CHATROOM

Last Day of 2007, Still Lessons To Be Learned

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December 31st, 2007 Review:
TIM $14,327 (down $68 on the day, up $179 or 1.26% on the month)

Covered 200 CSUN @ $17.06, Re-shorted 300 @ $16.55 ($15ish Gain, Holding Overnight)

Shorted 700 JADE @ $5.75, Covered @$5.80 ($55 Loss)

I’ll get into my monthly, probly even a yearly review in another post; for now, I’m just gonna review today because these trades serves as yet another great lesson.

Unsurprisingly, I couldn’t wait for normal market hours to cover my (Nasdaq: CSUN) short, covering within 10 minutes of pre-market trading at $17.06. Liquidity was tight and there were some big buy orders, so I said screw it, let’s play it safe – I knew I still had one day trade left if it proved itself to be a good short later in the day.

At the market open, CSUN dropped quickly to $16.50, but held it and it was straight up from there, all the way to $18, although late in the day, there was a good shorting opportunity (but by that time I’d used up my day trade) cracking some perfect sideways price action at $17.30 (not an afternoon fade, more like an afternoon tumble off the cliff, but the lesson being it waited until the afternoon), dropping within minutes to $16.75 and nearly taking out the magical $16.50, making it a good overnight short (so, I dove back in shorting 300 shares afterhours at $16.55). I’ll watch it closely Wednesday morning – freaken market’s closed tomorrow!?!?!? – for a possible crack of the big one at $16…could try to bounce pre-market and scare me out for a $75 loss or so, but the chart (below) shows how last Wednesday, it went straight up from $14.5 to $15.5 in the last hour before gapping to $18 in the first hour on Thursday. Now, we have the exact same setup, but from the bearish side since the stock dropped $1 in the last hour, I’d love to get a gap down to $14.5, but that’s dreaming, I’ll take $15.50…

You know what they say, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again…it’s gonna be interesting to see if all the recent solar strength can last into the New Year or if it’s just a case of window dressing by fund who want to be able to tell their clients they’re invested in “the hottest technology around” (which I’m counting on) LOL, you gotta love these stupid Wall Street games!

(Nasdaq: ASTI) – nice $2 plummet from $27 to $25 right at the open, only to be followed by a $3 spike to $28 within 10 minutes, gotta love the volatility at the open! Settled into being slightly negative all day before a late day crack brought it to close right under the morning support at $25. Could be a good overnight short, but it is a breakout play, so you gotta give it some respect…that’s why I’m not short.

(Nasdaq: JADE) – earnings/SEC filing (finally) mover, this was my one day trade today and even though I lost a little, I’d do it again because not only was it a good risk-reward trade, but I also closed it out perfectly when the trade started to get away from me. See, I shorted 700 shares at $5.75 in the afternoon, right into0 sideways price action, after a gradual drop from the low $6s and a quick bounce up from $5.40. The stock had two choices, gradually break the sideways price action (like I like) and retest the $5.40 morning low or gradually uptrend – spiking down was also a slim possibility, but any spike up was met by short sellers and sellers who wanted another crack at $5.40. So, I was protected. Unfortunately, the stock started rising gradually, and even though it finished right near my entry point, I got out with a 5 cent loss before the 40 cent spike. Back in the ‘ole days of free trading, I woulda covered and bought and the loss on my short woulda paled in comparison to the gain on my long, but since I can’t trade freely, that was out of the question. Probable Gap Wednesday, I’ll short if it cracks $5.40, although not very aggressively since it’s somewhat of an earnings mover.

(NYSE: GA) – keeps moving gradually higher, no reason to short just yet.

(NYSE: NG) – still downtrending, although waaaay too boring, off my watchlist soon.

(Nasdaq: BIDU) – not down as much as I thought/hoped, boooooring, what a waste, turns out it was a car accident that killed the CFO, murder still a possibility, but very slim.

(Nasdaq: SWIM) – down 2% for now reason, little volume, aka why the reason I don’t hold these stocks for very long, they take too long to work out.

(Nasdaq: DSTI) – the solar winner du jour, if the run continues, I might just have to short it!

