Jim Cramer 2013 Prediction Performance Roundup

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Interesting guest post from a new trading challenge student…I’ve written HERE and HERE on Jim Cramer, his “strategy” and his usefulness as a teacher…he also makes a brief appearance in this great video I did:

Here’s how he did in 2013, the year I created 2 millionaire students, featured on the frontpage of CNNMoney HERE, was up 66% in personal trading performance and had a winning percentage of roughly 80%, every trade fully detailed and available to learn from.

A lot of people tune in to Mad Money with Jim Cramer in order to see which stocks they should “buy buy buy” or “sell sell sell.” Well, I thought it would be kind of fun to go back to the beginning of 2013 and see just how his picks have done in the past 12 months. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is up nearly 30% this year, so in order for his stock to have been a good pick, it must have returned more than that.

Here are his predictions, word for word, followed by how they performed:

Prediction Number 10:

For beginners, Cramer predicts a break-up of Manitowoc Co. into separate construction and foodservice equipment companies. He said Manitowoc’s construction company will operate more efficiently as a stand-alone business in the wake of infrastructure improvements in China and rebuilding efforts in the Northeast from Hurricane Sandy. The foodservice operations will benefit from middle class growth abroad. The two units together do not make logistical sense, he said.

This stock did not break up, but it is up 50%, so we’ll give this one to Cramer.

Prediction Number 9:

Cramer also targeted New Brunswick, N.J. healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson Inc. as a breakup candidate. He believes J&J has become too unwieldy for its own good and should split into consumer products, medical devices and a pharmaceutical businesses. Cramer cited Covdien plc, which split itself in half in December 2011, as an example of an efficient breakup.

The stock is up 30%, in line with the market so not really a good pick. It also has not split up yet, although there are still people that think they should.

Prediction Number 8:

His final break up candidate is New York energy company Hess Corp. Cramer said Hess should split its energy exploration and production assets from its refining and marketing operations. The raw oil and gas assets of Hess would be worth more without the added expense of running its refining business, he noted.

This company is up 56% and did in fact split off some of their business units.

Cramer is now 2 for 3.

Prediction Number 7:

Moving on to likely acquisitions in 2013, Cramer predicted a purchase of Taylor, Mich.-based home improvement retailer Masco Corp. by Deerfield, Ill., home security products company Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc. Fortune will be looking for a weaker, yet synergistic player to capitalize on recovery efforts again after the Northeast’s severe weather, Cramer said.

Masco was not purchased by fortune and is roughly in line with the market with a 35% return.

Prediction Number 6:

Likewise, Cramer predicted that Goleta, Ga. footwear and apparel company Decker’s Outdoor Corp. will be bought by counterpart V.F. Corp. He said that the buyer in this case would be able to better promote and strengthen the target’s brands for better results.

While Deckers may not have been bought out, it is up more than 100% this year, so I’m giving Cramer a win on this one too.

Cramer is now 3 for 5

Prediction Number 5:

Organic food retailer Hain Celestial Group Inc., of Melville, N.Y., may be bought by another food company to copy on the success of Austin, Texas Whole Foods Market Inc., which Cramer says has reached capacity.

Hain is up 65% this year. It was not purchased by another company, but actually made some small acquisitions itself. Still, I’ll give this one to Cramer since it outperformed the market by about 35%.

Prediction Number 4:

Cramer cited Union, N.J. retail store chain Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. as a buyout candidate in the new year, expressing concerns about the company’s ability to service its debt in coming quarters and noting a 21.5% fall in its stock price since June.

Bed Bath & Beyond was not bought out and only outperformed the market by about 10%, so I’m not giving this one to Cramer, even though it wasn’t a horrible pick.

Cramer is now 4 for 7.

Prediction Number 3:

Cramer also sees Arlington, Va. munitions company Alliant Techsystems Inc. in the crosshairs for an acquisition, for it has won several lucrative contracts with the Defense Department and owns prime technology. Cramer says Alliant’s stock, which currently trades around $61.12 per share, has been constrained because of possible budget cuts by the U.S. military.

Alliant has completed acquisitions, with the most recent coming in November. The stock is up 97% this year, definitely a win for Cramer.

Prediction Number 2:

Meanwhile, labor safety equipment business Mine Safety Appliances Co. is an attractive target, Cramer said. He pointed to Dupont, Honeywell International Inc. and 3M Co. as logical buyer for this company because of accretive synergies they will be able to reap.

MSA was not bought out and is only up 20% this year, a definite loser for Cramer.

Prediction Number 1:

Finally, Cramer predicted an auction for information processing and software services company DST Systems Inc.

DST was not bought out but is up 50%, so I’ll give Cramer a win on this one as well.

Cramer ends with a 6 out of 10 record. Not great but not horrible either. Tim has better odds ;)

Posted in Guessing Games, Jim Cramer

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  • stockman

    what a crock..biased judgement on your part. you should have given him the 2 stocks that outperformed the market as well… just because they “only” beat by 5 and 10 percent is no reason to call them losers… all in all, 8 out of 10, excellent and even the two “losers” were up 30% and 20%… so really Cramer had an outstanding year. when his worst stock is up 20% and the best is up 100%, there is no question abut it… arguably he is 9 out of 10 and possibly 10 out of 10.

  • http://www.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    This was a guest post done by one of my students, I had nothing to do with it…and if you judge Cramer based on ALL his picks, he’s right 35-40% of the time compared to my 75-80%…this is why I create millionaires and his show ratings are at all-time lows

  • mike

    Cramer wins on this one….. I love your trading Tim, but this shows how uneducated your students are…..