http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/ How To Trade Penny Stocks Without The Stock Promoter BS Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:11:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-161059 sentimentArb Thu, 07 Jul 2011 03:21:00 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-161059 In a market with such a high degree of liquidity and transparency, my prior (in the Bayesian sense) is that the trade is not a pure arbitrage.  Rather, the risks are entirely in the tail and therefore cannot be measured with confidence. As such, a kind of "Winner's Curse" applies - whoever loads up on this trade has likely underestimated the risk.  In a market with such a high degree of liquidity and transparency, my prior (in the Bayesian sense) is that the trade is not a pure arbitrage.  Rather, the risks are entirely in the tail and therefore cannot be measured with confidence. As such, a kind of “Winner’s Curse” applies – whoever loads up on this trade has likely underestimated the risk. 

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-161058 sentimentArb Thu, 07 Jul 2011 02:44:00 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-161058 There's obviously basis risk in the Fed Fund futures hedge. Also, since the trade has a skinny margin, you are probably very heavily leveraged - prospective margin calls may be onerous, to say the least.  There’s obviously basis risk in the Fed Fund futures hedge. Also, since the trade has a skinny margin, you are probably very heavily leveraged – prospective margin calls may be onerous, to say the least. 

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-39215 Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due: Doug Kass, The Hedge Fund Manager Who Called The Bottom | TIM - Timothy Sykes Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:15:43 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-39215 [...] the spirit of Neal Berger, the hedge fund manager who inadvertently called the market top, I give you Doug Kass (remember I did a quick interview with him HERE?) the hedge fund manager who [...] [...] the spirit of Neal Berger, the hedge fund manager who inadvertently called the market top, I give you Doug Kass (remember I did a quick interview with him HERE?) the hedge fund manager who [...]

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-82843 Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due: Doug Kass, The Hedge Fund Manager Who Called The Bottom | TIM - Timothy Sykes Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:15:43 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-82843 [...] the spirit of Neal Berger, the hedge fund manager who inadvertently called the market top, I give you Doug Kass (remember I did a quick interview with him HERE?) the hedge fund manager who [...] [...] the spirit of Neal Berger, the hedge fund manager who inadvertently called the market top, I give you Doug Kass (remember I did a quick interview with him HERE?) the hedge fund manager who [...]

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-39214 :( Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:32:12 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-39214 Sounds like about as much of arbitrage as a basis trade, and that worked out well for everyone... Sounds like about as much of arbitrage as a basis trade, and that worked out well for everyone…

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-82842 :( Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:32:12 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-82842 Sounds like about as much of arbitrage as a basis trade, and that worked out well for everyone... Sounds like about as much of arbitrage as a basis trade, and that worked out well for everyone…

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-39213 Brent Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:48:31 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-39213 Thanks very much for correcting me. I (falsely) assumed that you couldn't get a term repo that matched the maturity of the T-bill. Very interesting. Thanks very much for correcting me. I (falsely) assumed that you couldn’t get a term repo that matched the maturity of the T-bill. Very interesting.

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-82841 Brent Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:48:31 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-82841 Thanks very much for correcting me. I (falsely) assumed that you couldn't get a term repo that matched the maturity of the T-bill. Very interesting. Thanks very much for correcting me. I (falsely) assumed that you couldn’t get a term repo that matched the maturity of the T-bill. Very interesting.

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-39212 Timothy Sykes Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:46:40 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-39212 haha yes the Berger strikes back! haha yes the Berger strikes back!

]]> http://www.timothysykes.com/2009/04/meet-neal-berger-the-hedge-fund-manager-who-called-the-market-top/comment-page-1/#comment-82840 Timothy Sykes Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:46:40 +0000 http://test.timothysykes.com/?p=4633#comment-82840 haha yes the Berger strikes back! haha yes the Berger strikes back!

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