I just had to link to this great post from Barry Ritholz on housing (Click HERE to read it). I truly hope it does play out like that cuz all the dumb money really deserves to be punished…justice must be served. And, considering the investments already made by folks leveraged to the hilt, that justice could turn out to be very cruel very shortly. (HERE‘s another good post of how bad it is)
Who knows what’s actually gonna happen, it’s a guessing game–all we know is that in the end, whoever correctly guesses bullish or bearish before any rebound or crash is gonna be honored to death, no matter that they have a 50% chance of being right and even if they make a few more right calls, the sample size of their “genius” is so small it’s like calling someone in a casino who correctly bets on black five or six times in a row a genius. Obviously no sane person would call a degenerate gambler that, but this is finance baby, an industry that is so backwards, it’s gonna take me decades to get everyone to realize how corrupt it all is & how you can profit form it (yet another reason to wipe ‘em all out).
Don’t even get me started on how much better PennyStocking is, predictability- and credibility-wise (now THIS is a useful sample set), we’ll save that topic for random rants to be posted over the next decade…for now, just know–as I’ve also been advised by several bigtimers–don’t even think about trying to predict the market/economic/housing bottom, we’re paying for waaaaaay too many sins of the past. Just play it safe with ALL your trades and investments and make it through this deleveraging/credit unwinding, profiting from individual ideal plays whenever they decide to pop up…
Posted in Breakdowns, idiots, Randomness, Rants