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How I know I’ll Never Be A Great Trader

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Fri 16th of Nov, 2007 02:07:06 PM

TIM $14,067 (up $87 on the day, $1,269 on the week)

No positions, 100% cash over the weekend

Today I proved what I have long suspected and openly talked about—I’m good at trading, but definitely not great. I’ve been following QSC and XRM, taking a $130ish loss on QSC yesterd

ay and holding 300 shares short of XRM into today.

After my flight landed at 9:30am, it took me nearly an hour to get back to my apartment and when I did, I saw XRM down a solid 5% to the $5.40 range. I immediately bought to cover my 300 shares (at $5.43 since there seemed to be some support in the $5.35 range), taking an easy 6% gain ($110ish after commissions) on my $1,750 investment. This was a perfect trade from start to finish as I only risked 15%ish of my assets (conservative for me) and I was never really worried because the stock gradually downtrended (quite perfectly) throughout my 2-day holding period. This is a shining example of a PennyStocking play (just wish the trading volume had been greater–not that I was concerned at TIM’s current asset level).

Do I still think XRM heads lower—yes—but I’m not gonna worry about it because I took my 6% gain and I’m out. I know, I know, my target was the low $5 range, but you gotta remember Fridays are difficult days to stay short (as evidenced by XRM’s subsequent late-day bounce (even though it couldn’t hold it)).

My after-hours decision to buy to cover my 500 shares short of QSC yesterday at $4.35 definitely hurt, but it’s scary how well I knew there’d be an early morning spike today and that it wasn’t worth the risk holding overnight. In the afternoon, I actually ended up flipping my negative stance on the stock by buying 800 shares at $4.70 (a rather sizable 27% position for TIM) on the breakout (of the previous day and today’s initial spike). How could I just flip like that? It’s easy–the price action told me to be bullish! In time, I still think this stock trades lower, but I’ve been wrong before and I knew the gradually uptrending price action would scare many shorts into buying to cover, helping the breakout occur.

Well, I was right that the stock did breakout (eventually going to $5+ within an hour), but I got scared out due to the price spread ($4.68 x $4.76?!?! I hate AMEX stocks!), selling my 800 shares at $4.76. It was a puny little $30 gain (after commissions) and at that moment, I realized I’ll never be a great trader—I simply lack the patience/bravado/confidence to profit from my convictions—I’m just a scalper (which isn’t that bad considering it’s how I made my millions in the first place—I’ll just never make tens or hundreds of millions (at least not from trading, hehehehehe). This was a $200 gain if I had the guts to hold and even though the price is now waaay off the day’s highs (making the breakout a fakeout breakout, a very bearish sign (but I’m not risking it)), those highs were still made and they were predictable! TIM Lesson: Friday short covering, breakout and momentum buying all mixed together are a recipe for higher stock prices.

And, this is why I aim to be a great teacher rather than a great trader/investor. More importantly, this is why I think my teaching will create great traders/investors who will make far more money than I ever could/have. And that thought is what drives me.

PS Other stocks I’m watching—CYGT, good buying, volume still anemic, I’m happy I sold TIM out at 11 cents. (If you read my book, you’ll see this is a special situation and is not representative of the stocks I typically trade (I usually stress liquidity/volatility—I only bought TIM in because the risk-reward ratio along with the short-term catalysts made it worthwhile). GSOL—good bounce, glad I’m not a fundamental short seller—I’d lose my mind wondering how this stock could ever go up here. SMRT—hey, it’s still a good short—oh well; risk-reward wasn’t great. CSIQ—hey, you finally managed to hold your daily gains, congrats! Still too steep a chart for me to sleep well at night if I were long.

Warning: Timothy Sykes and the Easter Bunny have positions in CYGT.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider some of these stocks to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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  • bestdeception
    Who's holding through tonite??
  • new post:

    http://www.timalerts.com/2008/08/12/covered-api...

    and no i dont think a squeeze will happen, most folks seem to know i suck on my exits!
  • TheParadox
    ok, and im gonna get queeze with all the buy backs.
  • YoungGunz
    Crosses fingers for a gap down and morning panic. Still plenty of time till the close, anything can happen.
  • patelt78
    Yahoo finance states that APII earning announcement is Thursday, Aug. 14.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=APII
  • be-the-ball
    Fair point Reaper, I will give you that.
  • Reaper
    BTB -- what Citron criticizes does not always go down. However, he has broken more accounting scandals and frauds than any SEC investigator, district attorney, journalist, or other short seller. Just in the last year he nailed ARTC on accounting gimmickry and he caught HSOA (home soluations of america), which was basically an outright fraud. ARTC is down 2/3 from its highs and HSOA is down 90%. I have counted at least five cases where people have been fined by the SEC after he criticized them. His long-term record is great.
  • Ross
    Going the wrong way need to ride it out
  • Getshorty
    I am considering changing my name to Getsqueezed
  • Getshorty
    NO, I DON'T READ ALL THE POSTS

    I do read many of them , but for sure I read the highlighted tim's post.

