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Finance, Fun and the Unbearable Idiocy of Investors

Posted by Timothy Sykes on Mon 19th of Nov, 2007 12:26:39 PM

I get these kinds of comments so often, it’s time I devote a full blog post to them.

In response to my post about returning to LA and reminiscencing about my last trip, Ken writes:

“Would I read IBD if the lead story was about girls or the where abouts of the writer. I think not. The beauty of the internet, is there are so many choices to obtain quality information. For me, to spend time commentin

g is rare. I typically just move on.”

Ken,

Thanks for commenting – your opinion is welcome (seriously). But you, like many in the finance world, have been brainwashed into thinking you must have up-to-the-minute business news / investment ideas / guidance at all times. That’s fine – IBD and all the publications like it are great resources for investors, but, in addition to being a resource for investors, my website aims to be more personal and to teach you to think differently.

Since there aren’t any worthy trading opportunities right now, I posted this fun little aside. Let me guess, you wanted some stock picks, right? You’re probably fully invested right now and want some guidance as to where I think the markets are headed, right?

Here’s my market prediction: I have no idea where the market is headed – I don’t play those juvenile guessing games, I simply take advantage of opportunities when they come about. While you and all the other idiot bulls are panicking, I’m 100% cash and loving every second of it–sitting by my hotel pool, sipping my overpriced drink, surrounded by superficial Hollywood-types, scantily clad golddiggers and smog.

But if you really want a whole bunch of investment ideas, check out the latest Blog Carnival of Stocks, of which one of my posts is featured.

Here’s another comment from a guy named John:

“Timothy…You barely have any depth to your shallow personality-which is fueled by your raging ego. Your recent comments on a blog where you are trying to obtain some credibilty in the financial community completely validates this….blah blah blah…Enjoy the ride while it last – you are way past your 15 minutes.”

John,

Thanks for writing in – may I suggest you read my book before rushing to judgment? Being shallow and having an outsized ego – please, that was so 2004. You’ll discover – as nearly all my actions suggest- that I could care less about financial community credibility. I think it’s a community filled with idiots, snobs, cokeheads, liars, frauds, superficialites and more importantly and potentially dangerously, greedy people whose infatuation with leverage will probably be the ruin of our economy and ultimately, our society.

But I’m just a stock trader so what do I know? My goal is simply to cut through all the industry-BS and show people how to speculate without using leverage. Conservative financial speculation – I know, it’s a crazy concept, but I truly believe in it.

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  • Mark
    no problem. thanks
  • no mark, i have no advice whatsoever, i have no idea who u r, your goals, your risk tolerance, your experience, all i can do is show u my trades
  • Mark
    Tim, any advice for us who aren't in yet? I've got 2000 apii reserved.
  • thebabyfacedtrader
    I would like to short APII in the morning, but I dont think I will be able to reserve any shares. This will be my first time trying to reserve shares since changing to TOS. How early do I have call?
  • mbaugh
    Hey Timmay, I told ya so! You told me i made a bad choice holding this POS turd last night. Now we know its an even bigger TURD than we first thought! Damn this company sucks!
  • Ross
    That Video is funny
  • bestdeception
  • bestdeception
    Here's more info also.

    APII Action Products updates proposal to acquire BE Overseas Investment Group (3.19 -0.26) -Update-

    The co announces that it has reached an understanding regarding the amount and form of consideration to be paid for the purchase of BE Overseas Investment Group. Subject to closing of the proposed acquisition; as consideration for all of the membership interests in BE Overseas, APII, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Action Healthcare Products, will pay 500,000 (five hundred thousand) shares of restricted APII common stock. The transaction is expected to close by the end of August. The transaction is subject to standard conditions of closing. Following the closing, management plans to hold an investor web-cast laying out strategies for sustainable growth and profitability.
  • jeepee2008
  • YoungGunz
    I should say they were all different earlier. they must get a little screwed up handling after hours info for a 30 mins or so after the close.
  • YoungGunz
    thank goodness earnings were bad. What site do you guys look at for the most accurate after hours prices. my thinkdesktop didn't seem to be showing realtime afterhours bid and ask or any of the trades. yahoo, msn, and google are all different.
  • jeepee2008
    younggunz - yep that spike did it it for me, I had my finger at the trigger and then bam up to 3.19! some party pooper got scared? :-) anyway lets what happens tomorrow, my guess is it will tank further.
  • bestdeception
  • bestdeception
    Wow....this is depressing reading the 10-Q. Maybe this bad boy will make it back to 50 cent. That'd be a sweet little profit. I held overnight, and will continue to hold. Good job all those that jumped back in short.
  • milingz
    ok...ok...got in on the action at 3.05

    small position of only 300 shares (all i could get in AH)
  • KetchupThief
    Could somebody please post a link for the earnings statement? Thanks!
  • yes this is why they wre a 50 cent company before this manipulated runup
  • Reaper
    So shitty I even shorted a bit more (not much more) A/H @ 3.05.

    If it hadn't been for the money they finally collected from the lawsuit receivable their negative cash flow from operations would have been -$3m for the last 6 months. With that kind of negative cash flow they could easily end up in bankruptcy in another 6 months.

    Their balance sheet looks really bad: current assets of $4.2m vs. current liabilities of $3.1m.
  • bestdeception
    Now the earnings are making it to the WS screens. This just crossed Briefing.

