came and went, as PEIX’s performance over the next two years shows, it’s no smooth ride to single digits, SOLF shorts be warned…
And, of course, as this Yahoo! Finance quote of the 30-year treasuries shows, you can’t can’t always trust the charts/data:
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20 | STXS | $3.21 | $3.48 | $813 |
| Nov 18 | PERY | $4.68 | $5.00 | $640 |
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2.79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $35,854 (189%)
Damn Solar stocks- I am staying away for a long time- not only have I made money off of them before 2008- but once we entered the new year….. damn stocks burned me…. looking for new ways to recover
Hey Tim, what do you think of RHD and IAR today? Got into IAR at 5.09 and RHD at 7.35. Both seem to be winners of the day.
Cheers
lol you’re a funny dude, man…opening sentence got me laughing
TSL morning spike, maybe TSL is filling up the downgrades 3 days ago?
Tim, You apparently are having great success recently. However, it seems your main thrust these days is teaching people how to trade like you do. In this regard, there is scant evidence on this site that others have been remotely as successful as you. As a matter of fact, the only thing that seems apparent is that you are not doing very well teaching people how to identify potential plays. Most posts on here seek your opinion on various stock plays and you dismiss about 99.99% of them for various reasons. Why is everyone having such difficulty spotting potential setups?
scott,
cause there aren’t very many. ideally you would only trade once or twice a month. but we are all addicts.
of tims trades in feb only 2 or 3 were actually perfect setups, the rest were addict trades…
I’ve noticed that too, but he did say it’s all about patterns and people haven’t been able to spot these patterns that’s probably why he dismissed so many of them.
see the comments section on posts about IDMI, DARA, COIN and SHZ, my readers are having more success than me! as for my pickiness in plays, thats how i do it, thats what i teach, thats whats ideal for people that cant trade every second and most importantly for smaller investors. for one reason or another, most plays are completely random and by focusing on them, thats why people lose $ trading. i hold my students to higher standards. we wait for all the variables to be aligned. here are quotes to live by:
Wait for the fat pitch. - Warren Buffett: comparing investing to a baseball game where you can wait endlessly for the perfect pitch before you swing.
I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work…And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realize when it’s a special day. - George Soros talking to Byron Wien
His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. - from Jesse Livermore, Worlds Greatest Stock Trader
Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. …Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.- Gerald Loeb
You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.- Seth Glickenhaus
You missed one of the most classic quotes from the annals of philosophy (well, okay…TV to be honest)…
Patience, grasshopper, patience.
BTW - Your blog rocks! Today the Heraclitus quote really got me excited…that was soooo apropos. I’m suprised you didn’t dig up a great Nietzche or Heiddeger (xcuse my spelling if need be) to illustrate this notion of investing as a baseball game.
HNAB looks like a big mover today.
How did u find HNAB? Great find.
Tim what do you think about CTUM for a breakout?
COIN hit your taget price above $12.41, time to buy for a quick ride. Are you ready??
Not $12.41, typo:( I mean $14.41, and alredy crossed $14.50 at over 2000000 shares volume
COIN, i’m thinking about buying for the close, but i truly hate buying breakouts, so i’m gonna wait as long as i can…last time it hit $14.40ish and fell, lets see if it can start to really squeeze, then 10-20 cents won’t really matter
It’s tough to strike out with the bat on your shoulder while waiting for that perfect pitch.
TRR?
yah i’ so weary of COIN, such a pathetic breakout…again…reminds me of YTEC, a stock that is now $2 off its highs
Tim,
If COIN closes under 14.00 would you go long overnight or would you consider it a short opportunity ?
ivan, theres a third option, avoid altogether
Seems like the correct option LOL
Correct!!
bought 300 COIN at $14.49, did it during a live radio interview, def. gonna post the link its hilarious…gotta love this breakout!
COIN Closed near the highs - short squeeze tomorrow morning ?
Tim you think its going to gap up tomorrow? and you’re going to press the eject button?
Tim, are you talking about potentially buying COIN as a long play thinking it might breakout even more, or are you looking to short it if you make a move?
SWC….should we get our bear claws ready?
just bought for a breakout/morning squeeze, but this stock is one strong sucka—listen to my hourlong radio interview, the last 10 minutes are my COIN trade LOL:
http://www.modavox.com/voiceam.....038;Flag=1
SWC……I was saying this at $18…..Don’t even think about it untill it EVER finishes negative on the day….. just my opinion.
sold my COIN at $14.97, just booked another interview so i’m not gonna be around tomorrow morning and i dont trust the stock further than i can throw it
how can I learn how to trade these, TIM?
D, just follow along on the blog, check out my book and DVD and ask any question in the forums. my business model is hardcore learning
Hey Scott - Part of the learning process of this website is WHY 99.9% of the charts people suggest are bad entry points. I think it’s awesome that Tim is screening thousands of charts a day for me (and anybody else with a pulse and a few dollars to trade). The only way that you haven’t made money by reading this site is by taking the other side of these trades out of pure skepticism.