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Thursday’s Watchlist, Damn Long Term Investments!

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Wed 7th of Nov, 2007 08:48:58 PM

I have a big problem—while looking for speculative plays, I keep finding solid companies that are great investments, but not right for TIM. So, I write about them. Now you know why I don’t have any positions in stocks like Synaptics (Nasdaq: SYNA) and China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC) and yet I really like them.

Now, tonight, I f

ind the near $32 billion provider of satellite broadcasting, DirecTV (NYSE: DTV ) at $26.78. They just reported strong earnings yesterday and those numbers managed to help the stock buck the trend today by finishing higher—and breaking out to a new all-time high in the process. We’ll see if it’s enough to withstand the coming bear market (maybe just short-term, but who knows, futures are already down 1% overnight)

Once you read the conference call transcript, (it’s long, but just suck it up and read it!) you’ll see that this is some incredible business. Churn (customers leaving) is down and growth due to their new premium products like HD and DVR capabilities is up big time. Overall, quarterly revenues were up 18%, but both Latin American revenues and the number of US subscribers to its core product rose 45%. And, to top it all off, average monthly revenue per subscriber rose from $73 to $79—chew on that Six Flags (NYSE: SIX! (they’ve been trying to get their customers to fork over $40/visit). All this for a forward PE of 18—not too shabby. I full expect this stock to trade significantly higher over the next year, but it’s going to be a painstakingly gradual process, filled with many dips. Most importantly, this is a perfect technical breakout, look at that chart, it’s gorgeous!

dtv Thursdays Watchlist, Damn Long Term Investments!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for TIM plays, there’s not much—the market is gonna get killed in the morning and it could keep going or bounce in the afternoon. We’ll just have to wait and see, but I’d like to buy into some panic, if possible. China Grentech (Nasdaq: GRRF), a Chinese wireless play, reported strong earnings, but it’s got a horrible chart so I’m not expecting much.

 

As I noted earlier First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) really came in with amazing earnings, quarterly revenues came in around $160 million, nearly 30% higher than the $120 million they were expected to have. Wow! And they raised guidance nicely, too. You don’t see this kind of magnitude in an earnings blowout very often so the 5 million shares that are sold short are definitely gonna need some barf bags and the stock should be strong all day long. The future looks brighter than ever as this is a solar play with actual revenues and profits. Amazing, looks like the run will continue in a potentially big way. Should also help all the other solar plays ESLR, STP, SPWR, blah blah blah. I’m not touching any of them until I see what the overall market has in store (remember, 3 out of 4 stock follow the market)

Another interesting earnings play is Turbochef (Nasdaq: OVEN) as their revenues doubled and losses were stemmed, both beating expectations. Originally, they got their big lift from Subway, but not they’re getting new customers like Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and the stock is close to breaking out (although the stock has seen better days, so there’s resistance above). Definitely put it on my watchlist.

SEC Warning: Timothy Sykes has no positions, no vested interest and doesn’t know anybody who has any of these stocks.

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  • YoungGunz
    Its when a stock goes pretty much breaks out and goes straight up. The bigger their pumped the harder they fall.
  • arcus
    YoungGunz...What did you mean when you mentioned PYBX going "supernova"? I picked up some shares last night, we'll see if the pump takes off. BeaconEquity.com is pumping it also. Two pumps might be a good thing.

    http://www.beaconequity.com/adpages/PYBX


    YoungGunz "Yeah get that bastard up over a $1. Would like to get a nice supernova this week."
  • dannyyyyk
    easiest $600's I ever made. Thanks Tim! (TGC)
  • be-the-ball
    YoungGunz,

    If you are holding out for high probability returns as in the plays from his DVD, this wasn't a play to take.

    If you are scalping for some coin intraday this was a fairly good setup.
  • taxwise1
    Bought TGC @1.88 earlier today in my Roth IRA. Maybe a short squeeze here at end of the day. Now going up close to $2.00
  • YoungGunz
    haha...hindsights 20/20...Just trying to figure out if this would be something that Tim would have went for if he wasn't busy in meetings or if I am misinterpreting what he's trying to teach.
  • be-the-ball
    Tim, I am kidding, don't get grumpy...

