A TIMer’s Dozen: Recent And Current PennyStocking Plays
Posted by timothysykes on Thu 6th of Mar, 2008 08:20:54 PM
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TIM $16,075 Down $105, Dumb trade wastes $40 monthly gift from Thinkorswim
I’ve written about these stocks before, but every day brings new data (of course, the data rules most plays out, aka ideal trades happen rarely). Remember, you’re not trading based on business performance, you’re trading based on stock performance (two very diff. things, the biz is usually just a front to raise capital/issue more stock anyway!), as if you betting on horses. (one very applicable old/hard-to-find book is Secrets of Professional Turf Betting) Like horses, each stock has specific characteristics—some are fast spikers (DARA, SHZ, IDMI, SOIGF), some breakout gradually (SWC, CTUM, GEOI, GENC, damn you COIN!) and most just suck/can’t hold their gains (over time, all of the above).
Let’s start with those from which you can still profit:
SOIGF—Sir Spamalot, an oil play that loves sending out spam claiming to be the next Exxon. As I posted HERE, spam stocks are scary to buy into, so I hesitated and missed a big runup. Nows its off its high, but maybe they’ll start the spam up again…
COIN—the clear play du now, when it stops nobody knows, out goes Y-O-U (you short sellers that is) C’mon, don’t you wanna go out with a bang? C’mon be a good microcrapper, yes you are, yesssss you are, who’s a good boy, yessss you are! Hopefully the overall market/financial collapse doesn’t get in the way of destiny.
COINW—moves based on COIN, just somewhat exponentially…can’t find any shares to short, can anybody else?
CTUM—responsible for my loss today, not the stock’s fault—my fault. I pledged to wait to buy into a strong close that would signal a morning spike tomorrow, but I jumped the gun at 3:20pm, buying 2k shares at $2.345, expecting a close around/breakout of $2.40
TIM Lesson: Wait for the breakouts, don’t anticipate them
Impatient as ever, I fell in love with the variables—acceleration of the daily uptrend, solid volume and story (they’ve patented tissue welding, potentially revolutionary as there’d be no more need for sutures, stitches, staples, but shady shady website) (shady is good short-term, if stock promoters do their jobs correctly), but didn’t wait for the most important one of all, the strong move into the close needed to seal the deal.
Unfortunately, the overall market tank accelerated, scaring out a few weak hands, including me, as I sold at $2.31 and $2.30, not wanting to risk a big tank into the market close (as happened on 2 previous spikes last month without the help of a national financial crisis). I was right to take my losses quickly (closed 10 cents lower), wrong to be involved in the first place.
SWC—despite its nice double break of $19.80, hesitated in shorting it since it’s a metals play…no guts, no glory…B aggressive, B-E aggressive
GEOI—hesitated in buying the breakout at $10.50 because it’s a commodity play, certainly won’t be the last one I miss…
CPST—hesitated buying the breakout at $2-ish cuz it’s not volatile enough for the infinitely impatient, good avoidance
Perfect PennyStocking plays of weeks’ past:
SHZ—down $2+ since my cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held
DARA—down $1.75 since my buy to cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held (common theme with these)
IDMI—bouncy little sucker, too scary to hold
CEGE—too picky in my entry, never shorted it, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!
STEN—never found shares to short, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!
Sooooooooo, I will continue stalking as usual…
Check out my brand new DVD, ShortStocking - the only guide you'll ever need to profit from short selling!
Nice post Tim. Some good charts as always.
I paper traded DARA and SWC since I spotted them on your blog. Followed and agreed with your opinion on shorting SWC if it cracks $20ish (shorted at 19.80ish) and shorted DARA at $4.75, cover at $3.55. 28% returns in a week for that paper trading account (using mostly the pennystocking strategy you are trying to teach us all). So far so good and when I’m satisfied with practicing this strategy enough I’ll start using to for real profit making, Good work Tim and I hope to keep learning more on your proven strategy!
P.S. unless it’s just my browser, I can’t see the 1st post under each blog page (including mine above)
Yeah Tim, you need to have your web developer test your site in IE and Firefox. Site works fine in firefox but not so well in IE and since IE is the dominate browser you should probably makes sure it works for your site. For instance in IE the fourms screw up the alignment of the ads and you have to scroll down below the left banner to see them or the left banner overlaps it. I know you just spent a whole bunch of time/money redoing it and this makes it look amatureish.
BTW thanks for the STEN headsup yesterday, TOS got me 500 this morning.
EGO… Impressive breakout. Think it can go anywhere from here?
eog has several things wrong with it, the news was fundamentally good, its tied to gold prices and its too actively traded. no edge whatsoever
I was able to short STEN (very small position) and am looking for it to hit $3ish before I cover. I wanted to jump on SWC but no shares were available. Although its a big capper, DHI has been a fantastic short- beautiful double top just under $18.
do you really think it will hit $3?
I have a short position @ $4.4
Wassup Tim, don’t know if you know, but theres a company called Sykes Enterprises. Dont know anything about it, just thought it was kinda funny. Keep up the good posts. Peace.
yah i know SYKE, i use to want to buy shares to make it look like insider buying…lol
I think it will get down to $3.5 at least although $3 is not crazy.
