CHATROOM

Does TIMalerts Influence Stock Prices?

March 16, 2010 at 3:35 pm
by Timothy Sykes

Watch these 7 free video lessons on how I became a millionaire

Thanks to my success of turning $12,415 into $123,000ish the past 2 years, being the #1 ranked trader out of 45,000 on Covestor (I bring it up not to brag but to differnetiate myself from all the scammers out there who lieeee about their “success”) and the thousands of happy TIMalert subscribers and now hundreds of happy PennyStocking Silver subscribers, I get this question every now and then…

Now I can see why some people might think this, given my 76% winning percentage on 300+ trades (see this Academic Study), but please allow me to refute their assumptions with facts:

1. As I answered in this long answer on my new FAQ page, my influence is greatly exaggerated, especially by penny stock promoters who love trying to discredit me so I don’t screw up their profitable little game of misinformation…the truth is the only broker who had shares to short of Zannett Inc. (ZANE) the other day when I had to cover my short due to getting squeezed is Sogotrade and despite my 1,500+ TIMalert subscribers only 400 of whom bother opening their emails, I have referred exactly 7 people to Sogotrade…add on a few more and I probly have a dozen or so TIMalert subscribers trading there, highly doubtful they were all short alongside me when the spike happened.

2. When I did get squeezed on ZANE at 2.78ish (it’s backing down nicely now at 2.60ish and I’d short if I could find shares), the stock spiked so quickly during/after my cover, I couldn’t even send out the alert fast enough to PennyStocking Silver subscriber who get my trade alerts via IM…the latest reason why people should learn from my instructional DVD packages so they can anticipate moves and my trades ahead of time…to be fair, several TIMalert subscribers, all of whom have studied PennyStocking Part Deux religiously, did beat me on the exit…which is gooood!

3. ZANE traded $16 million for the day I got squeezed, there is no way me and my dozen or so subscribers who have Sogotrade influenced the price at all…and when I bought late day, the stock spiked because it was at a key inflection point, where shorts get squeezed and momentum traders buy…I USUALLY trade at these key inflection points so whether I’m right or wrong these stocks are gonna move…not to mention we’re trading the most volatile stocks in the entire stock market….the SAME kind of spike happened the next day, from 3.10 to 3.40, even though I was no longer in the stock.

4. My biggest wins come on stocks where there are VERY few shares to short (hence why I push my 10 instructional DVD packages so hard to prepare my students to learn how to anticipate these patterns and reserve shares ahead of time…see exhibit A NXT Nutritionals Holdings Inc. (NXTH)…the CEO might publicly blame me for the stock’s fall, but during their first promotional mailer back in late 2009, I trashed the company over their horrific SEC filings and hyperbolic mailer, but I couldn’t find one share to short….when I did find shares to short after the company’s February promotional mailer, TIMalert subscribers and I cleaned up, profiting $22,000+ in a mere few hours, but the stock dropped EXACTLY the same way it did during its last promotional mailer when we couldn’t find any shares to short….not to mention I covered just under $2/share and yet when I sent out my buy to cover alert, the stock didn’t rebound at all…and I should’ve held longer consider while profiting nicely from shorting at $3.19 down to $1.94ish is good, the current price of 65 cents/share is better….aka the company is a piece of trash and it would’ve dropped 80% with or without me….exhibit B when I shorted similarly promotional mailered Americas Energy Company (AENY) and the stock dropped 42% over a few days, I NAILED that chart pattern, but very few other TIMalert subscribers found shares to short.

5. When I do buy, the haters say I pump up the stock and so I should have big wins, right? Nope, I should probly quit buying altogether because the data clearly shows other than a few big wins in correctly predicting earnings breakouts in stocks like Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA) and Diedrich Coffee (DDRX), my buys usually perform miserably.

6. On Friday, ZANE spiked in the afternoon from 3.10 to 3.40ish with the SAME kind of volume spike as on Thursday when I bought at $3.10 and it also spiked to $3.40ish within the next 30 minutes…it’s called a key inflection point…ya know, the kind of important price level I discuss above and in ALL 10 instructional DVD packages….hmmmm why is this stock spiking the SAME way when there’s no TIMalert (Friday) as compared to when there is (Thursday)…both times the rallies failed although Friday’s drop (when there was no TIMalert invovled…this is counter-intuitive, if TIMalerts influenced prices, the drop in the hour AFTER the alleged influencing should be greater since it’s alleged that the entire spike was caused by TIMalerts) was greater:

zanespike

CONCLUSION: Because TIMalerts doesn’t affect the stock price, this is how these stocks trade at key inflection points, especially in the early morning and late afternoon periods…and just to make everyone happy I trade more liquid stocks and have been holding longer too.

