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Solar’s Eleven: If Solar Stocks Were Cast in a Movie

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Sun 11th of Nov, 2007 04:57:56 PM

Now I see how tough it is to be a casting director—it sure wasn’t easy to pick which solar stocks would be right for Solar’s Eleven. But maybe this list will be as popular as the movie Ocean ’s Eleven so I can cast more characters in the sequel.

First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR ) as George Clooney aka Danny Ocean—this now $15 billion solar cell maker has risen nearly tenfold from $25 to $207 over the past year. Huge revenues and earnings (quarterly revs. of $160 million vs. expectations of $120 million, profits up tenfold) and their charisma (blew out analyst estimates by nearly 30%) helped them win the part. But like Danny Ocean, FSLR’s charisma can only take them so far—they’re reliant on a somewhat limited supply of tellurium, which could hurt margins down the road.

Sunpower (Nasdaq: SPWR ) as Brad Pitt aka Rusty Ryan—the $10.7 billion solar rival is definitely the second leader of the pack, having risen from $33 to $129 over the past year. Like Brad Pitt, their solar panels are more aesthetically pleasing than competing panels (according to RBC analyst Stuart Bush)

Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR ) as Matt Damon aka Linus Caldwell—the $1.4 billion maker of next generation solar cells is the rookie on the block since they won’t be able to deliver their solar cells until mid-2008. Still, since they’re part of this popular team, their stock has nearly doubled this year from $8 to $14.

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK ) as Bernie Max aka Frank Catton—the $4.2 billion solar wafer maker has been embroiled in an inventory reporting investigation. Like Bernie Mac’s character, it sounds like some LDK employees might be facing some time in the pen.

Hoku Scientific (Nasdaq: HOKU ) as Don Cheadle aka Basher Tarr—this $140 million material science company has been dealing with all the fun details that go into engineering and construction their Polysilicon Plant. Like Don Cheadle’s character, they’re not in this game so much for the money (all they have is losses and very little revenues)—instead they just want to pull off the job!

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER ) as Carl Reiner aka Saul Bloom—this $1.25 billion solar cell maker is an old solar pro, having been a publicly-traded stock for over a decade. But, like Carl Reiner’s character, they were replaced by young upstarts. They want back in!

DayStar Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: DSTI ) and Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: ASTI ) as twin brothers (c’mon how perfect are their ticker symbols!) Scott Caan and Casey Affleck aka Turk and Virgil Malloy—these $160 millionish solar plays are like their characters in that they’re very young and immature. Neither company has more than $1 million in annual revenues, but they both have great potential.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR ) as Elliott Gould aka Reuben Tishkoff—this $16 billion behemoth is another industry old-timer, having been traded as a stock for over a decade. Like Elliott Gould’s character, they’re behind the whole operation, providing the materials other solar cell makers need.

JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO ) as Eddie Jemison aka Livingston Dell—this $2.7 billion solar cell maker, like Eddie Jemison’s character, is not cool. After tripling in price from their $20 IPO price, JASO lost 22% on Friday after an analyst noted their concern over future margins.

And last but not least there’s a host of solar plays auditioning to takeover the role of Yen, originally played by Chinese acrobat Shaobo Qin. $1.3 billion Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ), $620 million Solarfun Power Holdings (Nasdaq: SOLF ), $350 million China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN ) and don’t let the name confuse you $300 million Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ ) are all vying for the role. It’s a tough call (due to the flexibility required) so I think we’re gonna need a second round of auditions for this one.

I have no positions, I’m just a casting director

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  • yaktipper
    I went back and did another comparison. Covestor says currently 91% return which doesn't track commissions.