    So if I have a doubt I ask whatever I want.
  • AdamN
    Short CHC @ $3.11
  • be-the-ball
    Reaper,

    He isn't that good, by my count less than 1 in 3 of his picks has performed this year.

    Doesn't Mark Cuban sign his paycheck now?
  • YoungGunz
    So everyone planning to hold into the close?
  • be-the-ball
    Get shorty, post #38 above. also #65 above


    jeez, don't you people read....
  • Reaper
    Blog spam alert!!!!!!!!!!!!

    For those of you who don't know who StockLemon aka Citron Research aka Andrew Left is, please take a look at the following post on my blog:

    http://www.goodevalue.com/2008/05/23/andrew-lef...

    I have written about Left many times and you should read what I have written; simply put, he is the best short seller / analyst of small caps in the world. To read his blog, go to:

    http://www.citronresearch.com
  • amed was never an alert, i simply posted it in comments
  • Ross
    I don't think Tim is trading AMED, he said he was too late so there never was an alert
  • Getshorty
    AMED?

    Tim Something is screwed with the alerts, I got the APII Alert but not the amed.
  • AdamN
    Tim, thoughts on CHC? Looks like a fader to me.
  • be-the-ball
    schmuck,

    he found the play by paying attention to stocklemon
  • milingz
    we're paying him...good incentive :)
  • schmuck
    be the ball dont be a smart ass...im asking how he found the play, or are u so smart already that u dont have to learn?
  • Ross
    @ DDOPS

    I hope USS keeps going up cause I held onto 150 shares and want to recover @ 3.95. I may raise my limit order a little more now. I would say sell and take the money but that wouldn't help me. ;)
  • be-the-ball
    AMED in the comments above. citron research, used to be stocklemon, nailed them earlier.

    jeez, tim, you have the patience of a saint to deal with these questions
  • Ross
    AMED is out of my league but sure looks like a nice dive.

    APII is heading in the right direction :)
  • schmuck
    tim, how did u know that AMED was tanking? or was it on your watchlist already?
  • ddopps
    I got 500 of USS @ 2.93, Trying to decide if I should get out today or wait till tomorrow? Any thoughts?
  • milingz
    amed alert not on the blog?
  • be-the-ball
    yes TIm, AMED a beautiful alert. I was away from my desk when you put it out there
  • APII and AMED tanking beautifully, i hesittated on AMED though
  • AdamN
    Down she goes....
  • Mark
    APII daily candlestick looks soooo nice. Nice and black today. This'll be a fun ride down tomorrow. Thanks Tim.
  • Getshorty
    If this was optionable I would buy both calls and puts, this thing is gonna explode either up or down, you can smell the anticipation, nobody doing anything waiting for the price action......
  • TheParadox
    There is nothing wrong with excitement or fear & anxiety while trading; its when you give into them or more specifically, when you give into them that matters the most... I got in at 3.20 but im not worried, the 8k x 4.8k bid/ask is a little disheartening but i think if it can get past these 3.20 dudes, things will be much better.
  • mbaugh
    Damn! I was going to short AMED at 61.99 and decided not to. just watched it fall further.
  • patelt78
    If APII doesn't drop much, anyone got the stones to hold overnight. (considering that earnings are coming up)
  • milingz
    stalling out at 3.19 every time
  • astaluss1
    if it drops below this mark in the next few mins... its going way down
  • kelvin
    is apii moving at all ?
  • Reaper
    Get a grip, YoungGunz.
  • YoungGunz
    damn finally started going down a little again and sure enough stops at 3.20 again, my entry point grrrr. Come on fucker just take a dump already!
  • mbaugh
    anyone else here riding USS, strong close today, it may continue to run tomorrow.
  • be-the-ball
    just longs playing games
  • TheParadox
    yeah, the 25k kinda scared me
  • kelvin
    haha .. they are gone anyway .
  • be-the-ball
    alllright who's the asshole with 25K to buy at 3.19?
  • Reaper
    Sweet, the rest of my short order in APII got hit at 3.3
  • kelvin
    NOBL yeah!!1
  • TheParadox
    lol, it looks like it just push it down too
  • stocklemon out negative on AMED
  • Mark
    The routine is Tim shorts, I short, Tim covers, I cover, I make hundreds, but I miss on thousands by not leting it ride only one or two more days.
  • YoungGunz
    it was starting to fade when he jumped in. Maybe he pulled it early and it was going to recover and the alert pushed it down 20 cents but it also did the same thing yesterday. it tanked and recovered some then faded into the close. then today it gapped up on the open and went sideways till now.
  • be-the-ball
    nah merb, the drop is cause 3.40 was a perfect break point for stops to be run and shorts to initiate. not just Tim and his followers. It'll break again here this afternoon, just gotta be patient.
  • be-the-ball
    Tim,