People, TIMalerts is not meant to be traded off of, it’s meant to be for educational purposes only…and as the number of TIMalert subscribers has grown, I have by and large traded more liquid stocks so as to avoid these kinds of frustrating accusations.

Let this be a lesson never to attack the #1 most transparent trader in the world…all my trades are verified where I am #1 out of 45,000+ on Covestor, my strategy is detailed in blogs, interviews, DVDs, newsletters–all for you all to learn and anticipate my trades and all my entries/exits/profit goals/mental stop losses are all spelled out for everyone in watchlists and trading alerts.

In short, haters BRING IT ON, I EAT ASSUMPTIONS FOR BREAKFAST, LUNCH AND DINNER…THERE’S A LOT OF THEM SO THAT’S WHY I’VE GIANED SO MUCH WEIGHT…YES “THE SINGLE DUMBEST PERSON IN FINANCE” JIM VAN MEERTEN I’M TALKING TO YOU OLD MAN…the guy accuses me of fraud and manipulation without ANY evidence whatsoever before Motley Fool deletes his post…then perhaps sobering up from too much Viagra, the guy deletes his post from his own blog…resorting to saying I make up lies and that the commenters were abusive (they weren’t, and bloggers have cool tools where we can actually delete coments and not the posts…yes, it’s a pretty amazing world, Jim’s lies dig his own grave, literally and figuratively)…Jim, I’m still waiting for you to tell me exactly what lies I made up, what stocks I manipulated and more importantly, I asked you whether you gave the stock promoters approval to use your name on their absurd promotional mailer for NXTH…if not, why do you attack me and not them? You claim you weren’t compensated, but your actions say otherwise…for those of you have no idea what I’m talking about, see this post and listen to the free podcast included in it…you’ll learn to laugh at/cherish pure financial ignorance.

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  • jay

    “That’s why I’ve gained so much weight.” Haha great comment.

  • Salami

    Tim I like your site, and I like ever thing you have done and I am not attacking you in any way. I have most of your DVD’s and have used your alerts and have followed you since the beginning of your site. I am not bashing you in anyway but imo you need to be a little more transparent with yourself and your followers on this issue. Frankly I am a bit insulted that you would not be open about this because it’s completely and utterly obvious. If a person starts an alert subscription for say real stocks in the $20 to $50 range with market caps of 1 billion to 20 billion and they have say 500 subs each with $10-25k, these people will influence the price of a stock by $.10-.20 easily each time they trade. I know because I have used such services. Now if you take your scenario where you have 1600 subs, and say half, or even a third trade the same stock that you trade on any given day (which wouldn’t make sense in and of itself because these people are paying $50 to $100 for your service a month which isn’t a lot, but is something) these people will influence the price of the stock. For instance in the case of ZANE or a SINO like the last few days these stocks have less than $10-30 million market caps. If you have 400 subs trading a stock, which is very conservative, and each sub has only $3500 in their accounts which is also very conservative and most likely not realistic because some have $25k or even several hundred thousand, they will bring $1.4 million of volume into the stock on the same side as you. 1.4 million/25million is = 5.6% of the total volume that trades through a stock and as I said this is very conservative, you probably have more like half your subs trading each stock depending on if they can find shares to short (since a lot have thinkorswim and thinkorswim has been lame lately) or if they actually are at there computer when you send and alert. You can not deny that if your subs trade 5.6% of the total volume on a stock, they will increase the price. For instance yesterday on ZANE a 300 share short decreased the price by on average .03 cents. That means your buy alone decreased the price by much more than that that amount and your subs definitely caused a drop because this is a low float stock. Even if you just took the handful of people that claimed they made money and posted on your site, and added up there shares, you still would move the stock at least .10 but probably much more. When your subs got in and shorted for instance $14000000 I guarantee you influenced the price. I could take any chart of any stock that you traded and know exactly when you sent and alert because the pop or drop starts at the exact second you send your alert and these aren’t normal breakouts or break downs. A normal breakout might be $.20 when a stock breaks our or breaks down and you are in 90% of the time the stock moves double that. External traders (non tim alerts subs) definitely influence the price of these stocks but not until your subs push the price up or down first in most cases. Yes stocks pop or drop when they break key inflection points but the whole world doesn’t know when you send you alerts out. The whole world does know when their screener’s light up with unusual volume or a dramatic price increase/decrease and then they jump in your pick and push the stock further.

