CHATROOM

BIDU Unpredictable Event Makes It Too Scary To Buy…For Now

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In my latest AOL video , you’ll hear me recommend (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a good buy. It’s the Chinese Google and with a $10 billion marketcap, it’s valued highly, but since its growing like gangbusters and profits have been strong, I still thought it could go higher, especially if Facebook can be valued at $15 billion.

But, today, the company announced their CFO has died in an accident. While this is very sad, traders must look to what this means for the stock. Luckily, my AOL video came out after the market close, so there’s still time for me to take back my recommendation. Which I’m doing right now. This stock is already so volatile, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it tank $50 or more Monday. Even if it bounces (as I anticipate many people saying that kind of a move is an overreaction), it’s still a perfect double top in the $420-$430 range (which I previously expected it to break through, becoming a nice breakout play).

You gotta remember Wall Street is all about perception, and the rumors that have already started swirling (ex. was he “killed because he was going to come clean”, why was this news not announced on Friday since he died on Thursday, he looks like a young guy so was this really an accident? etc.) will give the 2.75 million shares short some confidence and make more than a few buyers nervous, even if they are all most likely false.

Also, since it’s a somewhat private matter, I doubt the company will be too forthcoming with all the details (unless the stock really gets hammered). So this is a particularly scary situation — it’s probably best to stay on the sidelines as this stock is going to show everyone the meaning of volatility. I’ll look to buy on a dip when the volume/volatility settles down and if it forms some nice sideways price action.

Posted in AOL, Videos

  • Dan000

    Dammit. I want more money. But no plays. =(

  • awgregory

    Tim, are you only posting trades (if any happen) on this post or just in the chat room?

    Thanks

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    any trades, i’ll post them everywhere

  • hcabral

    Just arriving… have you guys been playing with FNM, FRE, LEH, CC, commodities (lots of them under $20 now)?

  • bao_t2008

    Tim,
    What do you think about AAII?
    They opened at 150% from the previous day, and the chart has a downtrend all over it. One reason that they made a gain today was from a lawsuit against Boeing. The financial reports are pretty ugly.

  • kaim2196

    Yep, I had a killer week. 300% gains from FRE (long) and 200% gains from SIL (short).

  • kaim2196

    AAII looks great so far. Tons of inside corruption there. I’d wait it out a bit tho.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    good find on AAII, anybody find shares to short? i didnt even try, try trading with 700 traders on your back, volume of 35k aint gonna cut it lol

  • desai101

    wat woulb the exit price on AAII?

  • awgregory

    Tim what about shorting RZ here? Got 1500 reserved on TOS

  • awgregory

    If it cracks below 8.50?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    i wouldnt short RZ with this pattern

  • awgregory

    Tim check out RZ…is that afternoon panic?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes
  • Reaper

    what’s wrong with the pattern on RZ, Tim? Is it the fact that it has dropped in the morning and then spiked on multiple days? The interday chart looks pretty good.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    nyse stock, not good history of reversals after spikes, already took out stop losses…not a bad play, just not ideal

  • Reaper

    ah, yes, good point about the stop losses particularly.

  • betoned

    Tim Do you send the picks to our emails? if so when ? day night evening?
    Thanks Tony

  • Getshorty

    Shorted stupidly 500 shares of RZ at 8.03, ready to cover and go long if it broke 9 on volume, couldnt get there and averaged up 500 more at 8.63, covered 500 at 8.33, breaking even so far, still short 500 shares. FIrst down day, but don’t want to bet that much in this environment, completely agree with Tim in that it is not ideal play. But worse mistake was to not cover after it went against me, was too fast, 8.14 to 8.74 in 2 minutes. That’s the thing with not being able to put stops.

    Worst of all, it is a big waste of time, was sitting with my group preparing a presentation about the fall of LTCM and couldn’t concentrate or be to productive for looking at the ticker at the bottom of the screen, set alarms, but kept on going off.

    GOod thing the presentation is coming great, partners where nobel prizes which created the black sholes models, nobody should have known better than them how to control risk. Most of other partners top MIT finance guys, but bottom line they leveraged their asses out, $ 1 trillion positions on $ 7 Billion in order to try to sustain 30% plus yearly return on a $7 billion fund. You can’t beat the market if you are the market, and when things go bad and you are that visible, other funds will fire to you like shooting fish in a barrel.

    I end up the presentation with the Keynes quote “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”

  • Reaper

    getshorty — you chased it. That was dumb. Around 8.03 you should have waited for an 8 break.

  • Getshorty

    Actually I shorted RZ when saw it at 7.96, my order got executed at 8.03 because of the immediate spike. Think my wrong was not to wait for a clear break down under $8. If there were stop losses this beast could have closed around $6.

    It was dumb anyway.

    Did you got news if you’ll be able to keep your $10k google profits from yesterday, hope, the reverse of trades didn’t get you.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/10/01/5-wild-minutes-for-google.aspx