CHATROOM

TIM: Thickheaded Thursday

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TIM $12,797.84 (-$11 on the day, up $382.84 on the week)

This was a wild day in the markets and I’m pretty disappointed in myself. Not only did I not finish the day with any gains, but I pissed away my last remaining day trade so I can’t day trade again until next Tuesday (in honor of this ridiculous Pattern Day Trading Rule which didn’t exist the last t

ime I had $12k). Of course, I can still trade if I hold overnight, but I hate holding overnight. I’ve got a lot of frustration to let out–be warned.

Pre-market (before 9:30am), I saw all the solar plays going crazy—a result of FSLR’s tremendous earnings blowout (the stock held onto a $50 gain all day!). All the wannabe FSLRs: STP, SPWR, ESLR, HOKU and JASO were all surging, but ESLR looked to be surging out of sync with the others, as its shares were up nearly 20% on just a few hundred thousand traded while everyone else was just up 10% or so. This is the way I trade—I look for outliers like this and try to determine if their special strength or weakness is deserved. In ESLR’s case, I thought not. Sure, the stock has been a on a tear, but a $2 gap up to $15.67 was too much to not attract sellers and short sellers, so I tried to short 200 shares.

Whoops, hard to borrow. Thinkorswim has near immediate customer service so I opened my handy chat window and got the required borrow within a few minutes. This actually saved me quite a bit because I shorted my 200 shares at $16.13 (50 cents higher), right near the early morning peak. The price went back and forth between $15.80 and $16.20 for 20 or so minutes and I ended up covering at $15.73—a gain of $70, after commissions. I didn’t want to hold much longer because I was scheduled to film a video for AOL at 11am and I knew from experience not to keep a trade like this open while I was gone (turned out to be the right call because the stock surged nearly $1 before settling back around my exit point). Decent trade, low risk, low reward, but I really prefer to short sell these kinds of plays in the afternoon because there’s much less volatility as the overnight news and expectations have already been absorbed into the price.

So, I filmed a sweet clip at AOL HQ and had a great chat about the future of internet video with them. After stopping off for a quick bite , I returned to find many of my favorite stocks getting crushed along with the overall market. JRJC down $5, LULU down $4, SYNA down $5, VMW down $13, ISRG down $25, BIDU down $45!!?!??! Very bearish, but people were probably panicking a little too much. Should I risk it? Hmmm, yes! I knew I was down to my last day trade so my goal was to find a stock to buy to hold overnight. Sure, the solar plays ENER, ESLR, FSLR and the like were holding their gains and could strengthen with any market bounce, but noooooo, I wanted a bounce play.

LULU was out as it had just breached sideways price action (meaning that sideways price would act as resistance on the ay up), BIDU and ISRG were too expensive for TIM, JRJC tanked quickly—who knew what was going there (and they were up nicely yesterday), and SYNA, well, that stock just wasn’t volatile enough for me. I ended up buying 50 shares of VMW at $90.81 as it was down from $125 just a few days ago and $97 just a few hours ago. All I wanted was a bounce of $4-$6/share, shouldn’t be too difficult, right? I’d have the patience to hold!

Yeah, guess what—I have no patience and since the stock showed no signs of bouncing, I began worrying about it gapping down overnight and losing $4-$6/share. Couldn’t risk that so I sold my 50 shares at $89.39 just a few hours into the position, wiping out all my ESLR gains and $10 in commission-related losses. Idiot.

vmw.png

Good news was I cut my losses quickly and was probably right to do so as the stock never bounced like SYNA, LULU, BIDU and ISRG. LULU actually bounced perfectly. Bad news—why was I in this in the first place?!?!?! Trying to impress people who read my website? Trying to claw my way to $25k? Who knew—either way I shouldn’t have been in this kind of position with my tiny account. In reality, there weren’t any spectacular trade setups today (have patience, I swear they exist) so I’m actually kind of glad that I can’t day trade until next week—I need to put aside all the pressure, expectations, naysayers and just focus on trading worthy opportunities, rare as they may be.

Discipline problems as usual, hopefully I get an abnormal amount of hate mail tonight to rub it in, maybe that’ll teach me!

PS Oh yeah CYGT had a nice PR this morning talking what they’re unveiling next week at IAAPA. This paragraph sounds interesting:

“For Internet sales, Cygnus will unveil ceShop(TM) V3, a revolutionary new technology that converts informational websites into immersive, online stores simply by adding a few lines of code. This new concept retains the customer inside the client’s branded website, providing a seamlessly integrated shopping experience.”