Posted in Uncategorized

  • niler7

    Do we have some pontential Buy today?

  • derevyan

    Hey Tim, love the site! Just signed up yesterday.. I also decided to give TOS a try and Im quite impressed with the software. I’ve been playing around with the available chart studies but theres a shit tonn of them and I wanted to know what were your favourite ones. Thanks

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    read the post, do u see any potential buys? no, i only buy breakouts and in this market there are none..or u get slow ass QCOR, no thanks, go with the trend

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    i dont use TOS software, i use etrade pro

  • Gertsomething

    You stopped sending your alerts by e-mail Tim? I didn’t receive an e-mail today and yesterday.

  • niler7

    Do you think QCOR will reach the 8 bucks target before mid-October?

  • Reaper

    FORSY is a British bank ADR, Fortis, unshortable. Any thoughts on NXTM? Far from ideal, but more than one up day.

  • bigjimstradingpost

    Reaper,

    Looks like $1 downside on NXTR. No shares available with my current broker and my IB account just got approved yesterday…so I need to send them some cabbage.

  • bigjimstradingpost

    Sorry NXTM

  • bigjimstradingpost

    job numbers out…159,000 net loss…unemployment at 6.1%. Looks like trading and shorting may be the best “investment” strategy for the next couple years. The pop we get from the WFC WB deal will be very short lived today…even house passage of the bail out bill will just be a chance to trade and sell into strength…cuz this markets going back down…DOW 8000 anyone??

  • niler7

    Do you trade Amex Short ETFs?

  • niler7

    Tim, in case which AMEX Short ETF would you choose?

  • master_wally

    Is there anything from preventing I.E 6.0 from working with the CHAT?

  • Gertsomething

    Yeah, IE6 doesn’t work for me either. I use Chrome for it.

  • Getshorty

    NXTM falling slowly, couldn’t get shares at IB, trying TOS

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    i dont short ETFs and of course i send emails out, some people emails bounce, thats why u have website access ands oon text messaging

  • Getshorty

    it fell 12 cents while trying to locate the stock

  • Getshorty

    Guess you don’t like NXTM cause up only 25% Tim?

  • Dan000

    For Timalerts, Tim likes supernovas and massive breakouts because of the people who will follow him, so it’s gotta be something really good for an alert. Up 25% is not good enough.

  • Getshorty

    Damn, no NXTM, well, already drop some, maybe it was for my own good, have set some alarms on stocks that got reserved (TORO and FORSY) and timalerts make my phone ring, so i’ll go get some more sleep , have slept like 15 hours this week only.

    Good luck, hope something good shows up and a timalert wakes me up

  • http://www.ontheflyguides.com Jeff C

    Shorty, how do you get TimAlerts to ring your phone? Sleep when you’re dead……

  • Dan000

    To get TIMAlerts sent to you through text, setup your email to forward admin@timalerts.com to your sms email address, and you’ll get a text. I use gmail and just had to setup a filter.

    Here’s a list of carriers sms emails:

    T-Mobile: phonenumber@tmomail.net
    Virgin Mobile: phonenumber@vmobl.com
    Cingular: phonenumber@cingularme.com
    Sprint: phonenumber@messaging.sprintpcs.com
    Verizon: phonenumber@vtext.com
    Nextel: phonenumber@messaging.nextel.com

  • niler7

    Just covered ATVI

    I personally think that given the pattern it would be up of at least 10% by the end of the day

  • brad081

    Shorted 800 Shares of TORO at 2.05.

  • Attack987

    Why the hell would you short TORO at 2.05?

  • Attack987

    Still very much green on the day.

  • niler7

    As prediceted, ATVI is growing and I strongly think it would grow more in the afternoon

  • brad081

    Insider Info…Just jokin.I throwed my lucky coin and it landed heads.

  • Getshorty

    Brad, your trade doesn’t make sense, there is a 20 cents, spread in TOro and it’s foooling around 2 all day, risk reward sucks. If I wait to sleep when I die, I’ll be sleeping either way by sunday.

    Reaper, I put a limitshort order for FORSY (Fortis NL) with a limit of $16 to keep it reserved last trade at 6.90 but bid-ask 7.05 – 7.20. last trade has been 6.90 all day.

