Housing Ain’t Bottoming, You’re All Gonna Be Poor!
Posted by Timothy Sykes on Mon 28th of Jul, 2008 11:24:31 AM
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I just had to link to this great post from Barry Ritholz on housing (Click HERE to read it). I truly hope it does play out like that cuz all the dumb money really deserves to be punished…justice must be served. And, considering the investments already made by folks leveraged to the hilt, that justice could turn out to be very cruel very shortly. (HERE’s another good post of how bad it is)
Who knows what’s actually gonna happen, it’s a guessing game–all we know is that in the end, whoever correctly guesses bullish or bearish before any rebound or crash is gonna be honored to death, no matter that they have a 50% chance of being right and even if they make a few more right calls, the sample size of their “genius” is so small it’s like calling someone in a casino who correctly bets on black five or six times in a row a genius. Obviously no sane person would call a degenerate gambler that, but this is finance baby, an industry that is so backwards, it’s gonna take me decades to get everyone to realize how corrupt it all is & how you can profit form it (yet another reason to wipe ‘em all out).
Don’t even get me started on how much better PennyStocking is, predictability- and credibility-wise (now THIS is a useful sample set), we’ll save that topic for random rants to be posted over the next decade…for now, just know–as I’ve also been advised by several bigtimers–don’t even think about trying to predict the market/economic/housing bottom, we’re paying for waaaaaay too many sins of the past. Just play it safe with ALL your trades and investments and make it through this deleveraging/credit unwinding, profiting from individual ideal plays whenever they decide to pop up…
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TIM Trades
View All| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | IIJI | $2,79 | $2.95 | $442 |
| Nov 6 | CVI | $4.42 | $4.70 | $530 |
| Nov 5 | MECA | $3.68 | $3.95 | $490 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $5.18 | $4.94 | $472 |
| Nov 4 | CVI | $4.83 | $5.01 | $333 |
| Nov 3 | NAK | $3.30 | $3.37 | $157 |
| Oct 31 | IDAE | $2.18 | $2.18 | $20 |
| Oct 30 | HSNI | $7.37 | $7.86 | $561 |
| Oct 29 | EVC | $1.97 | $2.70 | $1439 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.92 | $7.30 | $540 |
| Oct 28 | HSNI | $6.20 | $6.00 | $320 |
Total: $34,399 (177%)
as a realtor, i can say it’s the biggest mess i hope to ever encounter in the housing market. Everything you do is to help people from going to foreclosure… not to help people find their dream home, or anything positive…. it’s a very sad time for real estate. Wall Streeters fucked it up for everybody….whats new?
I dont think you can blame it on the wall streeters 100%. What about the crooked appraisers? The house cant sell at that price if it doesnt appraise at that value. Oh wait its the damn agents that bribe them to appraise for that price so they can get 3% of 1 mil vs half a mil. You and your paycheck sure enjoyed the run-up. I just dont agree with agents getting 6% of my equity. I suppose alot of others see it my way also since help u sale is getting pretty big.
its everyone’s fault and everyone’s gonna pay
looks like we’re getting a good run up on USS. need it to go above 5 to short on scot
USS has a boner.
is this thing, USS, going to test resist at 7? This is looking like a short squeeze?
The crooked mortgage brokers/lenders same as the automobile business…They are all crooks and scams.
There are less than 300,000 shares short, and it hasn’t been on the Naked Short List since around mid June, so it’s not likely a short squeeze. There are large contract rumors circulating however; and low crude prices make USS attractive to new buyers.
Has anyone seen OVEN today?
Good to know Oracle. Was, kinda,, hoping,,,, for a short squeeze to get this thing up there… oh well… What would those contract rumors be. I know on the 24th GD announced it is building a ship for them. delivery 2009.
To be honest the housing crisis is grossly over hyped. If you live anywhere not in the top 5 major cities in the US your housing market is probably not that bad.
USS is losing steam. Possible short into the close or wait for tomorrow? What you think Timmay?
I think this is its 3rd big green candle day if it holds.
USS go go go get above 5….
OVEN is getting week…
It should go to 5.00 man…so can short it for tomorrow.
This could get nasty. I’m just sitting back enjoying the show!
USS stumbled 30 cents off a couple big sellers. looks like it is trying to fight back
You’re going to have to wait for the next bank to report 10 billion loss for the quarter for the markets to go up.