    My actual account return after commissions is 77%. Actual return before commissions is 91%. Now I'm mad that I spent that much in commissions. >:(

    Not tracking cash positions exaggerates returns, but Covestor also has problems calculating returns from day trades and problems calculating when you scale in and out of a stock if you only have one holding. Also if you ever trade on margin and are > 100%, Covestor return and actual return will be out of synch.
  • yaktipper
    I'm sure they will have cash position at some point. Probably soon. I know they are currently reworking some of the interface to add features. If you ever have suggestions for them, submit them, and don't be surprised if you hear back from the president.
  • bestdeception
    It's not, I just wish they showed what % the stock was versus total portfolio, cash and all. Looks deceiving if it says you're 100% in 1 stock, when really you just have 80% cash on the sidelines. Thanks for the response.
  • yaktipper
    Usually 20 to 60% in. Very rarely 100%. Margin trade even more rarely, but I have money I can move in to cover the margin, so I am just using margin as a convenience once in a while.

    Covestor can't show % cash, and I didn't think it was important to anyone to see the actual $$ amounts.
  • bestdeception
    Wow Yaktipper, just looking at your covestor account (I'm on there now, bestdeception), and you just have 1 holding. Are you going all in with 1 holding? Or is that just a small % of your total cash? Are most of you guys putting most all of your capital into these swing trades?? I'm nickel and diming these trades, but only with like 10-15% of my portfolio. Just curious.
  • adairjm
    Man, Investorslive really nailed MNKD. With that stock and Tim's call on USS, I'm having a pretty damn good week.

    This forum has been great for bouncing stock plays around. Hope everyone else is finding it as useful as me.

    Keep up guys and let's run more POS stocks into the ground!

    Jason
  • AdamN
    Holding WEL long overnight here. 2.63 was my entry. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
  • bobbymapp
    About that day trading question:
    When I was using Zecco a couple of months ago, I had already made 2 day trades one week. Then I did what I thought was only one more; when I bought 100 shares of a stock, then bought 100 more, and finally selling all 200. Evidentally that counted as two day trades, because I was tagged for making 4 daytrades that week.
  • adairjm
    Thought about WEL for possible gap up tomorrow, but there didn't seem to be much enthusiasm, so held off.

    Never got MNKD shares to short, so didn't even try. Sold my long position at 3.91, which turned out about perfect.
  • Reaper
    Holding PSTI short overnight.
  • YoungGunz
    I laid off of mnkd. Didn't want to trade just to trade. we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.
  • YoungGunz
    Famous Dave's BBQ, tastes so good, makes you wanna slap yo mama!

    They're a good restaurant.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Well Dave definitely KICKED my ass...
    Gave back all my earnings from my ETFC flip this morning.

    SOLR setting up for me though... should be able to sneak back some of my flushed $$$
  • YoungGunz
    MNKD seems to be breaking down here near the close. Anyone thinking of shorting into the close for a possible gap down tomorrow or do you think its too risky to have a gap up tomorrow?
  • Mark
    anybody shorting alus here end of day?
  • yaktipper
    WEL 2.66 and climbing slowly, got in long at 2.58.
  • Reaper
    HEV not volatile enough. Good long-term fundamental short IMHO. I wrote about HEV awhile ago, caught it before Andrew Left.
    http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/14/ener1-stoc...

    I'm not short HEV.
  • TheParadox
    HEV looks like a possible play tomorrow... anyone agree? they are a fruad too: http://www.citronresearch.com/index.php/2008/07...
  • brent
    i "think": until you sell 'xyz', the bought stock, it does not count as a 'roundtrip'. if you sell, the 3 seperate lots you bought, at one time that would be one trade count against your 'pdt'. if you sell them seperately then each count individually.
  • TheParadox
    is anyone long on WEL?
  • yaktipper
    Tony Ellis was looking at getting in WEL long at 2.55 breakout, like bobbymapp just posted it's now at 2.58-2.60
  • TheParadox
    ... your probably right. i would love to test that theory out... but i don't feel like wasting the trade or the money.
  • lamecoder
    I'm sure it's not 3, because a day trade has to be a round trip (buy and sell) to constitute a day trade.
  • TheParadox
    wow, i dunno, i've "asked" myself the same question, but im pretty sure its 3. The rule as i see it is (1) transaction, in your example, there were 3 transactions.

