CHATROOM

Monday Morning Monotony

November 12, 2007 at 8:47 am
by Timothy Sykes

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Overall market doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do—afternoon panic possible, but not probable. Highfliers BIDU, ISRG, FSLR, SOHU, JRJC, SPWR all down nicely—flight to conservative investments like CYGT. Just kidding, but CYGT is acting nicely on continued volume, increasing the bid from .06 to .07 and now .09 and taking out the 0.09-.10 ask and pushing it all the way up to .17 (now a .13 guy just came in hoping to get lucky). Endeavor Acquisition (

AMEX: EDA ) breaking out—it’s actually American Apparel—very below the radar, but the stock moves soooooo slowly.

Bounce plays like CROX, LULU, VDSI and VMW are mixed—CROX coulda woulda shoulda been a nice gap-up play over the weekend, but now it’s fading, LULU’s price action is more boring than yoga, VDSI bounced nicely on an analyst upgrade (thought about it as a gap-up play on Friday, but its pathetic Friday afternoon action dissuaded me—I feel no guilt whatsoever about not being in it), VMW is trying to bounce, but it’s not easy.

DO NOT TRY TO PLAY E*TRADE Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: ETFC ) FOR A BOUNCE. Earnings misses are one thing (VDSI, CROX), but credit worries, writedowns, probable management resignations—who knows how far down the rabbit hole this goes (tax-loss selling season doesn’t help either). I won’t short it either because bounces are possible as news, articles and opinions will offered every few minutes this week and some of these developments might help the stock price. This goes to the core of my beliefs—never trade stocks that sooooo many others are trading because there’s too many varying opinions and there’s no way to get a high percentage trade off one way or the other.

No big winners looking ripe to short, one potential one, SMRT marches steadily higher. Other than that, nothing looks very interesting—I’ll keep researching…

Warning: TIM, Timothy Sykes, and the Easter Bunny have positions in CYGT.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider some of these stocks to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

 

Posted in CYGT

  • Reaper

    Plenty of all those but SCA and ERFW @ IB.

  • TheParadox

    SCA, RAMR, and SLRY @ TOS.

  • TheParadox

    hey reaper, how do you get your little avatar in there?

  • Reaper

    I forget. Tim explained it on some long-ago blog post.

  • Ross

    Good Mornin, 5:30 AM here in Seattle. It’s going to be a beautiful day :)

  • TheParadox

    Ross, it is… although tim more than likely won’t play it, iim looking at ramr and sca pretty hard. My bet is SCA is gonna tank again, but won’t rebound.

  • kusumo

    Paradox, change your avatar here and it will change it on this blog every time you post: http://www.gravatar.com/

  • Getshorty

    Paradox, SCA looks good to me only if it goes under Thursday $1.9 close

  • lamecoder

    I’d be careful with SCA. The chart looks good, but this is a news driven move, maybe warranted. They basically just got saved for the time being anyway:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2881520080729?rpc=44

  • YoungGunz

    SCA and RAMR out of shares at ToS. Got into work late couldn’t get to a computer when the watchlist came out. Took shares of TZOO and SLRY though just in case. Tomorrow I will be in early so hopefully there will be some better setups for tomorrow.

  • TheParadox

    coder -

    thanks for the tip, i wasn’t aware…

    Shorty -
    My thoughts were exactly, only if were to go below $1.9, my target was only like 25 cents.

  • TheParadox

    man, sca doesn’t look like a good play.

  • Getshorty

    Hell no

  • yaktipper

    APWR is a good entry point again after a wave of selling, if you are willing to hold for a week or two.

  • yaktipper

    APWR long, if you didn’t guess…..

  • Getshorty

    SLRY anybody?

  • bobbymapp

    Did anyone else have trouble with covestor lately? I didn’t change anything with my broker, but covestor stopped updating my trades. I just updated the broker info, but its just so weird because nothing had changed.

  • yaktipper

    Seemed like their updates were messed up since Friday.

  • Reaper

    WCI bankruptcy filing. Booyah!

  • TheParadox

    congrats reaper.

  • TheParadox

    slry seems too risky… its a little too illiquid for me, it looks kinda unpredictable too.

  • TheParadox

    Yak – APWR looks like it could breakdown…. do you think the past 2 hours of up trend will really pull it back up?

  • TheParadox

    i mean, i see the nice up trend, but you think oil might have something to do with that? its got a nice 2 – 5 dollar upside… i guess i just want more info about your rationale.

  • Reaper

    Paradox – I wasn’t in WCI, but I just like seeing overconfident pricks go down. My one fundamental short, SSBX, has done nicely though.

    USS down nice. Mike 13th was right to play it longer than Tim & us.

  • yaktipper

    No fundamental reason. Lots of excited people buying on hype and sellers selling on doomsday feelings. The hypesters always bring it back up, and the doomsday sellers always bring it back down. Longterm uptrend favors being long.

  • bigjimstradingpost

    A bunch of bogus class action suits brought against SOLR this weekend.
    Easy $2 gainer in the next couple weeks if you are looking for a $10 stock to go long short term…

  • TheParadox

    reaper -
    lmao, jeez, “like seeing overconfident pricks go down?”

    yea, you know what, it is fun being right, when you’ve taken your time and sought after a trade and there are hundreds (thousands) out there that would buy something like WCI for the sake of it being $1 thinking “last year it was $10… thats 10x on my money’. These people lost 50% of there money 2 minutes before the market opened. what a good lesson. It looks like there still some buyer… some people just don’t get it. I had a guy get on my case about blockbuster (BBI)… I’m waiting to see how that one works out.