Government is out of hat tricks. As you can see the news of the housing bailout has already long been baked in FNM and FRE.
Get ready for hell! The US is going to be in a world of hurt when the ARMS readjust tumbling the housing market. Chain reaction will be felt throughout the banking world making dozens and even hundreds more banks insolvent.
BSC had a book value of 85 and they sold out for $2 a share. HAHA. You think these assholes are telling you the truth.
Oh, what’s this ,another DOW down 200 point day. Why is OIL up today if economy is slowing and we’re in a severe recession? It’s still near 125. As I tell you day in and day out OIL will touch 150 before end of year. There isn’t going to be any interest rate hikes even though we need minimum 3 before end of year. Soros said it best when he said if you raise your rates your screwed and if you don’t you’re equally screwed. Only way to stop oil is to raise rates atleast 2 full percentage points. You do this you can put a dagger in the economy. OUCH!!!! Crooked banking institutions along with Mr. Greenie caused this big mess.
DOW under 10K
OIL above 150
both by end of year.
This housing crash is going to set the hyperinflation train in motion sending interest rates to double digits within the next 2 years. Housing market is dead for the next decade.
Con artist realtors were on TV up till last year telling stupid fucks that the appreciation in homes will continue at 20% forever.
Short financials and long energy is still the trade of champions.
I expect housing nationwide to go down another 15% and in places like Los Angeles you’ll see another 30% drop in the next year.
ARMS adjust in another 2 months. You have to be Bill Gates to even get a loan. Add to that no one has any money left. Interest rates for used cars are running at 9%. Chrysler killed lease program because they don’t want the cars coming back to them.
You haven’t seen anything yet my friends. Imagine recovering from the worst hangover you’ve been in. This is how the economy will feel by end of 09.
Hundreds of billions more writedowns to be announced when more homeowners go belly up. Things in the housing market aren’t as liquid as the stock market so it takes months to see the effects of the damage.
I might book my profit even if it is just 50+ bucks and sell it in a few minutes…You never know with this kind of stock…
And OVEN is breaking down.
Shorted 200 shares of VISN at 22.64 cause it wasn’t able to hold to friday gains, placed a stop at 23.5ish and not planning to take profits until it gives back a big chunk of Friday’s gain. Looks like worst case I loose a couple hundred, best case I make 800. trying to knock into my head to only get to trades with a good risk-reward ratio.
Working so far
USS looks like it lost its momentum for the day. it could prove me wrong and rally late but it is looking like a lazy afternoon fade.
Hey Tim! How did shooting go for your Music Video on Saturday!?
OVEN I papertraded today (learning out loud!). Buy @ 5.20, sold at 5.97 on a stop. Pushed up my stops at the price ran up, then stopped out when it stalled.
What’s baking in that oven?
I just opened an account with TOS and I must tell you seems confusing. I have an account with tradeking at scottrade. Those 2 seem much easier to understand. Does anyone have any suggestions on this TOS?
Thanks in advance
Sold FFGO @.0005….profit of $391 after commissions.
I jumped on this one @.0001….not a bad call huh.
Best of all…all verified by Covestor and recorded on my website www.collegepennystocks.com.
My hail mary play paid off big.
@vo did you go short on the weekness?
I got caught in the VISN gap & trap but got out quickly, not getting dinged too badly, once again proving I am the worst TIMAlert trader.
SHorted 200 shares of ABMD at 19.23, looked like a probable double top that apparently is being confirmed by a bearish engulfment pattern. Will hold overnight unless it spikes before the close.
Shorted 200 shares VISN at 22.64, appears like the first down day after irrational run-up. Also planning to hold overnight unless it closes on strenght.
I am an amateur Technical Trader, any more seasoned technical guy who can tell me that I am misreading these stocks is welcomed (and encouraged) to say so.
Marc: It takes a couple weeks to figure TOS out, but it’s worth it. Their customer service is awesome, and they fund accounts quickly.
I use their desktop trading software. The platform is awesome and just takes a bit to figure out.
I used Ameritrade before and they won’t let you be a margin account person unless you’re rich. And, Zecco lost my application 3 times in one week. Even though I faxed it to them and got conformation every time.
TOS truly takes the cake if you are trading with only a few thousand.