    It would be nice (make sense too) to have 3 trades where a trade is a buy and a sell of 1 complete instrument, regardless of the position. so if you bought 500 yesterday. you can buy 500 today, and sell 500 and use only 1 trade, sell the other 500 for 2 trades... and finally buy and sell another 500 for 3 trades.

    or you could just ditch the rule.
  • yaktipper
    I have a stupid question myself. Anything wrong with setting a contingency order on a potential breakout, at the price you would pull the trigger, or is there an advantage to being right there when it happens and placing the order manually?
  • yaktipper
    Never done it myself but I think I remember someone saying that does count as two.
  • lamecoder
    I have a day trading rule question for you guys:

    If I buy a stock two times (two completely separate orders) in a day then sell all the shares the same day, does that count as two day trades (might be a stupid question but I'd like to make sure)?

    Thanks
  • TheParadox
    bigjim - i wouldn't feel comfortable holding that short over night, it seems like there is too much risk, and you upside really can't be that great. To me, it would seem smart to make a small loss and walk away from uncertainity, than to risk a heavier loss for an uncertain gain. You can't force a trade. It seems like thats what your doing.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Like I have a choice, but DAVE is also starting to fade and will hold my short overnight...
  • bobbymapp
    WEL breaking out.
  • Reaper
    Looks like PSTI will just slowly fade into the afternoon. I'll probably hold my short overnight.
  • Reaper
    Fuck! Why does PSTI have to fall while I'm eating?! Lunch interrupted ...
  • adairjm
    Good move on PSTI. Ameritrade wouldn't let me short it...non-marginable security.
  • Reaper
    Davey - The new broker I am trying is primarily a prime broker for hedge funds. They won't even speak to you unless you have a really big account (if you don't think you have a big account, you don't). If you have under $100k, you can't do much better than having accounts at both TOS and IB. Shouldn't even consider the next tier above them unless you are seriously trading full time. One broker that may be of interest for those with >$100k and shorting very actively is Genesis Securities. They have a very good easy to borrow list, cheap commissions (they'll match IB's prices, maybe beat them if you trade 10k shares per day), pre-borrows on hard to borrow stocks, and an awesome platform. You would have to pay about $200/month in software and data fees, though.

    Genesis securities' shortable list can be found here:
    http://www.gndt.com/support/shortlist.htm

    PSTI now as a nice 8k @ 1.75 ask. I'm looking better now.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Ha Ha...Love Ya Tim
  • anyone shorting DAVE is a friggin moron, its an earnings mover!
  • tradertomcat
    brent not if your a broker ;) they are under 0.004 per share
  • bigjimstradingpost
    EVEN Better...filled DAVE short at $8.47!!!
    Now tank BITCH!
  • bigjimstradingpost
    OK
    DAVE has run it's course.
    I shorted way too soon at $8...but am going to double down now at $8.44.
    She's gonna drop 10% now that the conf call is over and other than a share buyback...not all that positive...
  • Davey
    What is the new broker your trying Reaper?
  • yaktipper
    Not boring! ALUS and VISN were right there today. Too bad I was too lazy too keep watching VISN.
  • Reaper
    brent - yes, IB is cheap. There is a minimum of $1 commission for each trade. You pay separate data fees through IB, though. $15/mo for LVL 2. I am about to try a broker with $0.01 per share commissions. Precludes playing sub-$2 stocks, but I am willing to pay more to get good stock borrows and a good trading platform.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    TMR seems stuck at $3.20.
    No volume or movement...
    Boring day...
  • brent
    % = $
  • brent
    ahhhh. i see. boy that would be cheap.. like % .005 per share? $.50 for the lot... pretty good... That is y i'm going to IB when funds allow...
  • bigjimstradingpost
    I monitored the conference call. Sure doesn't seem worthy of a 26% uptick...although I also know Tim would never approve of this short...

