CHATROOM

To Trust The Charts Or Not To Trust The Charts, That Is The Question

March 3, 2008 at 10:58 am
by timothysykes

Watch these 7 free video lessons on how I became a millionaire

“You can never step into the same river; for new waters are always flowing on to you.”

–Heraclitis

But back then, StockCharts.com wasn’t around so he couldn’t compare these 100-day charts of equally sketchy alternative energy plays Solarfun (SOLF) and Pacific Ethanol (PEIX).

OOPEIX

OOSOLF

As I wrote in this post a few weeks ago, when SOLF was $17 (coulda woulda shoula, coulda woulda shoulda!), me thinks SOLF bulls doth protest too much. After that pattern came and went, as PEIX’s performance over the next two years shows, it’s no smooth ride to single digits, SOLF shorts be warned…

OOPEIXnow

And, of course, as this Yahoo! Finance quote of the 30-year treasuries shows, you can’t can’t always trust the charts/data:

BONDS

Posted in Analogies, Patterns To Short

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  • lmsmith

    Damn Solar stocks- I am staying away for a long time- not only have I made money off of them before 2008- but once we entered the new year….. damn stocks burned me…. looking for new ways to recover

  • Joey

    Hey Tim, what do you think of RHD and IAR today? Got into IAR at 5.09 and RHD at 7.35. Both seem to be winners of the day.
    Cheers

  • Joseph

    lol you’re a funny dude, man…opening sentence got me laughing

  • tsa

    TSL morning spike, maybe TSL is filling up the downgrades 3 days ago?

  • Scott

    Tim, You apparently are having great success recently. However, it seems your main thrust these days is teaching people how to trade like you do. In this regard, there is scant evidence on this site that others have been remotely as successful as you. As a matter of fact, the only thing that seems apparent is that you are not doing very well teaching people how to identify potential plays. Most posts on here seek your opinion on various stock plays and you dismiss about 99.99% of them for various reasons. Why is everyone having such difficulty spotting potential setups?

  • be-the-ball

    scott,

    cause there aren’t very many. ideally you would only trade once or twice a month. but we are all addicts.

    of tims trades in feb only 2 or 3 were actually perfect setups, the rest were addict trades…

  • Joseph

    I’ve noticed that too, but he did say it’s all about patterns and people haven’t been able to spot these patterns that’s probably why he dismissed so many of them.

  • timsykes

    see the comments section on posts about IDMI, DARA, COIN and SHZ, my readers are having more success than me! as for my pickiness in plays, thats how i do it, thats what i teach, thats whats ideal for people that cant trade every second and most importantly for smaller investors. for one reason or another, most plays are completely random and by focusing on them, thats why people lose $ trading. i hold my students to higher standards. we wait for all the variables to be aligned. here are quotes to live by:

    Wait for the fat pitch. – Warren Buffett: comparing investing to a baseball game where you can wait endlessly for the perfect pitch before you swing.

    I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work…And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realize when it’s a special day. – George Soros talking to Byron Wien

    His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. – from Jesse Livermore, Worlds Greatest Stock Trader

    Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. …Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.- Gerald Loeb

    You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.- Seth Glickenhaus

  • Alex

    You missed one of the most classic quotes from the annals of philosophy (well, okay…TV to be honest)…
    Patience, grasshopper, patience.
    BTW – Your blog rocks! Today the Heraclitus quote really got me excited…that was soooo apropos. I’m suprised you didn’t dig up a great Nietzche or Heiddeger (xcuse my spelling if need be) to illustrate this notion of investing as a baseball game.

  • manhack

    HNAB looks like a big mover today.

  • Alvari40

    How did u find HNAB? Great find.

  • Dave

    Tim what do you think about CTUM for a breakout?

  • coinbuyer

    COIN hit your taget price above $12.41, time to buy for a quick ride. Are you ready??

  • coinbuyer

    Not $12.41, typo:( I mean $14.41, and alredy crossed $14.50 at over 2000000 shares volume

  • timsykes

    COIN, i’m thinking about buying for the close, but i truly hate buying breakouts, so i’m gonna wait as long as i can…last time it hit $14.40ish and fell, lets see if it can start to really squeeze, then 10-20 cents won’t really matter

  • Chemajh

    It’s tough to strike out with the bat on your shoulder while waiting for that perfect pitch.

    TRR?

  • timsykes

    yah i’ so weary of COIN, such a pathetic breakout…again…reminds me of YTEC, a stock that is now $2 off its highs

  • Ivan Mutaftchiev

    Tim,

    If COIN closes under 14.00 would you go long overnight or would you consider it a short opportunity ?