I’m on TD Ameritrade trading with 10K (don’t consider that rich) and they let me trade on margin. The only bummer with them is that they won’t let me short OTC’s. Tried it last week and got rejected with an explanation.
I like your VISN short. Now that is a solid technical trade. You shorted as it turned red after a gap up.
TGC getting ready for a momo ride back up on climbing oil prices.
PDO and ROYL…get in early.
shorty - careful holding VISN for too long - it’s still holding a breakout on a weekly chart - and it looks like an earnings play - position traders might be buying that based on weekly charts. Probably down today due to market being down.
bot VNDA today, starting a little early…should be a good short sqeeze nexxt few days
What’s with PDO, just broke down 13.75 support, would consider shorting it if it was not because the big spread and that superman scares the shit out of me since he beat me up last time I short his boy.
Thanks for the USS tip on timalerts… made some bux (also TGC was nice to me)
…long on both, held USS overnight.
Thks Alex, I have never taken weekly charts into account, thought most traders don’t, and that that lack of interest by itself made them irrelevant. Hope I am not wrong.
If you usually use weekly charts, would appreciate if you can tell us a little about how you interrelate it with daily and intraday charts.
About the earnings play, I think it is important not to be in a stock before earnings are released (unpredictable market response) but in this case, earnings came in the morning and the markets have given their verdict, which can be readed from the charts.
Cheers
just got a message from scottrade that they have put me in day trader’s list. Now they are asking me to deposit 25K into my account.
Does TOS allow you to do day trading?
No long short, no us brokers does.
You call scottrade tell them that you didn’t knew, that you are sorry… blah…blah.
If they are like IB, they will be able to remove your trading restriction, but you can only ask for this pardon once every 6 months.
As I have said before, I recommend to have 2 accounts so you can offset trades without incurring on PDT.
Shorty - weekly charts don’t matter at all for daytrades, don’t matter too much for swing trades (2-3 days) but matter a lot for longer position trades (weeks to months). Weekly charts are what position traders are primarily using. They look for breakouts or breakdowns on weekly charts just like you might be doing on daily charts. If they find a breakout, they might just look at daily charts to find ideal entry points, just as swing traders look at intraday charts. Like today if you were a position trader you might have looks at VISN daily chart, saw that it was down for the day along with a down market and decided to buy at the close, or at the open tomorrow. Be careful, if the market has a good day VISN might have a good 10% or more gain in a day.
Don’t read into the charts too much. Think outside the box sometime.
Alex is right about VISN. If you follow the last earnings pattern the stock never went down after great earnings. It also held up like a champ today. The short was good on an intraday basis only. Who knows what it does tomorrow? Never short strength in a weak market as a rule of thumb. Didn’t Sykes teach you guys to short stocks on fluff news and avoid earnings plays.
Just gave another look to the abmd chart and realize there is no bearish engulfing pattern, so actually I think I shouldn’t have stayed short on that one overnight.
I must have been looking other chart or something…. shame on me.
I was looking at the 30 min chart… oh boy…… I better hold on tight and wake up early tomorrow……
Tommy, Bryan (author of Technical Trading using multiple timeframes), Rev Shark, Sykes and technical analysis of stock trends (usually referred to as the technical analysis bible), all say that spikes in a downtrending stock/market should be considered as potential shorts.
Unless I have completely misread Sykes. He is on board with leaving earnings alone and then go to the charts to see what is the market reaction and decide whether to act based on that action. At least, that is what Shark and Brian tell.
Either way I think this approach makes more sense that being around guessing if fundamentals have or have not been incorporated into prices or whether they are going to be incorporated at all. Listen to what the market IS doing, not to yourself thinking what it SHOULD be doing.
New bank failures over the weekend certainly were not helping matters, after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. seized control of First Heritage Bank of California and First National Bank of Nevada.
We’ve seen the bottom. How many times have we heard that? I remember BSC saying that when shares of their stock were at $100.
Some butt monkey was advising people to buy BAC over 32 last week. Thanks assclown. Why didn’t you tell people this at 18 and not after it doubled in 3 days to 34.
Paulson will offer guidance for the development of the covered bond market in the United States as an alternative method for financing home mortgages.
Good luck with that buddy. Just let the crash take its course. If you Sykes guru traders are looking to buy homes with your million in profits I’d hold off for atleast a year.
Welcome to the real world normal, where people work to make a living.