All The Usual Suspects Are Hot, But Not Hot Enough For Me, zzzzzzzz!
TIM $14,130, Up $202, No Overnight Positions, Gonna Sleeeeeeep In Tomorrow
Today I joined the venerable, highly decorated, nationally renowned, internationally recognized and universally praised Dinosaur Trader’s Virtual Office where I’ll be competing against 9 other traders for daily bragging rights. Considering I just recently gave up day trading, it’s going to be an uphill battle, but I’m ready to fight! After all, DT has already dubbed me “Blingmaster”
In case you got too drunk over the weekend or forgot, you can track all my trades here
Waited exactly 3 minutes after the 8am open to sell my 200 shares of (APWR) at $18.78. Could’ve gotten a better fill at $19, but I wasn’t gonna risk my $200+ in near-riskless gains (held for a total of 4 market minutes) for an extra $50. As proven by the drop by the open to $18 and subsequent fall below $17, I was right to be quick getting the hell outta there. TIM Lesson: Certainly buy into hype (when there’s a true breakout), but never believe it. Sure, this company could be the “(FSLR) of wind energy”, but why risk it? Who do you trust more, a sketchy Chinese company pumped by day traders or that $202 dollars you’ve earned because others believe “this stock has a big future”, aka “the greater fool theory” (I sound bearish—I’m not—I just play it for the predictable result of weekend hype and then I leave it to the gods of randomness). These hype plays are all about perception and if you didn’t get that from my post about it, you’re an idiot and you don’t deserve to make money trading. Just kidding—even idiots deserve to be wealthy.
(FRPT) and (ONT) proved to be better gap up plays—shoulda woulda coulda bought the trifecta, ONT gapped up 5 cents and FRPT 25 cents, both would’ve been around $200 profits (on $4kish positions), proving the value of low priced stocks once again. Honestly, FRPT longs got lucky that they announced they hired somebody to pump their stock, cough, cough, I mean PR firm.
On strong volume, (SOLF) broke out of a 5-day base past $18 and had an afternoon intraday breakout ($18.50 to $18.80), but where was it gonna go? Solar, agri and China plays were all hot, but this one was already up 10% on the day—without news and in a bear market, it’s tough to hold, let alone extend those kinds of daily gains. Other hot solar plays, (CSIQ), (CSUN) and (SOL), I’m watching them too, none of their price action impressed me enough to buy in.
The agris were also back in play, (NOEC), (SEED) and (COIN), all jumped 5-10% by mid-morning, but again, where were they gonna go? Lots of bitter shareholders/bagholders at higher prices looking to get out on any bounce, cursing themselves for believing the BS. TIM Lesson: Wait for true breakouts, that way you don’t have to be perfect in your timing at all (HUGE for me since I suck at timing). Actually thought about shorting my old friend COINW in the $4 range, but the spread and hence the risk-reward sucks (as I learned the hard way last time).
Similarly, when (APWR) tanked mid-morning, where was it gonna go? Sure, it could drop $1 or so, but it’s still a breakout past $15 and it was too early to be calling a definitely end to their Friday/Monday pre-market run. It’ll probly regroup and try again in a few days/weeks—I’ll wait for volume/volatility, God knows I can’t sit through small moves
Two other big Friday movers, (INFN) and (PRXI) both failed to do anything more than drop gradually today (they’re not favs of the day trader crowd!) Partly the reason for me ignoring (CPSL)’s strong price action today (again, lack of predictability). All these imperfect patterns are why I avoid most “hot stocks”—because there’s little chance they’ll continue their price moves in an orderly fashion.
On the other hand, proven spiker (CHNR) has no qualms about spiking steadily. Its tight float, solid double bottom in place at $15 and a history of moving $5+ in a day on no news make it a powder keg. Other Chinese hype plays like (JRJC) and (EFUT), both up 10%+ before fading were no match for this 20%+ guy. Now that’s the one I really considered buying, but it’s not perfect so I let it go.
And there’s bird flu in Bangladesh! Pray for us and watch (BCRX) and (AVII)
How great a job did my designer do on this site, right? Just wait til you see the stuff we’ve got planned—TIMtv, TIMRadio, give us a few days/weeks, lots and lots to do—gonna make this creap entertaining for once!
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| Date | Stock | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 23 | MKTY | $4.73 | $5.40 | $187 |
| July 22 | MKTY | $4.10 | $4.28 | $240 |
| July 21 | ZYXI | $3.03 | $3.18 | $130 |
| July 15 | MNLU | $6.37 | $6.73 | $340 |
| July 11 | IDAE | $2.27 | $2.49 | $630 |
| July 8 | ERII | $11.29 | $11.00 | $162 |
| July 3 | TGC | $2.14 | $2.39 | $471 |
| July 2 | HYGS | $2.15 | $2.29 | $260 |
| July 2 | TGC | $3.44 | $3.49 | $80 |
Total: $22,457 (
81%)
1Dinosaur Trader
February 4th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Welcome Mr. Sykes…
-DT
2Gary Godman
February 4th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Great new site. Good luck
3Matthew
February 4th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
hey tim,
great new site, love your style and also loved your library…any way i can get a list of your books if its not to much trouble. i started reading a few out of it and love your choices.