Who knows–I’ll report what I see next week. For now, there were some buyers today, but the volume was pathetic so it’s meaningless.

Warning: TIM, Timothy Sykes, and the Easter Bunny have positions in CYGT.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider some of these stocks to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

Posted in CYGT

  • be-the-ball

    Tim,

    now that is a nice pattern you shorted into. much closer to the DVD patterns. Too bad I couldn’t get shares reserved today.

    you have a lot of followers now, soon as you shorted the stock tanked.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    damn, perfect crack in price, i’m not even tempted to cover, especially since everyone would then label be a pump and dumper…now its a question of whether or not its gonna finish green on the day, if it doesnt, say hello to the $3s tomorrow!

  • MikeY

    Only managed to get 350 @ 4.33

    Not looking to get much out of this, just testing the waters…

  • milingz

    fuck, too slow. would you suggest anytning in in 30s?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    didnt have to short when i did, u guys shoulda seen this a mile away

  • YoungGunz

    locked in at 4.52 with my 400 shares. come on $3′s

  • YoungGunz

    I was fighting with myself asking “WWTD? This looks like its fading and could tip over the edge anytime.” Then magically the timalert popped up in my gmail notifier and i took a split second to see uss and i slammed the sell order in as fast as i could.

  • gil

    sa few second after you sent the email the stock tanked 30 cents do you think to do with you

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    normally i’d take my 30 cents/share and be done with it, but i cant do that and not be labelled a pump and dumper…so i’m holding, twas inevitable once too many people made too much $ off my picks, so thats why i gotta be extra choosy now to aim for patterns that could/should take days to play out

  • YoungGunz

    damn, wish this thing would just get the fuck below 4.30s where i can get a nice cushion to jump out at if it decides to turn back.

  • be-the-ball

    Tim,

    non-trading question…

    what do you use to follow people on twitter? Do you receive all tweets on your phone or do you keep your twitter page open in a browser window? Seems that IM would be the best way to receive tweets but it has been down for 2 months.

    thx

  • YoungGunz

    so are you saying that the trades you’ve been making lately may get you in trouble if you keep doing them with so many people following you?

  • YoungGunz

    holy shit batman thing just tanked nearly 40 cents and went back to 4.2 before i could react

  • TheParadox

    I don’t have money in my account (yet), but im looking at the chart and watching the ticker.

    Tim, could really this alert you sent out caused the drop off? Its out almost .45 so far.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    twitter realiability sux, i dont use the phone function

    no i doubt i caused this drop, it was the pattern guys, there are things called stop losses

  • Getshorty

    And sykes does it again.

    Couldn’t get shares of this one.. congrats guys

  • YoungGunz

    took profit on 100 of my 400 shares at 3.97 just to calm the nerves I probably should have just left it alone to potentially hold into the close for a morning panic or something.

  • YoungGunz

    that and to not get dinged for a pdt

  • be-the-ball

    thx on twitter Tim.

    nice work USS

  • Reaper

    grabbed some more USS when it went red on the day. grabbed even more when it went solidly under $4.

  • YoungGunz

    Yeah, I agree with Tim. The opening price was 4.72 and it fell apart once it faded to 4.60. Which makes a lot sense for a buyer to put a stop in that range, especially with it sitting tight to the opening price when you’re long and going to lunch :)

  • be-the-ball

    see Tim, your fear of being labeled a pump and dumper is making you serious coin today.

    enforced patience

  • milingz

    tim, you’re fucking awesome…shorted yesterday at 3.90 down to the 60′s…shoulda just held the damn thing all the way down! you’re good man

    closed my position from 4.20 to 3.80…

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    covere dat 4.05, i’m an idiot

  • YoungGunz

    covered at 4.50?!?!?! you mean 4.05?

    that was a while ago…it went prettymuch straight to 2.30s before it flatten and tanked again.

  • be-the-ball

    geez, Tim I am beginning to think you don’t want to get over $25K.

    Next time you want to cover, go take a shit or something, guarantee you will come back feeling relieved and making double what you had.
    :-)

  • YoungGunz

    i mean 4.30s

  • milingz

    ok, good work boys…i take it most of us are in the green now :)

  • gburleson1

    Tim,
    I received your alert this morning and reserved 1500 shares, I received your alert this evening (remember I am in Baghdad) and I put my order in and dealing with Joe I got in at 4.28 a lil late but basing it off of your input and looking at my charts I was cool with it. Sold at 3.80, I am sure I left money on the table, but I am good with making 721.92 for the day. Thank you. YOu are a Great American.