  • timsykes

    ivan, theres a third option, avoid altogether

  • Ivan Mutaftchiev

    Seems like the correct option LOL

  • Yordan Daskalov

    Correct!!

  • timsykes

    bought 300 COIN at $14.49, did it during a live radio interview, def. gonna post the link its hilarious…gotta love this breakout!

  • Ivan Mutaftchiev

    COIN Closed near the highs – short squeeze tomorrow morning ?

  • Eric T

    Tim you think its going to gap up tomorrow? and you’re going to press the eject button?

  • M

    Tim, are you talking about potentially buying COIN as a long play thinking it might breakout even more, or are you looking to short it if you make a move?

  • KF

    SWC….should we get our bear claws ready?

  • timsykes

    just bought for a breakout/morning squeeze, but this stock is one strong sucka—listen to my hourlong radio interview, the last 10 minutes are my COIN trade LOL:

    http://www.modavox.com/voiceamericacms/WebModules/HostModaview.aspx?HostId=222&ChannelId=2&Flag=1

  • Funterpwave

    SWC……I was saying this at $18…..Don’t even think about it untill it EVER finishes negative on the day….. just my opinion.

  • timsykes

    sold my COIN at $14.97, just booked another interview so i’m not gonna be around tomorrow morning and i dont trust the stock further than i can throw it

  • D

    how can I learn how to trade these, TIM?

  • timsykes

    D, just follow along on the blog, check out my book and DVD and ask any question in the forums. my business model is hardcore learning

  • AP

    Hey Scott – Part of the learning process of this website is WHY 99.9% of the charts people suggest are bad entry points. I think it’s awesome that Tim is screening thousands of charts a day for me (and anybody else with a pulse and a few dollars to trade). The only way that you haven’t made money by reading this site is by taking the other side of these trades out of pure skepticism.

  • http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/weekly-dividend-investing-roundup-march-7-2008/ Weekly Dividend Investing Roundup – March 7, 2008 » The Dividend Guy Blog

    [...] Mr. Promotion himself (aka Tim Sykes) asked, To Trust The Charts Or Not To Trust The Charts, That Is The Question? [...]

  • bill

    wow, more potential buys than shorts.

  • SRT8U

    LOL – My testomonial says “Traderjoe” ?

    Here are some of my thoughts Tim:

    PQ- If you hold until Friday, it should hit $5.19-5.24, I am sitting on 9000 shares myself.

    RUTH- It is overbought, I took profit at $4.24 for a $7380 gain.. I dont see it going much further unless it pulls back first

    DRYS- Will hit $9-10 this week

    BEE- Potential double + nearterm

    BZ- Potential double nearterm

    URE- I have 7500 shares of this, I expect a nice return this week

    SIRI- Will run nice on Thursday after earnings

    BBI- Potential breakout this week

    LVS/MGM- Will run this week based on earnings, I am LOADED on this one. If I said how many shares you wouldnt believe me.

    Good luck guys

  • be the ball

    3 stocks out of 12 you are actually considering for monday.

    maybe you need 2 watchlists. 1 called “stocks I am watching for tomorrow” and one called “stocks I was watching that my subs played well and made money on”

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    BTB, that’s what my daily video watchlists are coming into play for….

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    as TIMalert subscribers grow and the more people who watch and learn from my PennyStocking DVD grows, this list is gonna start to get crazy, think about that…

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    http://timothysykes.smugmug.com/gallery/7979938_svoiF#527897563_nnpaT is my daily video wtchlist…password is timalerts1

  • kakifiru

    SRT Nice testomonial…

  • nifri

    The audio seems to lag behind the video in today’s video watchlist. At the end the difference is around 5-10 seconds.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    I do really like the videos! But yeah something wierd is going on with the audio makes it difficult to keep track of whats going on.

  • bassman52

    it wouldn’t let me play the vid…. i couldn’t watch the last one either for some reason.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Reminder stock preacher at 10AM.

  • echo1025

    BCRX down premarket. I’m holding short from Friday pm.

  • carolcj83

    I agree with BTB, there’re too many distractions with all the testomonials and today only 3 stocks out of 12 are actually on the real watchlist for Monday?

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    CENX premarket

  • casey3115

    bcrx is gaining a little ground pre market.

  • cavtrav72

    COT looks like a great play….. big up volume prehours……I hope this rides out to 5 or higher in the next couple of days. In with 7000 shares

  • SRT8U

    Wow, all of my picks are up huge today. BZ and BEE are breaking out… they all are

  • Jeff Moates

    I get why you’re doing the video watchlist tim, but are you saying your regular timalerts subscribers will eventually only be subscribing to a list of testimonials? Or will the video watchlist still be reflected here, we’ll just have to wade through all the BS?