    Sent their IR an email and also left a voicemail, they were "in a meeting"

    Will let you know when I hear anything back
  • merbman427
    BTB-

    Thanks, good to know. Still don't think I'm gonna pull the trigger on this one, it just reached 3.29 and the MMs are inching their bids up. Possible that the 40 cent drop was entirely due to the TIM Alert? I'm new here, so I don't want to offend anybody (including you, Tim), but the timing is too perfect to be coincidental, and it's been rising steadily since.
  • YoungGunz
    man, you cen tell when tim has an active trade, this site starts to crawl. must be getting a lot of views refreshing constantly.
  • TheParadox
    mbaugh is right, we should kinda "organize" a slow pull out...
  • TheParadox
    In at 3.20
  • YoungGunz
    Yeah, I am getting better at being ok with seeing a little negative in my P/L. Hopefully it can break through this floor to get some downward momentum heading towards the close.
  • mbaugh
    one thing to remember, if everyone covers at the same time, we will push up the price even further, thats the one problem with having so many on the alerts.
  • be-the-ball
    merb,

    when AMTD makes you call in they give you the internet rate for the trade.
  • one thing to note, 2 different sites say APII will report during market hours tomorrow or thursday...netiher confirmed by company, why dont some of u call the company IR and see if they'll confirm which day, if any, they'll report
  • merbman427
    I think I'm gonna sit this one out...I was in the shower and caught the alert 10 minutes late, but I'm not liking how it's hovering in the 3.18-3.25 range.

    Also, you have to call TDAmeritrade to place trades in APII, and I don't feel like paying a $45 commission. I should really fund that empty TOS account I have sitting...
  • mbaugh
    If it breaks 3.08 It may close red.
  • be-the-ball
    you are the reason Youngunz. Too many scared newbies shorting these things and they get shaken out and the slightest hint of strength. Squeezes the stock slightly higher.

    Patience
  • kelvin
    i shorted nobl as well
  • mbaugh
    Nice Big Black candle, I say it falls further before the close.
  • Ross
    I am in with 300 @ 3.25
  • patelt78
    Reaper, you're right. I think I may have been over confident based on the alert.
  • YoungGunz
    I swear to god every time I trade the thing hits resistence at my entry point. Why can't I get a clean breakdown past my entrance so I don't have to stress out so much. Every time this happens I've been scared into covering and then it tanks.
  • Reaper
    That was a horrible entry patelt78. Bad risk/reward.
  • taxwise1
    sold 775 o apii @3.20
  • YoungGunz
    Man, darn site kept saying i was posting too quickly...it was like 30 mins since the last time i posted anything on either site.
  • patelt78
    Shorted at 3.14. This is obviously not an ideal entry, but we know how these things fall. I'll be surprised if I lose money on this trade.
  • kelvin
    quick divers.. maybe coz of us ?
  • be-the-ball
    that's OK TIM, hold for a $1000 gain to get you over the 25K mark!
  • milingz
    got it at 3.19...bitch dropped while i was chatting with TOS
  • be-the-ball
    3.20 is a fine entry for short VS
  • i hate these quick divers...i gotta hold now for a day or two no matter what or else i get labelled a pump and dumper
  • VS
    oh.. i missed it. I did not get your alert mail (this mail).

    but got previous alert mail and morning alert mail.

    is it good to short at 3.20 ?
  • YoungGunz
    In with 300 shares at 3.20 12:08pm. 3 minutes after the alert hit my email. thats a pretty big swing since you got in at 3.40. Good luck everyone hope this fella plays nice with us.
  • gil
    hi not getting your alerts please change my email to
    gilalchuli@gmail.com
  • astaluss1
    sold $3.36 also
  • Reaper
    Wow -- I had a moment of sheer terror as I realized I'd adjusted my short of CHC and not APII. Luckily I canceled it before it executed! I got short @3.30.
  • kusumo
    Sold at $3.36.
  • mo4453
    shorted @ $3.25
  • be-the-ball
    short at 3.2

    had to call in to AMTD to place the order, caused a delay. oh well
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