CHATROOM

Friday’s Frontrunners

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I’m looking at 5 main stocks to play tomorrow—probably some kind of play towards the market close since I’m not allowed to day trade. I don’t care what kind of market we’re in, Friday afternoons are always scary for short sellers and thus, short squeezes are quite common and predictable.

The top two potential Friday afternoon short squeeze plays are two former momentum stocks that have both gotten decimated afte

r earnings, even though neither report was that bad. (Welcome to the land of exponential gainers, where anything less than perfection is failure!) Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX ) and Vasco Data (Nasdaq: VDSI )—trying to pick the bottom on these two is impossible so don’t bother trying. I can’t imagine there’s much downside left on either of them, but there’s really no way to tell; in fact, the only thing sure is that they won’t be top performers again anytime soon. Ideally, one of them or maybe even both will show some stabilization and only then will dip buyers begin to enter and shorts will get nervous and cover. No matter how many times you play this kind of pattern, each one is different so don’t try to play them exactly like you might’ve done in the past.

I’m also looking at two other stocks that have been hit hard, though these companies have many more problems and their declines have been very gradual. Stein Mart (Nasdaq: SMRT ) and Accuride (NYSE: ACW ), both surged on Thursday 14% and 10%, respectively and I’m hoping their strength continues so I can short right into it! SMRT reported earnings that were pretty terrible, but wall Street was expecting something even more terrible so the stock went up. ACW had no good news, but their stock price had fallen 30% in the past few days and 50% in the past few weeks. They reported pretty crappy earnings a few weeks ago and the price action exemplifies a perfect technical breakdown. That’s chart worthy—see below! But like RCH the other day, this strength is probably temporary and will make for some good shorting. I won’t be too aggressive in my shorting though because these moves could be the beginnings of the bottoming process so I’m just watching for now.

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Last, but not least, the only strong stock among all these failures—China Voice Holdings (Other OTC: CHVC), a Chinese telecom, wireless blah blah blah, they keep pumping out PRs every few days kind of play. Supposedly getting audited and moving to a big exchange, I wouldn’t bet against them (look at AOB, yup, some of these plays actually do make it). This one’s surged from 50 cents to $2 in 2 weeks and the move has become rather steep. Probly gonna drop, but I don’t know how I’m gonna play it, considering it’s not shortable–it’s on my watchlist.

And I obviously watching all the other stocks I mentioned earlier in the week, but nothing is looking too worthy of TIM’s hard earned capital. Oooooh, I can’t wait to show you guys some perfect charts, they’ll come around eventually, hang in there!

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  • YoungGunz

    Looks like a lot of big buyers around 5.50 range one popped in at 3000 5.53 another 3100 5.55 and now 5600 5.52.

    So if those guys get taken out will it give it resistance or will it give it more downward momentum?

  • notesguy88

    It’s nearly the 75 cents/share profit for Tim now!

  • notesguy88

    I take it back, it’s gone past it now. :-)

  • PCola

    Congrats to those that shorted. I thought we’d get one last surge and didn’t pull the trigger. Oh well I’d rather miss out on some gainers I am not comfortable with than lose money on ones that I knew I shouldn’t get into.

  • Reaper

    Completely missed that spike, still took $102 in profit on the way day. Just closed out my position ’cause I got a doctor’s appt. Hopefully the thing stays about even until the afternoon so that I can short it again.

  • notesguy88

    Nothing wrong with a $102 profit for the day. I’d be static if I could average $300 – $500 profit on a weekly basis for starters!

  • kusumo

    Missed the short squeeze this morning. Out of the position now and profited $295 after commissions. Thanks Tim.

  • Reaper

    notesguy — if you had my account size I don’t think you’d be happy with $100/day. I’m aiming for an average of $500 per day with $2k/day on good plays.

  • YoungGunz

    shorted 200 shares at 4.97 covered 4.70 my second Timalert trade in 2 days made $54…TimAlert subscription paid for.

  • notesguy88

    dang bad english there… meant ecstatic! haha

  • Davey

    made 300ish on MKTY on 900 shares Short @5ish covered at 4.67ish. Still have 600 shares to use later if needed since my fill of 1500 didn’t go thru. Reaper, whats ur account size?

  • Reaper

    Davey – $8.3m … seriously, though, I don’t give that out. I’ll just say it is bigger than Tim’s.

  • notesguy88

    Reaper, I’d be shooting for those numbers too of course but I gotta start somewhere. LOL

  • bestdeception

    Still holding my MKTY short. Any other plans anyone taking today? Jumped in and out of WM yesterday PM and again this AM for a couple hundred.

  • Davey

    no prob reaper…i actually was going to change it and ask above 25K or less to not be too personal, but u answered that. I’m at about 24K by the way, trying to get to that 25K mark.

  • Davey

    there goes MKTY, congrats to those who held….Would have re-entered on the crack of 4.50 but the SEC won’t allow it…Thanks guys

  • YoungGunz

    I have one day trade left for the week. Hopefully there will be a nice setup developing going into the close today so I can make some money tomorrow and not burn it till later. Either way if history repeats there has only been one Friday Tim trade in the last 2 months or so.

  • YoungGunz

    Yeah, if I wasn’t at the 2k margin wall I may have held longer but I wanted to take a profit and get started on the right foot.

  • http://www.test.timothysykes.com timothysykes

    new post:

    http://www.timalerts.com/2008/07/23/covered-mkty-at-473-anted-453-good-problem-to-have-15ish-profit/

    leave your 1 sentence trade details/$ profit (or loss) in the comments section so i can highlight them!