    The TORO alarm woke me up under 1.98 , but so stacked in that range, and such a big spread I am sleeping back. Good nite

  • Getshorty

    RZ did it’s thing one more time, I was really tempted to went long on low $7s.

    CAn only work so many more days.

  • Getshorty

    FORSY stragnest stock ever, all days are Dojis (open and close at the same price, ALL DAYS. traded 290 000 shares yesterday, none today. Feels like the twilight zone

  • brad081

    Yo Shorty, At the time I entered the TORO order the spread was only a couple of cents which is ok. My mistake is putting in the short when still in the green light.

    BTW: TORO now 1.90, admittedly in profit through partial luck!

  • brad081

    Bought back the TORO position for a 10% profit. Cheap Sh,,

  • niler7

    I am buying again ATVI, check the chart and see the trend.

  • Reaper

    Hey Tim, check out http://timothysykessucks.com/

  • Getshorty

    WTF Forcy, hours ago, bid ask was 7.05 – 7.20, now bid – ask is 4.90 – 5.10

    But all day last price is 6.90. No trades!! after a 290 300 volume day ??

    Wat’s going on?
    QUe pasa?
    Que ta aconteshiendu?

  • Getshorty

    Nile, I am looking at the ATVI chart. It sucks, I see the trend and it is as broken as it gets, at the time of your last posting price was 13.10, now at 12.75, don’t see any floor.

  • Getshorty

    LBAS 45 cents spread, looks like nobody wants to get into a position for this weekend. I am sooooo going all cash for the weekend.

  • Getshorty

    Reaper, Great call on LBAS tried to short on 4.90s but neither IB nor TOS had shares. Did you get any?

  • Getshorty

    SOrry, I meant NXTM Reaper, good call on NXTM

  • Reaper

    had shares of NXTM reserved, but didn’t play it. I won’t play one of these lesser plays unless the intra-day chart pattern is perfect.

  • niler7

    Getshorty I suppose you did not follow the chart. Yesterday ATVI reached 13.62, then all the people with a minimum level of intelligence shorted. Now the stock is very low and I think it’s time to buy again. We are close to the 52 Wk Low

  • Getshorty

    Hope your minimum level of inteligence pays out (but don;t expect it really)

  • Getshorty

    buy 52 week lows, now that’s a smart idea !!!!

  • niler7

    My friend, it paid out. Please read the balance sheet of the company and learn some finance.

  • Getshorty

    Financials
    Plenty of cash and little debt, not going under any time soon as they can weather the storm for some time.

    But come on, 21 PE Ratio on a 16% YOY revenue decline and a 61% Earnings decline?

    21 PE Ratio on a cash bleed of $222 million in operating activities?

    Sorry for not knowing more finance now, Just trying to learn here, still got 2 more months to go before I Finish my MBA in Finance and still got to keep on studying for the cfa level 2 exam. But I am confident that if I keep on trying hard, one day i’ll be as smart as you and will become the one guy that can catch a falling knive and make money just by betting against the momentum.

  • niler7

    Getshorty, if you valuate a company only based on that ratios, you wasted your precious money for the MBA. Considering CFAs , many of them lost everything on the stock exchange, you make me smile my friend and I thank you for that.

  • Getshorty

    Got your smile back, not going to spend my time doing a whole analysis of a company I ain’t think is worth. I agree with you that lots of CFAs are losing their shirt, the reason being they play fundamentals. That is why I play momentum.

    Best of lucks

  • hungrydru

    Tim, what’s your take on some of the larger cap stocks that’s displayed the same ridiculous manipulation that the pennies have? Namely, AIG, FRE, FNM. Thanks!

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    i dont care about large cap stocks, they’re not as predictable, see my DVDs:

    http://www.pennystocking.com

  • Getshorty

    Hey TIm, let’s pray there’s a bounce this week so pumpers can get to work.

    I am getting anxious.

    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity
    I won’t trade until there is a worthy opportunity

    AAAHHHHH !!!!

  • http://e-biohealth.com/ Appesat

    my God, i thought you were going to chip in with some decisive insght at the end there, not leave it with

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