  • Pataxe

    How far do you guys think FIG is going? I bought Friday @ 4.45 on SRT’s reccomendation and it is now up to 5.2. Should I take my profits and buy back in later?

  • carolcj83

    I am in for PQ at 3.80

  • SRT8U

    FIG needs a pullback.. I would have taken profits on the spike this morning… but it may recover later today and make a new high.. possibly

  • Jeff Moates

    in BEE at $1

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    timalerts testimonials arent only to show my stuff works, they help beginners where to get in/out…the videos cant include testimonials so its purely my buy/sell points in visual form

  • Jeff Moates

    So…the video watchlists won’t contain any more stocks to watch than this list, it will just be cut and dry.

  • SRT8U

    Once BEE breaks that $1.00 and holds… its going to rocket this week

  • Pataxe

    Sold FIG @ 5.10 for $195 profit, thanks SRT!

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    video will contain whatever i want it to contain–like today i featured stocks not in my text watchlist like HRZ and RTEC to show what breakouts are doing…

  • bassman52

    anyone in COT?

  • Jeff Moates

    Whoa Timmy, no need to get defensive. As a business man I agree with your method, market one product until it has a great customer base, then segment off the premium stuff into another medium and charge more, then repeat. As a subscriber, I’m not so sure I would appreciate missing out on any of your stocks just because I don’t wanna pay the $99/month. I, and most others signed up for your watchlist under the impression that we were getting all of Timothy Sykes Stock Juice, not just a half cup full of Best Brand OJ and we have to pay more to get the premium stuff. Just think about it. I like that you’ve grandfathered the recent subscribers in until July.

  • SRT8U

    Up 200% on my May $7.50 DRYS calls =)

  • vicdim

    BOSC stockpreachers newest pump and dump

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    stockpreacher BOSC

  • lazydeveloper

    BOSC was up 400 percent 4 seconds after the email came through.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    moates, not defensive, the video does feature all the text watchlist picks, the other ones just provide illustrative examples

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    no BOSC to short anywhere :(

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Yeah I dont’ know if i could ever play a stockpreacher pick, but they are fun to watch!

  • SRT8U

    Why worry about shorting when buying is the way to go, I am honestly up $15600 today… shorting will come later, but look at the DOW.. buying is the key right now guys

  • casey3115

    Shorted BCRX friday into the squeeze. $3.3. Cant believe it went to 3.75 ouch. Finally back in the black on this one. now the only question is… How low will it go?

  • Jeff Moates

    Love it Tim, Thanks!

  • Jeff Moates

    holy crap! BOSC chart is ridiculous, hahahaha! I feel sorry for the unlucky guy that bought at $5.80

  • Proud Clod

    In at COTS 3.99,,,my market open order did not fill till like 4 mins after for some reason…

  • http://www.quarterstudios.net sebarich76

    Why bee should be skyrocket ?

  • SRT8U

    Research it yourself… it already is… and since I mentioned it last week

  • SRT8U

    BBI making that slow breakout.. my target is $1.44

  • SoBeGemini

    Any takers on $FSIN?

  • Spit

    Whats the reason behind Blockbuster SRT8U?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    BCRX testing lows…

  • HopeSolo

    I agree SRT, who wouldn’t want to go long today? So easy to profit on days like this by going long, no need to stress it to try to find something to short, gotta implement many strategies and be ready to use the best suited one on any given day.

  • SRT8U

    BBI – chart and earnings runs- I have played earnings runs for years.. they have made me a lot of money. Trying to figure out the shorting game after though, thats what I am here for.

    Patiently awaiting Timealerts so I can make my first couple of bucks with the service :)

  • Spit

    What price you in at on BBI?

  • bassman52

    Tim i love you man!!! keep the buys comming son!! you can pick em’

    360.00 profit on a small account on COT

    -matt

  • carolcj83

    Should I hold PQ for earnings?

  • Jeff Moates

    BCRX bouncing…

  • nifri

    Covered 2000 MNTG @ 1.56. Was short from Thursday 30th of April @ 2.09. Net profit of $1040 on MNTG.

    Lost $50 on CENX. Bought 2000 avg. 6.17. Thought it would take out the high of 6.4 but was stopped out at 6.15 on a little dip. Now it’s around 6.50 argh! No more day trades left, thanks PDT.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    BCRX annoying keeps bouncing right at my short point. I feel a small loss brewing….

