TIM Reviews

Tired of my quick one line answers to your questions about what I think of your stocks? Well, now for only $20/ticker , I’ll write a thorough review, covering my take on a stock’s chart, their business and my short-term and long-term outlook. Thanks to absurd industry regulations, this is not financial advice, it’s for informational & educational purposes only.

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Sample Reviews

5/1/08 ETFC Analysis
Technical:
This is a classic hard hit stock where there’s soooo many bitter people who bought at higher prices willing to sell their shares and stem their account bleeding on any bounce. That’s why it’s sooooo rare for ANY company with a chart such as this to come back unless their business really starts booming—see FRPT, another failure of a company. Even more negative is the fact that ETFC is making lower highs each time it tries bouncing–$6 back in November 2007, $5.50 in February and $4.50 in early April. If it can’t break that trend, it’s going nowhere fast.

The good news is that it is possible—although unlikely—for these kinds of charts to bounce quickly—exemplified by SWHC over the past few days—if ETFC does in fact turn the corner. Key breakout level is $6, then really the sky’s the limit.

Fundamental:

What a mess! Forget about revenues, earnings, profit margins, forward guidance—none of that matters as much as the company keeps pulling in new customers to offset their horrific mortgage business. 62,000 in the first 3 months this year helps, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Overall:

Unless housing gets better in a hurry, this ain’t going anywhere fast…I’d avoid—long or short—until it breaks $6, then it could actually get volatile and interesting.

Disclaimer: I’ve got no position one way or the other and this is for entertainment / educational purposes only

5/1/08 PENN Analysis:

Technicals:

Shareholders have gotten pounded (meaning plenty will sell into any bounce), if you’ve been in this for a while, you def. shoulda sold out in early February when it took out huge support at $50…it’s working on a nice triple bottom at $38-$39, but if that cracks, you have no support until the low $30s. Its tried repeatedly to break resistance at $46, but so far it couldn’t hold and lately it’s only been able to get to $45 before fading.

The great news is that if you look out 5 and 10 years, you’ll see 2 similar multi-month drops back in 2005 and 2006, both of which were solid buying opportunities…the question now is will history repeat or will this drop stick? (of course both of those were in a bull market too)

Fundamentals:

The company recently missed expectations on both earnings and revenues—pathetic growth—and the typical CEO response was to blame it on the economy…the smoking ban hurt one of their casinos and now everyone’s scared the $67/share deal won’t go through. Nothing looking very rosy here.

Overall:

Great industry to be invested in long-term—I prefer higher growth/riskier WYNN, but that’s me. The acquisition looks to have a rather remote chance of going through, I’d say 10-20% chance of it still happening…Since it’s down so much there’s obviously less risk, although if it cracks that key $38-39, you really gotta watch out for a probable 20% drop, especially considering this company ain’t growing and yet it’s still somewhat highly valued.
This stock falls into the great range of stocks where the upside potential and downside risk look rather even—there’s no edge whatsoever so there’s no point in trying to make predictions, it’s just a random play that should be avoided unless you want to hold it for 5+ years, where the odds it going higher might actually be greater than 50-55%

Disclaimer: I’ve got no position one way or the other and this is for entertainment / educational purposes only