    - Yak,
    Ok, i can believe that… i briefly looked at some message boards and site and it looks like a good, safe call.

  • Reaper

    Paradox – I did pick WCI as a short on Motley Fool CAPS, and am banking there. I am currently the #9 ranked player on there.
    http://caps.fool.com/player/everydayinvestor.aspx

  • TheParadox

    thats a nice chart, and Rank: 9 out of 60800 is just as impressive.

  • TheParadox

    bored.

  • lamecoder

    That’s pretty impressive.

  • Ross

    Nice work Reap. Glad your here to share your knowledge. I am going to probably hold out and stay liquid today unless something breaks and people are getting excited. Still waiting for my TOS account to fund. TOS moved my money out my bank account but it is limbo-land now. I have 3500 to start with so most trades are going to be 500 to 1000 which leaves me just enough to play a few trades at a time. I still have 2000 in my Scottrade account to do a trade today. I figured I would keep both accounts active with funds in both.

  • yaktipper

    I’m 30,000 out of 60,000 on CAPS. Shorted oil and went long on financials at a bad time.

    9 is just amazing.

  • TheParadox

    ross, i feel your pain… i moved 10k from my broker to a bank and then to TOS… tim made the USS call, right on, and i watched it tank and people started to recommend (reaper) the long term hold on the short… it was pretty sad to watch. after it was at 2.50, i got my funds released.

    looking at sca and ramr is like watching a flat line. they just looks ready to do something drastic… the fed meeting is tomorrow… doesn’t look like earnings are coming out. Its like someone could sneeze and acidently send it in any direction.

    I got so bored i started to watch CNBC on TOS… then i realized how useless it was. talking about GM. GM looks like a rebound to buy in at, a 50% gain i think at best. Oh, and 5 million homes in America have no one living in them.

  • TheParadox

    lol, reaper, you WCI is being talked about on cnbc… your such a nerd.

  • Reaper
  • PCola

    hey Tony Ellis, what are your thoughts on TMR now? I just jumped in at 2.82, hoping for a bounce off of support, but if it drops below 2.75 I think I will switch to a short. Are you still holding?

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    PC, u’re asking for pain, look how it did when it began to roll over last november

  • http://www.heyidea.com Sweeney

    If I didn’t watch Tim’s DVD I wouldn’t have ever taken profits on VISN same day… damn glad I did!

  • TheParadox

    good insight about geeks

    Y’all learn some stuff from this post:
    http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=76331&t=01007146184382914537

    its kinda cheezy, but if you were a complete moron about financial structure, you could watch it secretly.

  • YoungGunz

    Some of you guys are starting to do a lot of reaching to rationalize your trades…You need to act like you’re standing on the top of a rickety ladder and if you decide to reach out too far you’ll tip right over and bust your head. Take a deep breath and let the setups come to you don’t go chasing them.

  • TheParadox

    YoungGunz, i know you’ve said that before, and like usual, your right… we need not to find out the setups, they will come to use when we see them.

  • Ross

    Hi Paradox,

    I am still sitting on USS stock, about 150 shares. I was hoping it may go up so I can recover a little of my losses but so far I am down over 50% The question is should I just dump it at whatever loss and just move on or leave the shares there and go long. I screwed up really bad and don’t even know what I was thinking. Were talking small change but it still hurts. I am learning patience and my TOS account is supposed to funded tomorrow.

  • TheParadox

    The thing i have learned (the hard way) is what your learning right now.

    once upon a time ago, i was hunting for value investments and undermined the current economic condition we are in now… around September of 07 when the economy started to turn sour i bought CFC, countrywide financial at $20.25, a month or so later, it dropped down to 15.15 when i added in. the 52w high was 45. It was simple: things couldn’t be that bad as every made it out. My first bear market. I sold my “small” 5k position out and recovered 1.2k, about a 76% loss months later! MONTHS. It felt so bad. about a week later, the deal from BAC was made.

    there are 2 sides to this story, you’ll get screwed either way. You need to learn what everyone needs to learn… 1) when you wrong, admit it and without any hesitation, stop the loss… i try not to take more than a 5% loss now…

    2) when your right, run with it… a book i read did a survey on mutual fund managers and found if they had held there position like 10% – 20% longer (time wise), they would have made more money on the average. that human instinct to take a quick gain and let a loss linger simple kills us.

    look at Tim! He is a perfect example: He gets out way too early (on the average), but sometimes for good reason: volatility… But none the less, Look at what happened for USS, he was 100% correct and he knew every single second. If you told him to wait 20% longer on the trade, he would have made alot more… he even stated in the email. you’d be a genus.

    Kill loses quick, don’t let the market tell you your wrong, you can’t predict the future, you can’t control the prices, all you can do is act.

    when you get out, don’t get back in, otherwise you letting the market make your decisions. You need to control yourself. A trader on Wall street warriors said if he starts losing a good sum of money, he simply stops trading and takes a break. I’d take the day off. trade with a clear mind… youngGunz said it best: take a deep breath and let the setups come to you.

  • phil235

    Anyone watching IBOT?

  • Ross

    Hi Paradox,

    Words of wisdom, thanks for sharing. I did take the day off and spending my time sharpening my knowledge and learning from you people.

  • YoungGunz

    RAMR looks like it is losing upward momentum. Hope to see it’s first down day on Tuesday. Already reserved shares this morning just incase.

  • YoungGunz

    crap forgot it was a financial. Oh well its an easy to borrow stock anyways.

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