  • SRT8U

    Hold PQ until $5.20 … which should be by Friday or Monday of next week

    Im in BBI @ .829

  • SRT8U

    Should have bought CENX when I mentioned it Friday @ $4.68

  • SRT8U

    On day like this, NO ONE should be taking a loss.

  • http://twitter.com/rickyt1986 rickyt1986

    what do u see with BBi from its charts its not to good no breakout i guess on a week like this it could breakout

  • SRT8U

    Ricky, look at the weekly chart.. also hype from earnings..

  • http://mcbowler.com mcbowler

    Out CENX 6.68, up $1790, and I’m off work today.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    SRT, I realize you have a hot hand right now, and congrats on that!! But there are two sides to every trade. Its a little naive to make a statement like that.

  • SRT8U

    CENX is going to $10, just watch.

    I have been trading for 8 years and rarely make a losing trade for what its worth, if you call that naive thats fine… I have a different word for it

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    awesome mcbowler!

  • SRT8U

    Check out PCX

  • robert96

    Check out CROX

  • SRT8U

    CROX breakout

  • SRT8U

    LOL

  • http://mcbowler.com mcbowler

    Great.. I will buy CENX again at 5.68

  • SRT8U

    Anyone buy DTG last week when it was $2.61 when I posted it? Its at $4.80 right now

  • SRT8U

    Tim on a day like this, why arent there any TimAlerts?

  • bassman52

    SRT8U r you a daytrader? you seem pretty skilled.

  • anuudnug

    Thanks Tim,

    Again, A Morning Profit of 424$ on BCRX..

    Udnug

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    who cares what day it is SRt, i dont force trades…BOSC had no shares to short, watching several others

  • traderjoe7

    SRT8U what are yr picks for today

  • SRT8U

    Pretty much- I dont do this for a living, I am one of the owners of a small business and I have a lot of free time in the office- So I daytrade. I never implemented shorting into my strategy, hence the reason I subscribed to this site.. Tim seems like the best guy in the Short side business, so I thought I would give it a shot.

  • traderjoe7

    Tim what price were u looking to short BOSC ?? My broker has some available

  • http://mcbowler.com mcbowler

    SRT8U. Are you on Covestor or any other site? I Don’t want to spam Tim’s site. Great call on BEE.. that was my #1 pick today, but most of my money was tied up in other things. I’ve got 3900 shares.

  • SRT8U

    Tim- who cares what day it is? Oh nothing, just the DOW about ready to hit 8500 and thousands of stocks rallying to new 4 week highs… ??

  • dave

    in bcrx @3.60 premarket out at 3.1799 600 shares 245 profit in 2 hours…

  • SoBeGemini

    Thinking about buying COT. Anyone one else in already?

  • robert96

    I am in COT @ 3.85

  • bill

    LOL, stockpreacher:
    “That said, all we can say is WOW! BOSC hit a high of $5.80 today, probably because of what we explained above, but non-the-less did hit a high of $5.80, until finding a more comfortable trading arena in the $0.75 to $1.05 area.”

  • http://twitter.com/rickyt1986 rickyt1986

    XSEL is this a break out waiting to happen? good balance sheet reports 5/12

  • casey3115

    SRT what is your time frame and exit point on BEE?

  • http://twitter.com/rickyt1986 rickyt1986

    tim look the market is fading down… maybe a dip or fade till the end of today?

  • rajuthan
  • SRT8U

    Casey- Its hard to say where BEE can go, earnings are out on May 7th (along with SIRI) and I expect positive reports- My exit may be on Friday depending on how it looks, or I could ride it into next week – Either way, $3.00 doesnt seem too hard to imagine in the next 7-10 days… but it all depends on earnings on Thursday. Quick profit would be to ride it until Wednesday PM if you get scared, should hit $1.95 by then

  • SRT8U

    I am so nervous and want to sell my LVS and MGM right now.. I cant even believe the profit I have on it.. bought both at $3.4x ranges and have been holding tight…. im scared for the earnings but I think they will be good….

  • echo1025

    SRT, you can never be wrong taking a profit.

  • SRT8U

    I am going to have to start an alert site soon LOL… called PCX @ 8.76… just hit $9.52 for a +568 profit

  • robert96

    I am holding both MGM and WYNN until earnings. I think MGM will hit $12 this week.

  • SRT8U

    Watch CAEI – Im in @ 2.10

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    RUTH has a nice reversal chart pattern but earnings tomorrow before the market means i dont short this one overnight :(

  • bill

    my friend bought caei @ 8 last year and still holding it. a lot of bitter holders.

  • SRT8U

    I know its a little pricey, but CHK reports after the bell, expect a major gap up tomorrow.

  • robert96

    I got bored with COT. Out at $4.12 – $256 profit.