    You will probably bash me or flame me, or tell me I am a retard and thats fine, but this has been bugging me and I had to get it out there just for the sure principal. It’s not bad that you influence the stock. You are a trader and you make people money which is great but you should be honest.
    If you want to prove your subscribers don’t influence the price then start a website which will allow your subs to choose which stock they traded and how many shares they traded.

  • http://www.timothysykes.com Anonymous

    tired of bashing people using these big #s…u just need to watch the price action…i shorted and bought to cover SINO today and the stock didnt budge…especially when i bought to cover…u have to understand that marketcap doesnt matter, volume matters some but remember I TURNED $12K INTO $2 MILLION ONCE BEFORE WHEN NOBODY WAS WATCHING… but here’s some questions

    1.) my picks have obviously been successful, why arent more subscribers trading now that they can see what i do day in day out?

    2.) why haven’t i been getting more successful on buying breakouts when my subscribers should all be able to buy no matter their broker?

    3.) why are there still shares to short of these companies when all my subscribers should be trading them?

    truth is hardly any of my subscribers trade, let alone open their emails…timanswers has a staggering 150 people asking questions, 130 people average in the timalerts chatroom.

    i agree if i get too big, this would be troublesome, but the good news is too many dont get it, they refuse to get my dvds and learn and the patterns are exact same as the past decade

    oh thats right, the patterns havent changed at all! if my subscribers were trading these stocks, wouldn’t the patterns evolve? NOPE. case closed

  • http://www.timothysykes.com Anonymous

    PS several subscribers like to trade against me which i dont encourage but they act as a balancing force…

    PPS the vast majority of my subscribers have accounts under $10,000–thats what penny stocks are for–poor people!

  • WhateverTimmy

    Tim, if you were really all about “educating” people, there would be absolutely no reason to send out real time alerts… you could delay these alerts, send them out with level 2 video capture etc, and people could relive the realtime price action of a stock at the time you traded… Just like every other bafoon who posts their trades via twitter etc, your real time alerts serves only 3 purposes;
    1/ to generate revenues from alerts
    2/ to get as many people as possible to follow your trade.
    3/ to boost your ego to make up for something lacking in your manhood

    p.s. I highly doubt your subs trade against intentionally, rather they find themselves in the wrong stock, the wrong way and at the wrong time.

    p.p.s. with regards to your earlier post, why do you imply you were the only person who made money during the tech bubble? And by your own self admission, it was largely all based on luck – throwing money at a moving stock and hoping for the best.

  • curtly

    For a start, point 1 is extremely misleading…

    1/ TOS had shares, I have 3k of them still short.
    2/ Email openings not relevant, I never open your emails but get your alerts via text/IM
    3/ What do your referrals to Sogo have to do with it? If I am not mistaken, you were referred to Sogo a few months back by one of your subs because of good share availability. You think the only people who use Sogo are those who you referred?
    4/I can name more than 12 of your subs in chat alone (out of 100 odd that are there) that traded ZANE, let alone many many others who do not visit your chat room.

    I will not go on, discrediting just one of your points is enough.

  • http://www.timothysykes.com Anonymous

    1.) when i first started blogging there were NO real time alerts…i would detail trades after the fact…i did realtime alerts to help educate based on what the readers demanded

    2.) u think i want to influence prices? unlike stock promoters, i dont get paid by companies or anyone other than subscribers…all i want to do is teach people how I trade

    3.) screw my ego that was so 2003

    4.) i was lucky to stumble upon a reliable pattern during the bubble, the pattern itself was not luck, that pattern exists today too…get it straight

  • http://www.timothysykes.com Anonymous

    1.) u probly had all the shares from thinkorswim, i point out sogotrade is the only one with tons of shares aka thats the only that matters in this argument

    2.) email opens are relevant, very few people will trade a stock without reasoning, text/IM is nice but that accounts ofr only a small percentage of my alert subscribers

    3.) i said probly a dozen or so people might have sogo, maybe 2 dozen, doenst matter, the damn stock traded $16 million worth the other day, only morons think i can influence a $16 million traded stock

    4.) ok call it 2 dozen, who cares….this is a liquid stock and not everyone is trading exactly with my alerts…u prove that yourself by still holding your shares short

  • Anonymous

    …the ignorance continues. I think the only people who argue with you about influencing the stock price have been trading less than 6 months. Breakouts were traded before by tape readers WAY before electronic platforms were invented. These charts have been the same for 100 years

  • Bo$$aholic

    Why are you guys so dumb? Tim Sykes is a bo$$!!!