    BIG JIM

    Famous Dave
  • Reaper
    brent - lots of people pay per share commissions, such as through Interactive Brokers (.5 cents per share).
  • brent
    Getshorty: good job shorty. missed yet another one. i was watching that thing for a few days. gave up when we started talking earnings. Then there you go and profit
  • brent
    how can they do that. 100 per lot. seems like commissions would kill 'em.
  • tradertomcat
    Someones quietly building a position in TMR @ 3.20 in 100 lots, its been mostly sideways range for past 8 weeks.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Yea lame... Hesitated to double down... Gonna wait and take my lumps at $8.50 if she hits.
    I just listened to the conferene call. Nothing really exciting except confirmation they are going to continue share buy back of up to 500,000 shares next month...
  • Ross
    Just got out on MNKD it popped to 4.0 :) A small profit enough to pay for the next few trades at least
  • Reaper
    PSTI is a lebed pump, up 50% in two days. Odds are in my favor. Not an ideal play, though.

    IB now out of PSTI shares to short.
  • adairjm
    PSTI has a very low float. You could be down 15% right away.
  • lamecoder
    BigJim, you're getting smoked on DAVE.
  • Reaper
    Ross - your recent trading is not evidence of being patient.

    Short 1k PSTI. Ask went back to $1.85, sitting on a loss, but I'll wait it out. I like how it looks on LVL 2.
  • adairjm
    Rode MNLD from 3.28 to 3.91. Might try to scalp some on a dip or wait to short. Probably tomorrow.
  • Ross
    Hi Paradox,

    I messed up on USS and down a couple hundred. I bought MNKD @ 3.5 and got a sell @ 4 so I can get out. Can't short until I get my TOC account. I need to get a handle on shorting stocks so I am just trying to go long on a few stocks in the meantime. Not alot of money going in on anything at this point. I made money on Qualcom yesterday and sold all my stocks so I have more money to play with. I also will have 4K in my new TOC account to jump on the right opportunity. I am learning to be patient, It is not like I need to trade everyday like a crack addict. LOL!!
  • Getshorty
    Dump the bastards kmdom3, not that they are a monopoly or anything.

    Gunz.... take a deap breath... we can short it tomorrow : )
  • notesguy88
    Crap, PSTI already cracked 1.80. I thought about trying to reserve PSTI to short this morning but didn't do it. Oh well, and as YG pointed out, there are no shares available at TOS.
  • YoungGunz
    Damnit I am pissed...I need to stop being such a chicken shit. MNKD is up to $4 now. Thats what I get for intentionally trying to scalp and go long and get stuck in a dip. I got scared thinking it would just fade the rest of the day or even tank so i bailed.
  • TheParadox
    thanks
  • YoungGunz
    you have to have them put the order in you can't do it yourself. As for the 2 question I have no idea what you're doing.
  • TheParadox
    hey ROS, in new to TOS and i've been watching Timmy for sometime, so i can relate.

    Hey anyone, i got some questions:

    1) i talked to the dude and got shares reserved for mnkd and alus, but when i put a limit out of the range, i got a rejected... the TOS dude said i was good... this normal?

    2) so i put my limit @ $6 for MNKD, and its a SELL, yet my order is actually on the floor under "ask" am i just getting the bid/ask backwards, or is this normally where it should pop up?... i guess I've never really looked.
  • YoungGunz
    no shares os psti on ToS.
  • Reaper
    PSTI 3k shares @ IB.
  • kmdom3
    Schwab can be a little crap sometimes.
    With certain stocks they make you reserve at least $50,000 worth. I'm sure there's a better way around that.
  • Getshorty
    200 shares short BJGP at 5.92.....looks like first down day.