  • Reaper

    Good thing about trading big is that I can’t be a wuss like Tim and cover for a piddling gain … this is the the first down day, still up big on the week and two weeks (but down big over longer time frames), so plenty more downside left over the next couple days.

  • Reaper

    Covered 20% of my position @ 3.3.

  • YoungGunz

    I got out at 3.68 it then dropped to 3.30 now it pulled up again to 3.50s I agree with reaper though that this thing could probably die but I used a pretty good size of my account to go in with.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    good work guys, i want $ profits posted and u better be telling your damn friends!

  • Reaper

    From GOTS from a few minutes ago:

    “Laura: what 13th kinda means is there are run of the mill long and short daytrades everyday that we play. nice 5-10% profit and move on. The USS and WRSP are a gift dropped into your lap. Hang in there to really profit.”

    Good reminder for those here from some people that are damn good traders.

  • awgregory

    Tim, What is the quickest and most reliable way to get the alert, or know when you post it?

  • adairjm

    Got in late to USS but took 1000 shares from 3.80 to 3.30 for a quick $500 ride. Thanks Tim!

    BTW…I’ve been burned with POS penny stocks selling nothing but promises many times. Thanks to you I’m now taking advantage of the garbage.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    alerts are emailed and posted, soon we’ll have other options too,b ut this shouldnt have been a surprise, USS was my #1 potential short today, just had to have the right fading price action–watch my DVD PennyStocking, u’ll understand everything better

  • YoungGunz

    I have a gmail email address and gmail notified that will give me a little pop up quick to tell me i have an email. there are plenty of email notification widgets you can use though. so far his alerts come as fast as email which is usually about 1 minute.

  • Reaper

    Tim – your DVD didn’t do a great job of explaining intra-day price action. For example, my thought was to short USS when it broke yesterday’s close, not today’s open. Which is more important? Going red or hitting the low of the day?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    dvd couldnt detail intraday cuz i had no charts! now i do, stay tuned for DVD updates…going red on the day is much more important, i did it early so others could get in on the probable drop too

  • Reaper

    Yeah, I understand why you couldn’t do intra-day charts on the DVD. I didn’t get the bulk of my position ’till after USS went red, and I’m doing okay so far.

  • Reaper

    Covered another bunch of my USS shorts. Down to 40% of my original position.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    awesome goode, i want a $ profit after u’re done with it, trying to break $10k in combined profits from TIMalerts subscribers!

  • Reaper

    Tim – I’ll have to net today’s gains against my $2.3k in losses from an accidental short of USS (I pulled a Tim and didn’t put my limit sell high enough). Even despite that I’m up about $4.5k on USS so far (still in it with 4k shares).

  • Reaper

    That accidental short of USS was yesterday.

  • adairjm

    IMO…intraday trading is fairly predictable and has less risk. You just have to watch the price action and get a feel for it.

    USS pushed high of day twice and failed. At some point, these 3 or 4 day pump-ups just dump. That happened today at 4.60…then all hell broke loose. Scared “longs” started “locking in profits” and shorts enjoyed the carnage. :)

  • Reaper

    NYSE press release on USS from yesterday that Tim mentioned:
    http://www.nyse.com/press/1217240108807.html

  • YoungGunz

    You gotta put those place holder orders waaaaay above the current price. I had mine at 7. I saw another sellers set at like $3,333 pop into the level 2 at one point.

  • milingz

    thing keeps falling…damn!

  • Reaper

    YoungGunz — yeah, I knew that. I was just stupid yesterday–things were looking boring so I wasn’t paying much attention to the market. Then while I was having lunch I start hearing the chiming of TOS saying an order was getting filled, and I said “Oh shit!” as I jumped across the room to my computer. By then my short was completely filled.

    Just shorted a few more shares @ IB on this little bounce.

  • Getshorty

    bjgp was damn right, couldn’t get any shares neither.

  • Reaper

    Still short 4200 shares USS at an average price of $3.85.

    Here are my realized trades for the day:

    USS Short 7000 $4.030
    USS Cover 7000 $3.336

    Profit: $4,852.77 20.78%

    Loss from accidental short yesterday: -$2176.25

    Net realized profit so far: $2676.52