4timsykes
February 4th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Thanks for the compliments, library is on its way, still porting over lots of things
5John cc
February 4th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
You forgot your RCH? It was up 24% today :-)
6Eric
February 4th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Tim i really enjoy your website and especially your stock market tips. The latest thing ive learned from you is knowing when to cut your losses and being able to move on. Maybe you can put a trade tip of the day on your website? Also, I was browsing your library selection and i saw that you briefly mentioned that you are putting together another book about how to start up a hedge fund?! Thanks always!
7timsykes
February 4th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
nah I’m not playing AMEX stocks like RCH–too big spreads
Eric, good idea on the trade tip/day, also starting a hedge fund is what my first book is about!
8Mike
February 4th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Tim,
Curious are you including your trade transaction costs in your TIM profit/loss calculations?
Thanks
9timsykes
February 4th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Yup, commissions are usually $5 each trade. soemtimes $7.50, sometimes $10, depending on # of shares/exchange, all rather negligible
10curious one
February 4th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
tim,
there is some kind of error displaying the page, there is overlapping of numbers under the name of the poster…is this normal?
11timsykes
February 4th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
thanks, my designer’s on top of it, anyone else, def. let me know if you see any bugs
12andrew
February 5th, 2008 at 12:34 am
IFC, IBCP are those Supernova patterns? Good shorts?
13Mike
February 5th, 2008 at 6:03 am
Hey Tim, what do you think about GCE.TO? It doubled as coal mining shares are getting boosted over Chinese shortages (so the news says). The only thing is it’s making new highs and earnings are coming out Feb. 7. Looking at chart, it gapped up 15 cents thru its previous high after sideways action. Seems like a lot of hype and a potential candidate for short?? What’s your view on this?
14Shortdapigs
February 5th, 2008 at 6:08 am
My supernovas ,, ACHN up over 70% last 2 days and ROHI over a double last 2 days can come down hard.
Both pigs.
OinkOink!!
15Mike
February 5th, 2008 at 6:10 am
Got one more for you (ICS.TO). Tripled in the last 4 months or so. Lots of volume with massive gap up on Wednesday due to news.
16Oliver
February 5th, 2008 at 8:06 am
I find it weird how “to da Moon” your call on APWR went. “Id be happy with $20″. None of this happened. the stock was only “pumped”. with announcements all over blog like this it is very easy to pump stocks that size but not predict them.
People who went in on your call on sunday (i think) probly got your shares when you sold them. congrats on such a predictable (knowing that there are idots out there who buy stocks that are called on blogs) trade.
17Joseph
February 5th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Oliver, it was all hype. Read the post again. I thought the same thing until I read the entire post (not just a paragraph). Anyways, you shouldn’t trade stocks you see on blogs…do your own research, make your own analysis. However, I don’t think Tim is doing a good job “teaching” (if that’s really your true intention) calling his followers “idiots”, and not being too clear sometimes..but the guy has had some good calls, you can deny him that
18Joseph
February 5th, 2008 at 8:18 am
*you can’t deny him that
19timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
ACHN, I don’t short biotechs that are waaaaay off their lows, too much spikage, nor do I play Canadian listed equities. Today’s market is dead
As with APWR, you guys are idiots if you couldn’t see that my post was a classic example of hype–I even mentioned my post would be spammed everywhere. And somehow, somehow I believed a ridiculous over the top title like that would help show how ridiculous the smallcap hype game is.
And no I don’t mind calling people idiots, most people on Wall Street are! And no I’m not gonna be your normal kind of teacher, I’m a freaken day trader who has little patience! I created my book and DVD so you guys would have background info on all my trades and strategies, the blog is meant to take that info to the next level. If you try to understand everything based on the blog alone, you’re gonna be lost. So do your DD before you jump to conclusions.
20timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Oh and ROHI isn’t up or expensive enough for me to short, I really want to stick to “perfect” charts, those being up 100-300% within a few days, they offer the best risk-reward ratios
21timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 11:35 am
IFC and IBCP are not supernovas either, neither are up enough, both are in hard hit categories due overdue for spikes. Think 100-300% moves in 2-3 days and 300-1,000% moves in 1-2 weeks—those are patterns I want to short
22John
February 5th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Nice site! In internet explorer, your site doesn’t work well though - I can barely read the comments section… and this form doesn’t line up correctly.
23Tom
February 5th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Sorry Tim but 2 days ago you said “APWR is going to da moon” and now you sold it for 200 dollars. That all makes no sense. It’s again daytrading now what you do? I think you got no idea about the strategy you like the most.
Any explanation to these weird changes?
24timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
I still t hink APWR is headed higher, but I take my $1-2 gains and move on. That’s my strategy. That’s always been my strategy. I play volatile stocks and I try to hop on and off along the way, so $1-$2 price moves are much easier to predict. That said, APWR broke out perfectly, is moving on hype and it probly will continue to do so, god bless those long-term investors who have patience to hold for double or triples
25Dan
February 5th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
did you transfer from tufts to tulane or what?
why the switch?
26timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Yeah I hated Tufts, I’d already made $1 million so I didn’t care as much about a school’s reputation, I wanted to party!
27ilan
February 5th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
hey Tim do you play in after hours, I’m from Toronto , Canada and after hours trades are full comm. what do you guys for after hours trades
Ilan
28ilan
February 5th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
what do you guys pay for after hours trades
Ilan
29timsykes
February 5th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
I try to stay away from afterhours trades, if I’m holding overnight, I want to hold overnight, not cut it short…unless of course I have nice profits. Commissions are negligible
30TraderTexas
February 6th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Please, never stop trading, blogging, or writing. Keep it up.