    Anybody else for the ride??
  • bestdeception
    Schwab said they had some available, but it keeps canceling my order. The way to reserve shares w/ Schwab is put the order in with the limit out of the money, then change the limit when you want to go short. They're looking into why they're available, but I still can't short.
  • Getshorty
    Out of ALU, scalped $236 on ALUS, just found out it tool me $35 in commissions to do the run-around. So 201 for waking up very early in the morning.

    1200 shares played for 21 cents each on average.

    NEXT !!!
  • anybody find shares of PSTI? could be a good short later today if it cracks $1.80
  • bigjimstradingpost
    I know you aren't talking about my DAVE short at $8 a couple minutes ago.
    I also know you won't agree as it's an earnings pop.
    I'll buy lunch if I was wrong....

    JIM
  • r u guys serious? shorting an illiquid stock down 15% on the day in the morning? have i taught u nothing? either short when it starts to go red or wait til end of the day to grab tomorrow probable drop...i hope this thing spikes back in your faces and teaches u a good lesson
  • patelt78
    I sold short ALUS at 2.00. Watched it go down very briefly to 1.80. I was like "woohooo!" Then, all of a sudden (within a minute or two), it was back at 1.94. So I entered a buy stop to cover at 1.99. In about 1 minute, it got filled. So, after commissions, it was about a $9 loss for me.

    I think the moral of the story is to short when the price drops with strong volume support.
  • YoungGunz
    I was being a tard and got in on mnkd long at 2.83 and it faded and I cut my loses fast and sold at 2.73. Oh well $40 down the toilet. Thats what i get for hoping to scalp it when its pretty much done with its breakout for the day.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    SHORT DAVE at $8
  • Reaper
    I win a gold star! Watched ALUS go down, knew it would happen. Didn't pull the trigger 'cause it isn't worth my time, especially not while I'm busy with other things.
  • Ross
    Still waiting for funding on my TOC account so I probably will just watch and learn today. I may jump into TMR if it breaks out. I got my trigger finger ready and will be watching all day. Good luck everyone. :)
  • sneaky30KDM
    FBTX has been showing strength coming off its handle. Traded 1/4 of avg daily volume already today. It's been a slow moving finance play for a few weeks, not really Sykes' style, but there looks to be little resistance before the $.90-1.00 range.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    short or long VISN???
  • VISN ...finally :)
  • yaktipper
    I tried.....couldn't get the trade through. I'm a whiny bitter bitch now.
  • bitches whining about LAUS low volume, sitll a 20% drop that was predictable, ideal trade woulda been to short at 2.10ish, cover at 1.90ish, just a small scalp, not worthwhile for most people
  • bigjimstradingpost
    OK
    Just bagged $771 on ETFC this morning.
    Starting to prowl the depths of the dead cat bouncers..
  • astaluss1
    on the level 2 chart here... . AS and BS does BS stand for buyers and AS stand for asking sellers?
  • yaktipper
    ALUS has pathetic volume but a large drop.
  • definitely milingz!
  • bigjimstradingpost
    First in First out with the most... If she fails to break out... I dump and move on. Nothing else barking at me this morning other than ETFC.
  • TheParadox
    yeah, a little quick big... try to focus... trades aren't something that happen everyday... they appear and you react. but i am optimistic on TMR too, you'll (hopefully) have 10 - 20 cents more on me.
  • patelt78
    ALUS dropping. time to short?
  • milingz
    If I could get you the fee + travel, would you entertain the idea sometime during the second semester? Jan-May? Im the head of the investment group, so I can probably make it happen.
  • whyt he hell would u do TMR at 3.20? not even close to a breakout
  • bigjimstradingpost
    In TMR at $3.20
  • college tour link works for most, we're still trying to put a whole tour together, otherwise my speaking fee is $1k + travel
  • YoungGunz
    yeah alus is disappointing me today. I was hoping for it to get a real big run up today.
  • milingz
    tim...saw the link to for your college tour, but doesnt work??

