TIM $16,075 Down $105, Dumb trade wastes $40 monthly gift from Thinkorswim

I’ve written about these stocks before, but every day brings new data (of course, the data rules most plays out, aka ideal trades happen rarely). Remember, you’re not trading based on business performance, you’re trading based on stock performance (two very diff. things, the biz is usually just a front to raise capital/issue more stock anyway!), as if you betting on horses. (one very applicable old/hard-to-find book is Secrets of Professional Turf Betting) Like horses, each stock has specific characteristics—some are fast spikers (DARA, SHZ, IDMI, SOIGF), some breakout gradually (SWC, CTUM, GEOI, GENC, damn you COIN!) and most just suck/can’t hold their gains (over time, all of the above).

Let’s start with those from which you can still profit:

SOIGF—Sir Spamalot, an oil play that loves sending out spam claiming to be the next Exxon. As I posted HERE, spam stocks are scary to buy into, so I hesitated and missed a big runup. Nows its off its high, but maybe they’ll start the spam up again…

COIN—the clear play du now, when it stops nobody knows, out goes Y-O-U (you short sellers that is) C’mon, don’t you wanna go out with a bang? C’mon be a good microcrapper, yes you are, yesssss you are, who’s a good boy, yessss you are! Hopefully the overall market/financial collapse doesn’t get in the way of destiny.

COINW—moves based on COIN, just somewhat exponentially…can’t find any shares to short, can anybody else?

CTUM—responsible for my loss today, not the stock’s fault—my fault. I pledged to wait to buy into a strong close that would signal a morning spike tomorrow, but I jumped the gun at 3:20pm, buying 2k shares at $2.345, expecting a close around/breakout of $2.40

TIM Lesson: Wait for the breakouts, don’t anticipate them

Impatient as ever, I fell in love with the variables—acceleration of the daily uptrend, solid volume and story (they’ve patented tissue welding, potentially revolutionary as there’d be no more need for sutures, stitches, staples, but shady shady website) (shady is good short-term, if stock promoters do their jobs correctly), but didn’t wait for the most important one of all, the strong move into the close needed to seal the deal.

Unfortunately, the overall market tank accelerated, scaring out a few weak hands, including me, as I sold at $2.31 and $2.30, not wanting to risk a big tank into the market close (as happened on 2 previous spikes last month without the help of a national financial crisis). I was right to take my losses quickly (closed 10 cents lower), wrong to be involved in the first place.

SWC—despite its nice double break of $19.80, hesitated in shorting it since it’s a metals play…no guts, no glory…B aggressive, B-E aggressive

GEOI—hesitated in buying the breakout at $10.50 because it’s a commodity play, certainly won’t be the last one I miss…

CPST—hesitated buying the breakout at $2-ish cuz it’s not volatile enough for the infinitely impatient, good avoidance

Perfect PennyStocking plays of weeks’ past:

SHZ—down $2+ since my cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held

DARA—down $1.75 since my buy to cover last week—coulda woulda shoulda held (common theme with these)

IDMI—bouncy little sucker, too scary to hold

CEGE—too picky in my entry, never shorted it, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!

STEN—never found shares to short, gotta needta haveta profit from this kind of pattern!

Sooooooooo, I will continue stalking as usual…

Tags: Books, Impatience, Patterns To Short, TIM Lessons