    ;-)


    boring day....
  • be-the-ball
    In TimSpeak it is an afternoon fade if it stays down and was a perfect shorting opportunity. If it spikes back up he will tell you never to short until the first down day, per the DVD.

    Tim Cramer wins either way...
  • gburleson1
    Shorted 1,000 sharesof USS at 4.75 covered at 4.23, not a bad day from Baghdad. Thanks TIM.
  • adairjm
    LOL...seemed like a fade to me. I've been on the wrong side of the afternoon fade way tooo many times!
  • YoungGunz
    I haven't bought the dvd but I think this is what he commonly refers to as an afternoon fade.
  • adairjm
    I almost got in at 4.70, but couldn't be sure. Sometimes the spread was 15 cents and you were automatically down a significant portion.
  • YoungGunz
    Atleast from what I have learned just freeloading on the boards that was a good point to jump in on. I may be misinterpreting the pattern compared to others that are similar that Tim has played. I guess we'll see what he has to say when he gets back from all his meetings.
  • YoungGunz
    Yeah, kinda wish I hit it on that squeeze that ran to $5. Would have been a nice profit.
  • adairjm
    Shorted USS 4.50 to 4.10. Took profits. The bid/ask spread is too scary. Runs fast either way.
  • Jason
    Short VISN 21.90
  • YoungGunz
    Seeing a couple 8000 and 2400 sellers popping in now there gone. thing dropped to 4.3
  • YoungGunz
    USS looks like it is consolidating though. I just have a hard time judging the tipping point for guys like these. Been hanging out at upper 4.50s to 4.60s. You probably ended up playing that squeeze to 4.90 correctly milingz if thats what it was.
  • YoungGunz
    Hey, no worries you made a little money. coulda got 40-50 cents if you were fast. I am not experienced enough to tell if htis thing is showing signs of having a late afternoon fade or what.
  • brent
    what did you do milingz. you short at 4.90 or long? looked like you went long on #22
  • milingz
    that was fucking dumb and undisciplined, but i managed to get out for a quick gain at 4.70
  • brent
    is this thing, USS, going to test resist at 7? This is looking like a short squeeze?
  • milingz
    got in a 4.90...thinking about covering now at 4.60

    DAMN TIMMY...
  • milingz
    uss gapping up...60 cents in seconds
  • brent
    looks like we
  • Reaper
    OVEN up on news that SBUX will keep doing hot sandwiches.
  • Jason
    TIM, check out the chart for OVEN...Possible short
  • sneaky30KDM
    FBTX is moving slow, but looks to be coming out of a cup & handle it started earlier this month
  • YoungGunz
    ToS doesn't ever have any MNLU...People been trying to reserve for the past week looking for it to tank
  • milingz
    PYBX got pumped back in june (28th)...opened at 1 and jumped to 1.30...why cant they do that now? fuckers...

    TOS said they had no shares...i asked at 8am
  • sur1102
    MNLU falling
  • YoungGunz
    make that like 2-3 dollars...that would be something.
  • YoungGunz
    Yeah get that bastard up over a $1. Would like to get a nice supernova this week.
  • wish theyd do a betetr job pum[ping PYBX then!
  • milingz
    yepp, got a pump for PYBX from another mailer as well.
  • YoungGunz
    lot of action in the pipeline for USS
  • arcus
    Hototc.com is pumping PYBX. Any thoughts?
  • YoungGunz
    So when looking at USS for example at what price would it have to go down to before you'd look to jump on it for a short? IDAE another example it is 13 cents off highs. how far past it's highs would you let it go before pulling the trigger?
  • bobbymapp
    I'm looking at WIBC as a possible breakout. And NABI as an eventual short (its only up about .75 from old highs)
  • arcus
    I hear ya Avarice. Looking for a buy until my margin account is ready.
  • Avarice
    Still waiting on my margin account so that I can begin shorting. USS looks nice for a fall to about 2.50. Oh the $$$ to be made!!!
  • YoungGunz
    I was able to get some of USS though
  • YoungGunz
    Tos no shares of QUICK at 6:35 cst.
  • YoungGunz
    how come i didn't get this emailed yet? Don't you send it 7am est? Maybe I'm getting my times mixed up.
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