    16:16 APII Action Products reports qtr ended June 30 EPS of ($0.18) vs ($0.05) a year ago; revs declined 21% YoY to $1.16 mln (3.19 -0.25)
  • so beautiful, what shitty earnings i think i'll write a blog post about it :)
  • YoungGunz
    yeah its at 3.10 last i saw on yahoo AH
  • Reaper
    YoungGunz - that spike was simply from short covering. Don't worry.
  • Reaper
    Covered half my position @ 3.022 (after comissions), average price 3.21. Profit of 378. Realized profit on the day of $70. I still have 2100 shares short.

    If anyone wants to cover I've got 1k ask @ 3.19 and another 1k @ 3.24 (after hours).
  • be-the-ball
    not much of a drop for that big of a loss. Might be related to their acquisition which isn't nec. a bad thing.

    good luck tomorrow lads, hope to see Tim over 25K so we can stop with this pussy stuff.
  • YoungGunz
    damnit, wtf was that spike at the last second to 3.19$
  • YoungGunz
    Tim you front runner, its your fault APII tanked into the close!!! :)





    crap where's the sarcasm emoticon?
  • be-the-ball
    Holding through earnings= Putting your money on red at the roulette wheel.

    Looks like red hit, we have a winner...
  • Ross
    Dam I should of put my limit @ 3.4
  • bestdeception
    Just came out w/ earnings. .18/share loss. Have no idea what the estimate was. Going through the 10-Q now.
  • YoungGunz
    sell sell sell jewyahh!
  • YoungGunz
    go go go fall fall fall
  • YoungGunz
    here we go back down to 3.27...just hoping for it to tank into the close for a gapdown tomorrow!
  • Ross
    I am going to sit back and watch. I did good on ROYL today so I am up for the day. Bought yesterday @ 5.55 sold @ 6.02 Should of held on but didn't want to get greedy.
  • mbaugh
    I'm gonna watch URRE as a possible short for tomorrow.
  • mbaugh
    ross, if you don't feel good about the trade stay out. This one is a bitch, someone is fucking with the price since its thinly traded.
  • MikeY
    I think I'll stay out as well...
  • Ross
    I am out, someone snagged my stop limit @ 3.35 Lost $30 plus trade fees. Should I get back in is the question?
  • milingz
    i didnt join in on this one. good luck boys
  • YoungGunz
    fucks sake. jumped 12 cents to 3.34
  • bestdeception
    Those that played AMED....

    14:38 AMED AMEDISYS: Hearing AMED upgraded to Buy at Wachovia intraday (51.19 -3.02) -Update-
  • YoungGunz
    wow volume is all but dried up
  • be-the-ball
    No on NVAX, never played that one
  • whomee9
    I don't think that Tim would be pressured into making a bad trade. He knows very well that no trade is better than a losing trade. :)
  • mbaugh
    Okay timmay, let's flush this turd for good!
  • LOL there's no pressure, i just take it one pump at a time, just like i'm always saying...this will be its first red day, usually good to short on first red day, simple. with this one, there's just added risk
  • TPA_Trader
    It seems as if this followed the same pattern as yesterday when it fell to around $3.09/3.10 and then started to go up again. Is there a reason for this?
  • mbaugh
    I think timmay feels pressured to do a trade so that he can keep growing his business.
  • YoungGunz
    No I have a feeling we'll see him cover 30mins before the close shortly before a squeeze into the close. Man today feels like a Tuesday.
  • mbaugh
    BTW- be-the-ball, did you use to own NVAX?
  • mbaugh
    be the ball, I agree with you. I've been doing this a long time. You are correct that it is a risky trade and you are smart for staying out of it. I'm willing to take a loss on it since this shit stinks so bad, i have my mental stop at 4 I realize it can gap up over that, but I believe the odds favor a sinking turd.
  • astaluss1
    i think hes gonnna hold overnight going balls out into earnings... yea tim!!


    there gonna tank tomorrow anyway....
  • mbaugh
    timmay, don't use up your daytrades on this POS!
  • be-the-ball
    Forgetting that they are a POS company for a second.

    Stocks usually move up or down into EPS announcements for a reason. 9 times out of 10 that reason is that there are no secrets on wall street and somebody has been tipped off to the earnings. Happens every friggin' day.

    just sayin'...
  • YoungGunz
    arg thought there would be some relief when it came back to 3.20...now back to 3.27
  • YoungGunz
    we could have just saw a tim alert dip and it will keep its slow fade that it was going on before the alert. thats just a theory, don't even know if I believe it either.
  • taxwise1
    Let's hope for the hero!
  • YoungGunz
    At this rate we may very well see the first loss for tim since starting timalerts or bad earnings leaks and it tanks. He'll either be the hero or the goat.
  • notesguy88
    It's back up to 3.30.
  • YoungGunz
    wow same shit all over again. why wont this fucker just fall?
  • astaluss1
    i bought that 3.19... was shorted since yesterday at 3.36... fuck that im out!
  • taxwise1
    Still holding from yesterday @ 3.20-I can buy now and break even but hopefully it will drop below 3.
  • kelvin
    i just cover this morning . and now you short ..
  • astaluss1
    they had lead recall last month... im hoping the last month was a pump to an eventual failed earnings report that drop this bitch like 2 poinns
  • short 2,000 good call, i gotta edit the post
  • mbaugh
    That makes it even a better short...what a joke go from toys to medical supplies, either way the company is a total POS!
  • KetchupThief
    I'm in for 212 shares @ 2.25. Hopefully it will make up my losses from yesterday.

    BTW...this is evanmost. I changed my username this morning.
  • be-the-ball
    they aren't just a toy company. The are now a medical devices company as well
  • mbaugh
    I'm still holding mine 1500 @ 3.35 from yesterday


    POS toy company!
  • be-the-ball
    not going to chase it. Good luck to all who play it.

    Tim, how many shares are you short?
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