    I'd love to see you on my campus (John Carroll Uni, Cleveland OH) this year...last jewish dude we had was Bob Saggot...i think you're a lot funnier (he jokes about fucking his daughters friends, which is always funny though)
  • yaktipper
    Now it's back down........that was quite a swing.
  • yaktipper
    CNEX is running too
  • bigjimstradingpost
    ETFC starting her morning run
  • VISN looking for possible breakout...
  • Reaper
    ALUS unplayable. 0.30 spread? no thanx.
  • YoungGunz
    alus and mnkd both showing promise to run up higher today. Rooting for them now to short for later. :)
  • Mark
    Why is ALUS up the last couple of days anyway? Is there something we don't know? The earnings are coming out in a week.
  • i short any crap company that goes up too much, alus is just one i'm watching, hasnt proved it'll reverse yet
  • TheParadox
    Tim, i thought ALUS seemed kinda low, you seem to like shorting these stocks around 4 - $5 correct? does the lower volume and lower interest make these stocks "riskier" in terms of liquidity and Volatility?
  • bigjimstradingpost
    TMR ask is up to $3.38 premarket with only 3,000 shares available. Wouldn't surprise me if we see a spike to $3.50+ at the open. I may grab the 3,000 before the bell...
  • ALUS hopefully has a few more days, i'd love to short higher up
  • TheParadox
    yea i agree reaper, ALUS is not ideal it doesn't have the volume, MNKD look rip for the picking. TMR looks pretty nice too.
  • YoungGunz
    I haven't tried it yet either but you may be able to keep shares over night if you change your order to "good till canceled" it will stay working overnight and to the next day and if your offer gets filled i don't think they can stop it either.
  • Zenius
    Look at the recent volatility of ALUS. It doesn't look that bright. I guess it could be hard to cover if the have fallen since no one is willing to sell?
  • YoungGunz
    You don't have to adjust them constantly if you put your limit really high and then when you're actually ready to strike you do a cancel/replace at the real price.


    Also I think I know a way to get around the $3 limit for shorting on ToS if they're really enforcing it. I don't know if they are because alus is under 3 and they didn't mention anything but i think it is because my request was to put an order in for $6. So when you start the order as long as you don't tell the live rep a price under $3 the trading software won't stop you when you change the order yourself later.
  • bigjimstradingpost
    Im not going to try and short ALUS with you all but will enjoy the drop once you all start pulling the triggers...

    However, I am bullish as hell on ETFC today. I have traded in and out of that one a hundred times in the last two years and see it breaking $3.15 today easy. I'm pulling the trigger there in the premarket.

    I'll also join the Tim Rush to TMR if she breaks $3.25 today. I will look to pull the trigger at the open is she comes up strong...

    I think we all kinda played out USS yesterday but she may have a few 10-15 cent bounces for today.

    Good luck Sykesters!

    Big Jim
  • Mark
    ALUS just announced earnings release August 7th. Should shorts be concerned here?
  • TheParadox
    should i just use limit orders and adjust them constantly?
  • Reaper
    yeah, ALUS not ideal. I'll be watching TMR the most. I also put in a limit order @ TOS for ALUS, @ 20. No more accidental executions for me!
  • TheParadox
    got 2000 of ALUS and 1300 of MNKD on TOS... no son or cnex on TOS. Does anyone know a good way to setup "prefilled" orders for 2 stocks so you can execute either one at a moments notice on TOS?
  • Mark
    Two seperate orders at TOS. Reserved 1000 ALUS and 1800 ALUS. What scenario would make for good morning short on this one?
  • bestdeception
    Got 3K ALUS reserved. No SCON though.
  • Jake
    Reserved 600 ALUS from TOS--- I will watch TMR for a breakout.
  • notesguy88
    My TOS account has been funded! :-) Since it's small account, I reserved 500 shares. I'm starting small but that's OK.
  • me too, got 2k ALUS reserved, doubt i'll use em today though
  • Reaper
    Plenty of ALUS @ IB. 350k shares.
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