  • http://twitter.com/rickyt1986 rickyt1986

    OCNF broke its resistance just bought @ 1.64 watch it jump on open tomorrow

  • ferrari

    SRT8U, let’s get a good one that’s low and you’re about to get in.. :)

  • schistyakov

    SRT thanks for many good calls you post here, what are using to evaluate companies you invest in? Do you look at their competitors and their posted Q results?

  • Jeff Moates

    wow, you’re right OCNF could be a true breakout, that thing could jump big

  • SRT8U

    No problem guys-

    Best bang for the buck are option calls right now.. just loaded up on May $8 ELN calls, May LVS and MGM $10 calls… sold my DRYS calls for 250% gains.

    Sold CAEI for a +178 gain, too slow for me.

  • SRT8U

    Anyone feeling lucky? Roll the dice with SIRI, could run after earnings and hit .63-.70 this week or early next.

  • SRT8U

    SSW breakout, just broke $7.00 … this could be interesting

  • jerry1213

    I got in @0.39 SIRI. SRT, thanks for the info

  • SRT8U

    Its a 50/50 shot on SIRI, but why not? Bad news is already priced in, if they mention in their earnings they made $2 this past quarter it will rally and have a nice short squeeze. But, I am only 50% on it. Great lotto play. The worst than can happen is a drop to the low .30 ranges I would think… risk/reward is great. Good luck.

  • Webster

    Short 3000 BCRX at 3.32 I think this is coming back down to 3.0 resistance

  • Spit

    I am having a punt at SIRI, thanks SRT.

  • bill

    will buy cot if it breaks 4.3

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    i aint buying this COt afternoon breakout but it is impressive, congrats to all u still holding, especially to those who bought during livestock!

  • jpp

    SRT8U, are you on covestor.com? I think you’d have a pretty good following based on the last few days/week.

    Bought some PQ Friday, BEE this morning, thanks.

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    Had my trigger on COT @$4.30 but backed off for some reason. Looks like a bad move…

  • Proud Clod

    yep. cot brke out again. baught at open. i havent decided if im holding overnight yet…

  • bill

    well, filled COT @ 4.33. Too late to see Tim’s reply

  • SRT8U

    JPP- No, I wish I had the time- my business and trading keeps me so busy during the day it would be one more thing to mess with.. LOL.

    S&P broke 900! This isnt just another day guys. We are seeing a bull market and its time to BUY ! Glad some of you guys are making money on my calls. Just adding a little extra value to the TimAlerts site for the time being…

  • SRT8U

    LVS / MGM breaking out hard right now… Looks like the short squeeze is on!

  • Sunny

    SRT how long are planning to hold on the options LVS/MGM…

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    DDRX over $10 again.

  • SRT8U

    DDRX has too much resistance at $10 like last week, I say short it at $10 all day long.. lol

  • SRT8U

    Sunny- not sure, probably tomorrow or next day

  • bill

    follow tim’s advice, sold wth $2 gain after commision

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    I wasnt saying buy DDRX, I want some revenge on a failed short on that bitch!!

  • SRT8U

    Hahah… go for it… its too scary for me, it moves up and down quickly with small volume.

  • ferrari

    some resistance on mgm… you think earnings are going to be stronger than anticipated?

  • bassman52

    do yall think its too late to buy COT ? think it will gap up ?

  • Webster

    Out of BCRX at 3.12 for $570!

  • Spit

    SRT, what day is SIRI’s earnings?

  • dsmith

    earnings.com
    SiRI – may-7

  • http://www.kabam.com tbohen

    ha nice call by me on NOT buying DDRX :)

  • bill

    tim has good sense. I feel lucky that I sold COT quickly with $2 gain.

  • SRT8U

    Some good news that might indicate a run for SIRI- DirecTV and Liberty media are merging… this should be a clear indicator of what SIRI’s future will be considering Liberty saved SIRI from Bankruptcy. SIRI will be at $1.00 sooner than you think.

  • Spit

    Will be good if you are right!!

  • SRT8U

    I hope I am right too- This is seriously a lotto play- But like I said, the reward is much greater than the risk IMO, just play with money that you wouldnt mind losing 35% on just in case it is not a favorable report. I just see longevity with SIRI and cannot accept the fact that SIRI is trading so cheap at the moment.

  • ferrari

    srt8u – good call on mgm!

  • vorourke

    tim, just wanted to tell you i made my subscription back arleady..thanks

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    awesome man, how much $ u make so far?

  • schistyakov

    SRT looks like CHK also reported worse than expected, and now there is no big gap ups, just a small sell off instead