Sykes Ent.– If I remember correctly I believe he recommended it on last years CNBC Million Dollar challenge and it was a nice short squeeze.
To everyone here with browser / page layout issues, please contact me directly at ADMIN@TIMOTHYSYKES.COM with site issues and your browser info (name and version number). We’re working on making TimothySykes.com more IE6 friendly.
Hey Tim, what are your thoughts on CPST?
i talk about CPST in the post!
Today might be your day Tim. (COIN)
no COIN available at TOS!
Getting ready for my Morning buy of Coin……and then 10 minute dump.
your little morning COIN buy pattern worked cuz the shorts were being squeezed during the runup…now that the stock is on th flip side, do not be fooled into thinking its a sustainable pattern. trust me, i am the pattern master, i’ve tried them all
coin down 0.69 in afterhours/pre-open
awesome, found some COINW to short, just gotta keep trying, sometimes shares open up
tim, did you reserve shares or do you actually have a stake in shorting coinw right now? can you highlight the difference over COIN in shorting COINW?
You have to LOVE COIN!!! play the game folks coming on Timmy!!
Tim- bout 600 shares at $15. 50…… I haven’t sold yet but will soon
I also bout TMA- 4000 at $1.39 despite what you said- already up…..
oh don’t get me wrong, u can have plenty of gains buying other patterns, u also just risk disaster. TMA could stop trading, COIN could go in a multi-$ plunge. but posting your entries and exits is meaningless…these are lesser reliable patterns and people lie (nobody on Elitetrader loses $ LOL)….
just reserved the COINW shares, gotta wait and see if todays the day or not
understandable tim—— I know the risk….. but it’s the reward I am after.. besides both stock will be out my portfolio before you can respond…
Shorted 125 COINW at $12.45, damn partial fill, waiting on my 175 other shares
a couple of mistakes by thinkorswim chat window guys, some correcting, some commission free trades and presto I’m short 300 COINW at $12.345. i can’t say it enough, those guys rock!
Hey Tim can you see live future prices on TOS?
I am out of COIN- at 16.75- but TMA I am still holding- this one is aiming for the stars…..
i dunno, i dont care about futures, i stick to the niches i know, overnight i can’t but help check cme.com to watch the futures
COIN IS THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ITS GOING TO 25!!!!!!! WATCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
why did you close to short COIN today? fading volume? being flat since yesterday??
those of u emailing me why i’m short COINW–first of all its a play on COIN, i just couldnt find any COIN shares to short. yes i, and u, should usually wait til the afternoon to short these runners, but the spread on COINW (usually 25 cents) and the $1.5 morning surge off its low on COIN (which still only made it slightly positive on the day) added to the fact that the run ended just below yesterday top (double-top?) all leads me to believe i want to be short rather than later (even if it held those gains, it’d still be a bad day for the momentum folks because with this strong a breakout, the stock should be up $1-2 daily) (if it doesnt hold its gains, it’ll be down on the day–students of my DVD know to short on the first down day–so monday theoretically should be ugly). so i’m a bit early–as usual–but my 300 shares at 12.35 make it only a $4k-ish position, so i can afford to hold a bit.
30 min into the trade COIN has cracked back negative on the day, COINW is trading at 11.80 x 12.20 (ridiculous 40 cent spread) and I’m up $150 or os (if i cover at the bid, which i’d probly only get a partial fill anyway, and i want a bigger $ gain)
sorry - why did you choose*
Plenty of COIN available to short at scottrade
hey, scottrade finally has some shares to short, welcome to the party!
coinw, coin, coinz, u can’t miss, just wish i had those pics of their crappy operation to rub some salt in the wound
Hey Tim do you know how to find out when coin reports earnings?? thx..
coin is looking very weak by the way after bouncing off 17 again…. shorts r going to have a ball with this thing today and into next week………..been waiting all week for this one!!!!!!!!!!!
Tim, since you along with others shorted COIN, COINW, COINZ whatever they got, it now time to post COIN’s articles and post you mentioned yesterday?
oh baby up $250 on my COINW short right now, TIM $16.3k
i hope COIN reports ASAP, maybe we can get a SEED-like report!
Testing $16…..
nice! hold it.. u havent seen nothing yet
YOU BEEN BEAR TRAPPED LEARN TO VIEW LEVEL 2 PLZ
According to my level II, no large buyers at $16..
Great! Tim- can’t wait until you get to the 25k mark- I am routing for you…. after my large gain on TMA I will be there shortley….
COIN tanking PERFECTLY, wow my timing was actualy good for once, now the question is do i hold or take my 10% profits? hmmmmmmmmmmmm, good problem to have
wow…
I really wish my broker had shares
first time they havent come through for me
maybe monday
HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK
HELLO CORNZMASTER
I’m out at $11.34…probly too early, but I just don’t trust COIN, every dip has been followed by a surge, this time could be different by only a 50/50 chance, not good enough for me. $300 profit and an 8% gain in 2 hours IS good enough for me…TIM $16.4k…lesson taught…time to catch up on this week’s emails